IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (1939092D IJ)</a>/Cimory is seeking to raise up to IDR3,761 billion ($265 million) at an IPO price range of IDR2,780-3,160 per share. Shares will list on 6 December.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-initiation-creamy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61066" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO Initiation: Creamy</a>, we noted Cimory is delivering strong growth in both its operating segments, rising margins and cash generation.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at the low end of the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Cisarua Mountain Dairy (1939092D IJ)/Cimory is seeking to raise up to IDR3,761 billion ($265 million) at an IPO price range of IDR2,780-3,160 per share. Shares will list on 6 December.
In Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO Initiation: Creamy, we noted Cimory is delivering strong growth in both its operating segments, rising margins and cash generation.
Our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at the low end of the IPO price range.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO: Valuation Insights

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, links <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-negatives-losing-market-share-margin-sustainability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-the-negatives-losing-market-share-margin-sustainability" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>,  we spoke about the various aspects of the deal. In we will do a peer comparison and talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>


PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.
It is a market leader in the overall yogurt sub-category as well as in the spoonable and drinking yogurt segments with a market share of 53.2%, 71.9% and 50.3%, respectively. 
In our previous notes, links here and here,  we spoke about the various aspects of the deal. In we will do a peer comparison and talk about valuations.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy  (Cimory) IPO - Giving It the Benefit of Margin Doubts

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>We continue to take a positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> as an increasingly interesting consumer health play for Indonesia, with its main brand a household name, with signs that its product diversification has gained significant traction both in beverages and supplements.</p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> recently released a very solid set of results for 3Q2021, with sales growing by +41% YoY , bringing 9M2021 sales growth to +23% YoY driven by improving consumer sentiment, with sustained growth from its leading products, and a higher contribution from new products.</p>
<p>It has also extended its distribution channel to 131,000 wholesalers and retailers for 9M2021 covering over 100,000 outlets and has further embraced digital channels, now selling through around 20 external marketplaces.</p>
<p>The company also saw improved margins in 3Q2021, with the gross margin improvement driven by stable raw material prices, operational efficiencies, and effective cost controls.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> has benefitted from the increasing health consciousness amongst Indonesian consumers and saw the sales of its core product Tolok Angin grow by +40% YoY  3Q2021. </p>
<p>The company has continued to diversify its product offering with its new products (NPD) seeing a growth rate of more than +140% QoQ in 3Q2021.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> continues to focus on improving its ESG ratings and recently saw the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> rating reduced to low-risk by Sustainalytics.</p>
<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> maintains an optimistic outlook for this year and 2022 as the economic recovery kicks in together with an increased focus on a healthy lifestyle.</section>


We continue to take a positive view on Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) as an increasingly interesting consumer health play for Indonesia, with its main brand a household name, with signs that its product diversification has gained significant traction both in beverages and supplements.

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) recently released a very solid set of results for 3Q2021, with sales growing by +41% YoY , bringing 9M2021 sales growth to +23% YoY driven by improving consumer sentiment, with sustained growth from its leading products, and a higher contribution from new products.
It has also extended its distribution channel to 131,000 wholesalers and retailers for 9M2021 covering over 100,000 outlets and has further embraced digital channels, now selling through around 20 external marketplaces.
The company also saw improved margins in 3Q2021, with the gross margin improvement driven by stable raw material prices, operational efficiencies, and effective cost controls.
Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) has benefitted from the increasing health consciousness amongst Indonesian consumers and saw the sales of its core product Tolok Angin grow by +40% YoY  3Q2021. 
The company has continued to diversify its product offering with its new products (NPD) seeing a growth rate of more than +140% QoQ in 3Q2021.
Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) continues to focus on improving its ESG ratings and recently saw the Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) rating reduced to low-risk by Sustainalytics.
Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) maintains an optimistic outlook for this year and 2022 as the economic recovery kicks in together with an increased focus on a healthy lifestyle.

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) - A Consumer Health Gem

<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><div class="content-highlight"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is South-East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company, with the majority of its sales in Indonesia. The company booked a respectable and resilient set of 1H2021 results with sales rising supported by organic volume growth. After the recent correction , we see this as a key process to rising levels of health-conscious in Indonesia.</p></div></section><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> saw a solid performance from its prescription pharmaceuticals division, with sales growth of +5.4% YoY in 1H2021.</p>
<p>The company's nutritionals division saw a slight drop of -0.5% in sales in 1H2021, mainly due to a change in products mix towards slightly more affordable products , which bodes well for future growth and its ESG credentials.</p>
<p>As a core part of the company's ESG initiative, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> is proactively extending access to healthcare through a number of different strategies.</p></section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"></section><section class="figure"><section class="figure"><p>The company expects continuing improvement in 2H2021, which will support sales growth of +7-10% for FY2021, with EPS growth of +7-10%, and a dividend payout ratio of 45-55%.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> currently trades in 22.9x FY21E PER and 20.9x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 26.3x forward PER, making it look attractive at current levels. </p></section></section>

