Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index October rebalance ended 30 September. The changes should be announced the last week of October, becoming effective after the close on 31 October.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 5 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
There are a few stocks that will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Barito Renewables Energy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> raised around US$200m in its Indonesian IPO, after pricing at the top end at IDR780/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 29th May 2024.</li>
<li>Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) raised around US$200m in its Indonesian IPO, after pricing at the top end at IDR780/share. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 29th May 2024.
Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Barito Renewables Lockup Expiry - US$8bn Lockup Expiry for Largest Indonesian Market Cap Stock

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a> booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results driven by +9.6% YoY growth in loans, despite being hampered by higher cost of funds amid tighter liquidity.</li>
<li>Loan growth was driven by corporate lending, with corporate SOE lending showing the strongest growth and consumer loans. Funding was driven by CASA growth which limited the squeeze on NIMs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia</a> booked strong growth in fee income and a reduction in provisions which helped to offset the margin squeeze. Valuations remain attractive on 1.2x FY2024E PBV.</li>
</ul>



Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results driven by +9.6% YoY growth in loans, despite being hampered by higher cost of funds amid tighter liquidity.
Loan growth was driven by corporate lending, with corporate SOE lending showing the strongest growth and consumer loans. Funding was driven by CASA growth which limited the squeeze on NIMs. 

Bank Negara Indonesia booked strong growth in fee income and a reduction in provisions which helped to offset the margin squeeze. Valuations remain attractive on 1.2x FY2024E PBV.


Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - The Bank Has Levers to Pull On

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-renewables" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ)</a> is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.</li>
<li>In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO.
Barito Renewables (BR) is Indonesia’s largest geothermal power producer, and the third-largest globally by installed capacity, as per the firm.
In our previous note, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will undertake a quick peer comparison and share our thoughts on valuation.


Barito Renewables IPO - Quick Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation - Good Assets but Bad Price

Indonesia

Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk is an Indonesian company primarily engaged in developing, constructing, operating, managing, and maintaining toll roads. The company also provides road construction and maintenance services, manages rest areas, and develops real estate properties. Jasa Marga was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Oct 2024): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in October. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

Barito Renewables Lockup Expiry - US$8bn Lockup Expiry for Largest Indonesian Market Cap Stock

Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) raised around US$200m in its Indonesian IPO, after pricing at the top end at IDR780/share. Its eight-month...

Ethan Aw

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - The Bank Has Levers to Pull On

Bank Negara Indonesia booked strong growth in fee income and a reduction in provisions which helped to offset the margin squeeze. Valuations remain...

Angus Mackintosh

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

Barito Renewables IPO - Quick Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation - Good Assets but Bad Price

Barito Renewables (2306028D IJ) is looking to raise around US$228m in its Indonesian IPO. In this note, we will undertake a quick peer comparison...

Ethan Aw

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