Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.</li>
<li>Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended on 30 June. The changes should be announced later in two weeks, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
We highlight 2 potential inclusions and 2 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance, though there is a possibility that there are no constituent changes.
Both potential inclusions will have over 2x ADV to trade from passive trackers and the flow is significant for one stock.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. </li>
<li>Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. </li>
</ul>


The precondition for the PAG privatisation offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) is satisfied. The composite document will be despatched by 11 July. 
Despite being a 39.9% discount to the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
The scheme vote remains low-risk due to the irrevocables, the lack of protest votes at the recent AGM, and the signalling from PAG’s decision not to introduce a scrip offer. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

<ul>
<li>PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-fengxiang-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29164:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK)</a> will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.</li>
<li>The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. </li>
<li>The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. </li>
</ul>


PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.
The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. 
The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. 


Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a> booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. </li>
<li>The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. </li>
<li>Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.</li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart as a supplier of essential goods. 
The company cut promotional spending in 1Q2025 by half, which improved profitability by 30% QoQ, but it still booked SSSG of 8.8% YoY, outperforming other consumer staples players. 
Alfamart continued to open new stores in 1Q2025, targetting 1,000 new outlets this year. This should help drive growth in 2025, along with SSSG. Valuations remain attractive versus growth prospects.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Outperforming with Essentials

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.</li>
<li>US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.</li>
</ul>


US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies.
The S&amp;P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while the Nasdaq gained 1.5%.
US Treasuries steepened, with the 2Y yield shrinking by 5 bps but the 30Y gaining 3 bps as investors slightly curbed their bets on US interest-rate cuts this year given factory activity data, while keeping the inflation expectation further out.


Indonesia

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia is one of Indonesia's largest and most integrated agri-food companies. Its core business activities include animal feed manufacturing, poultry breeding and commercial farming, aquaculture, beef cattle farming, and processing of various value-added food products such as poultry, fish, shrimp, and beef. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 2 sets of changes for the LQ45 in July. The forecast adds and deletes have traded in a range over the last few months. Historically,...

Brian Freitas

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The composite document is out. The IFA opines that PAG’s offer (HK$2.00 per H share) is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 24 July. At the last...

Arun George

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Outperforming with Essentials

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart...

Angus Mackintosh

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jul 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We highlight 2 sets of changes for the LQ45 in July. The forecast adds and deletes have traded in a range over the last few months. Historically,...

Brian Freitas

Fengxiang (9977 HK): Precondition Satisfied

The composite document is out. The IFA opines that PAG’s offer (HK$2.00 per H share) is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 24 July. At the last...

Arun George

Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG's confidence in the vote. For an end-of-Nov payment, the gross/annualised...

Arun George

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Outperforming with Essentials

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) booked a surprisingly strong set of 1Q2025 results, going against softer consumer sentiment, underlining Alfamart...

Angus Mackintosh

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US markets were in risk-on mode overnight, amid strong earnings from tech companies. The S&P 500 was up 0.6% for the eighth consecutive day, while...

Lucror Analytics