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is South-East Asia's largest pharmaceutical company, with the majority of its sales in Indonesia. The company booked a respectable and resilient set of 1H2021 results with sales rising supported by organic volume growth. After the recent correction , we see this as a key process to rising levels of health-conscious in Indonesia.Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) saw a solid performance from its prescription pharmaceuticals division, with sales growth of +5.4% YoY in 1H2021.
The company's nutritionals division saw a slight drop of -0.5% in sales in 1H2021, mainly due to a change in products mix towards slightly more affordable products , which bodes well for future growth and its ESG credentials.
As a core part of the company's ESG initiative, Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) is proactively extending access to healthcare through a number of different strategies.The company expects continuing improvement in 2H2021, which will support sales growth of +7-10% for FY2021, with EPS growth of +7-10%, and a dividend payout ratio of 45-55%.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) currently trades in 22.9x FY21E PER and 20.9x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 26.3x forward PER, making it look attractive at current levels. 

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)- Back to the Business of Health

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> recently reported 1Q2021 results with sales up by +3.8% YoY, with the strongest growth coming from distribution and logistics, which grew +11.7% YoY, followed by consumer health which grew +2.7% YoY and would have been even stronger if not for the sift of the beverages business to the nutritional division.</p>
<p>Its prescription pharmaceuticals saw a slight -0.1% decline in sales for 1Q2021. 2Q2021 should see a boost for the unbranded generics through new tenders won under the BPJS coming through. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> nutritional division saw sales fall -1.0% YoY, boosted by beverages without which sales would have fallen further. The company has launched more affordable powdered milk products to cater for those consumers trading down this year. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> continues to expand into oncology and biologic products, which should help to support margins longer term.</p>
<section class="figure">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> has been building its digital capabilities through a number of different initiatives including KalCare, Klikdokter, MOS Health under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enseval-putera-megatrading-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12291:1" rel="noopener">Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ)</a>, and EMOS , while MosTrans is the company's digital transportation platform that focuses on delivering health products BtoB.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a> has a number of strategic initiatives for FY2021, which includes increasing its participation in unbranded generics, and a strengthening its participation in specialty products, as well as growing the pharma business through its digital platform. </p>
<p>We do not expect any near-term spin-off of the company's nutritional business but this may be considered longer term.  There is a possibility of a potential spin-off of its digital businesses but the timing is uncertain on this. </p>
<p>We continue to see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kalbe-farma-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6303:1" rel="noopener">Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)</a>, as a core holding to play increasing health consciousness in Indonesia, with a strong portfolio of core brands. </p>
</section>

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) recently reported 1Q2021 results with sales up by +3.8% YoY, with the strongest growth coming from distribution and logistics, which grew +11.7% YoY, followed by consumer health which grew +2.7% YoY and would have been even stronger if not for the sift of the beverages business to the nutritional division.
Its prescription pharmaceuticals saw a slight -0.1% decline in sales for 1Q2021. 2Q2021 should see a boost for the unbranded generics through new tenders won under the BPJS coming through. 
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) nutritional division saw sales fall -1.0% YoY, boosted by beverages without which sales would have fallen further. The company has launched more affordable powdered milk products to cater for those consumers trading down this year. 
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) continues to expand into oncology and biologic products, which should help to support margins longer term.

Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) has been building its digital capabilities through a number of different initiatives including KalCare, Klikdokter, MOS Health under Enseval Putera Megatrading (EPMT IJ), and EMOS , while MosTrans is the company's digital transportation platform that focuses on delivering health products BtoB.
Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) has a number of strategic initiatives for FY2021, which includes increasing its participation in unbranded generics, and a strengthening its participation in specialty products, as well as growing the pharma business through its digital platform. 
We do not expect any near-term spin-off of the company's nutritional business but this may be considered longer term.  There is a possibility of a potential spin-off of its digital businesses but the timing is uncertain on this. 
We continue to see Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), as a core holding to play increasing health consciousness in Indonesia, with a strong portfolio of core brands. 


Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ) - An Increasingly Healthy Blend

Indonesia

Kalbe Farma is an Indonesian pharmaceutical, healthcare, and nutrition company. It specializes in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of prescription drugs, over-the-counter medications, nutritional supplements, and consumer health items. The company was founded on September 10, 1966, and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

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Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ)

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO: Valuation Insights

Cimory is seeking to raise up to $265 m. Bookbuilding ends on 17 Nov and shares will list on 6 Dec. Our valuation analysis suggests that we would...

Arun George

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO - Giving It the Benefit of Margin Doubts

PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMD), a producer of dairy and consumer foods, aims to raise up to US$263m in its Indonesian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) - A Consumer Health Gem

Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) is an increasingly interesting consumer health play for Indonesia, with its main brand a household name, with signs that its...

Angus Mackintosh