Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

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Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Indo Tambangraya Megah / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> reported an inline Q1 FY24, with stabilizing price. Net cash at 875 mn USD is 50% of mkt cap. </li>
<li>If coal prices remain stable at 135 USD/ton, the company will be able to churn out 400 mn USD of profits (~24 mnt sales).  </li>
<li>With a minimum 65% dividend payout ratio, we derive a dividend yield of 15%. This number could be an upside risk as payout ratios have also been 100%.</li>
</ul>



Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported an inline Q1 FY24, with stabilizing price. Net cash at 875 mn USD is 50% of mkt cap. 
If coal prices remain stable at 135 USD/ton, the company will be able to churn out 400 mn USD of profits (~24 mnt sales).  
With a minimum 65% dividend payout ratio, we derive a dividend yield of 15%. This number could be an upside risk as payout ratios have also been 100%.


Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Pure Coal Play at 4.5x PE, 50% of the Market Cap in Cash

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> reported its Q4 2023/FY23 numbers with revenues down 46%/35% YoY and profits down 58%/69% YoY on declining coal prices (113 USD/ton Vs 192 USD/ton) .</li>
<li>We expect spot coal prices to remain range-bound between 130-150 USD/ton, resulting in company profits ranging between 350-500 mn USD (4x-6x PE range) with dividend yield ranging from 11%-15%.</li>
<li>The company also has a cash buffer of 850 million USD, roughly 45% of the current market capitalization. </li>
</ul>



Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported its Q4 2023/FY23 numbers with revenues down 46%/35% YoY and profits down 58%/69% YoY on declining coal prices (113 USD/ton Vs 192 USD/ton) .
We expect spot coal prices to remain range-bound between 130-150 USD/ton, resulting in company profits ranging between 350-500 mn USD (4x-6x PE range) with dividend yield ranging from 11%-15%.
The company also has a cash buffer of 850 million USD, roughly 45% of the current market capitalization. 


ITMG IJ: Q4 2023 Inline, Deep Value, 45% of the Mkt Cash and ~11% Dividend Yield on Spot

<ul>
<li>
Buyback as Capital Return Signal 113mn share buyback (10% of o/s) approved Nov 2025; US$710mn net cash. Management signaling undervaluation; ~IDR 2.43tn headroom remains.</li>
<li>
 Cheap at US$130/t Coal. At spot-equivalent NEX, ITMG trades 5.6x P/E and 1.7x EV/EBITDA. Every US$10/t adds ~US$63mn to net income.</li>
<li>
 ~65% Payout = 11.6% Dividend Yield  Sustained ~65% payout since FY22; US$773mn returned. FY26e implies ~11.6% yield at $130/t, which is one of Indonesia’s highest.</li>
</ul>



Buyback as Capital Return Signal 113mn share buyback (10% of o/s) approved Nov 2025; US$710mn net cash. Management signaling undervaluation; ~IDR 2.43tn headroom remains.

 Cheap at US$130/t Coal. At spot-equivalent NEX, ITMG trades 5.6x P/E and 1.7x EV/EBITDA. Every US$10/t adds ~US$63mn to net income.

 ~65% Payout = 11.6% Dividend Yield  Sustained ~65% payout since FY22; US$773mn returned. FY26e implies ~11.6% yield at $130/t, which is one of Indonesia’s highest.


Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ): Improving Quarterlies And Walk Back Of Government Intervention

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 301% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Four stocks remain, 10 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 301% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%


<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 317% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in ASEAN that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Five stocks remain, nine stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, the portfolio has generated a before-fee total return of 317% versus MSCI ASEAN’s 64%


Indonesia

Indo Tambangraya Megah engages in coal mining and energy activities, producing thermal coal for power plants. The company is also involved in coal trading, fuel trading, energy marketing, electricity generation, mining contractor services, and solar rooftop installations. It was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in South Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)