Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Hongqiao, Indika Energy</li>
<li>In the US, advance retail sales rose 1.4% m-o-m (1.4% e / 0.2% p) in March, the highest increase in over two years, driven by consumer front-loading of car purchases and electronics ahead of tariff implementation.</li>
<li>Retail sales excluding autos edged down to 0.5% (0.4% e / 0.7% revised p), while the retail sales control group (excluding autos, gas, food services and building materials) slowed to 0.4% (0.6% e / 1.3% revised p). Separately, industrial production slid 0.3% (-0.2% e / 0.8% revised p) in March, with capacity utilisation falling to 77.8% (77.9% e / 78.2% p)</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Hongqiao, Indika Energy
In the US, advance retail sales rose 1.4% m-o-m (1.4% e / 0.2% p) in March, the highest increase in over two years, driven by consumer front-loading of car purchases and electronics ahead of tariff implementation.
Retail sales excluding autos edged down to 0.5% (0.4% e / 0.7% revised p), while the retail sales control group (excluding autos, gas, food services and building materials) slowed to 0.4% (0.6% e / 1.3% revised p). Separately, industrial production slid 0.3% (-0.2% e / 0.8% revised p) in March, with capacity utilisation falling to 77.8% (77.9% e / 78.2% p)


Trung Nguyen

<ul>
<li>Indika Energy's FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions from its investments in non-coal businesses so far.</li>
<li>The balance sheet worsened significantly during the year.</li>
<li>That said, liquidity remained sound.</li>
</ul>


Indika Energy's FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions from its investments in non-coal businesses so far.
The balance sheet worsened significantly during the year.
That said, liquidity remained sound.


Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy</li>
<li>In the US, advance retail sales came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.6% e / -1.2% revised p) in February. Moreover, the January figure was revised downwards to negative 1.2% (from -0.9%), the lowest since July 2021. Seven of the retail report's 13 categories posted declines, notably motor vehicles, gasoline sales, as well as spending at restaurants and bars.</li>
<li>Retail sales (excluding auto and gas) rose 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / -0.8% p), while the retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP) was up 1.0% m-o-m (0.4% e / -1.0% revised p), supported by a rebound in e-commerce activity.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy
In the US, advance retail sales came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.6% e / -1.2% revised p) in February. Moreover, the January figure was revised downwards to negative 1.2% (from -0.9%), the lowest since July 2021. Seven of the retail report's 13 categories posted declines, notably motor vehicles, gasoline sales, as well as spending at restaurants and bars.
Retail sales (excluding auto and gas) rose 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / -0.8% p), while the retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP) was up 1.0% m-o-m (0.4% e / -1.0% revised p), supported by a rebound in e-commerce activity.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

<ul>
<li>In the US, the October nonfarm payrolls came in significantly below expectations at 12 k (100 k e / 223 k revised p). In addition, payrolls for the preceding two months were revised downwards by 112 k (+72 k p).</li>
<li>Payrolls in October were impacted by Hurricanes Milton and Helene, as well as a major strike at Boeing.</li>
<li>The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% (4.1% e), while the average hourly earnings stood at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.0% e / 3.9% revised p). </li>
</ul>


In the US, the October nonfarm payrolls came in significantly below expectations at 12 k (100 k e / 223 k revised p). In addition, payrolls for the preceding two months were revised downwards by 112 k (+72 k p).
Payrolls in October were impacted by Hurricanes Milton and Helene, as well as a major strike at Boeing.
The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% (4.1% e), while the average hourly earnings stood at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% revised p) and 4.0% y-o-y (4.0% e / 3.9% revised p). 


Indonesia

Indika Energy is an integrated Indonesian energy company providing solutions across energy resources, services, and infrastructure. Its energy resources business focuses on coal exploration, production, and processing, while its energy services segment offers engineering, procurement, construction, operations, and maintenance for various energy sectors. The company also handles mining transportation, logistics, and electricity generation through its energy infrastructure business. Indika Energy is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 2000.

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Indika Energy (INDY IJ)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Hongqiao, Indika Energy

Lucror Analytics

Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2024 Results

Indika Energy's FY 2024 results were weak as expected in our view, due to significant challenges amid declining coal prices, with no contributions...

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy

Lucror Analytics

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% (4.1% e), while the average hourly earnings stood at 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.3% revised p) and 4.0% y-o...

Lucror Analytics

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