Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a> performance during COVID was stellar and posted record high revenues and earnings without sacrificing margins. </li>
<li>FY 22's result was the first time in many years that both revenue and net income decelerated. </li>
<li>Current valuations at 19x PER and 7x PBR are not cheap, historically or relative to their peers. </li>
</ul>



Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ) performance during COVID was stellar and posted record high revenues and earnings without sacrificing margins. 
FY 22's result was the first time in many years that both revenue and net income decelerated. 
Current valuations at 19x PER and 7x PBR are not cheap, historically or relative to their peers. 


Sido Muncul (SIDO): Past Is Not Indicative of Future

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

With the ever-increasing COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, combined with the slow action to inoculate the citizens either due to the lack of vaccines supply or due to public distrust of the vaccine or COVID-19 itself, demand for medication is at an all-time high. Amid the ongoing “second wave” of COVID-19, some people have started taking it upon themselves to fend off the ever-looming threat of the coronavirus with unproven do-it-yourself (DIY) remedies and self-medication tips spreading rampantly on social media platforms, such as WhatsApp and Facebook, creating extra demand for a legitimate medicine sold in a licensed pharmacy.The YTD share price weakness and the recent knee jerk reaction from the delay of paid vaccination drive provides a better entry point for investors as the Indonesian government just released a rule to permit certain COVID-19 medications to be sold in licensed pharmacies in Indonesia and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a> is the only listed SOE pharmacy in Indonesia with more than 1000 outlets across the country.

With the ever-increasing COVID-19 cases in Indonesia, combined with the slow action to inoculate the citizens either due to the lack of vaccines supply or due to public distrust of the vaccine or COVID-19 itself, demand for medication is at an all-time high. Amid the ongoing “second wave” of COVID-19, some people have started taking it upon themselves to fend off the ever-looming threat of the coronavirus with unproven do-it-yourself (DIY) remedies and self-medication tips spreading rampantly on social media platforms, such as WhatsApp and Facebook, creating extra demand for a legitimate medicine sold in a licensed pharmacy.The YTD share price weakness and the recent knee jerk reaction from the delay of paid vaccination drive provides a better entry point for investors as the Indonesian government just released a rule to permit certain COVID-19 medications to be sold in licensed pharmacies in Indonesia and Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ) is the only listed SOE pharmacy in Indonesia with more than 1000 outlets across the country. 

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<div class="content-highlight">
Indonesia's leading diagnostics company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> just released a strong set of FY2020 numbers, confirming the company's ability to adapt and thrive in the face of the pandemic. It looks set to resume its expansion and trades on very attractive valuations.
</div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> saw its net profit increase by  +7.4% to IDR1,873.38bn, with revenues from each customer segment increasing and making a significant contribution.
Individual and referral customers from doctors made up 61.2% of revenues, whilst third-party referrals and corporate clients made up 38.8% of total revenues.
In 2020, the total number of tests reached 13.99m from 3.06m visits, with the demand for esoteric testing increasing by +191.5% YoY in 2020 to 1.6 million tests. Revenue from esoteric tests increased by +131.8% in 2020 to IDR700.3bn.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> continues to provide assistance to the government in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic by providing tests for COVID-19 using the rapid test method, EIA antibody serology test, and PCR COVID-19,  and performing more than 1m COVID-19 tests in Indonesia in 2020.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> continues to expand the capacity for PCR COVID-19 examinations to more than 2,000 tests/day by adding the Cobas 6800 automatic testing tool.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> continues to add to its digital capabilities to aims to provide convenience for customers, without them having to visit the Prodia Lab through teleconsulting and the Prodia App. 
The company plans to expand its clinical labs, hospital labs, POC outlets, and add one specialty clinic in 2021, after a pause in 2020. Apart from growing its network of outlets, the company plans to upgrade its existing clinical labs to provide a greater array of tests.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prodia-widyahusada" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23663:1" rel="noopener">Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ)</a> valuations are very attractive versus healthcare peers in Indonesia but also Indian diagnostic peers, which trade on significantly higher multiples.


Indonesia's leading diagnostics company, Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) just released a strong set of FY2020 numbers, confirming the company's ability to adapt and thrive in the face of the pandemic. It looks set to resume its expansion and trades on very attractive valuations.

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) saw its net profit increase by  +7.4% to IDR1,873.38bn, with revenues from each customer segment increasing and making a significant contribution.
Individual and referral customers from doctors made up 61.2% of revenues, whilst third-party referrals and corporate clients made up 38.8% of total revenues.
In 2020, the total number of tests reached 13.99m from 3.06m visits, with the demand for esoteric testing increasing by +191.5% YoY in 2020 to 1.6 million tests. Revenue from esoteric tests increased by +131.8% in 2020 to IDR700.3bn.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) continues to provide assistance to the government in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic by providing tests for COVID-19 using the rapid test method, EIA antibody serology test, and PCR COVID-19,  and performing more than 1m COVID-19 tests in Indonesia in 2020.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) continues to expand the capacity for PCR COVID-19 examinations to more than 2,000 tests/day by adding the Cobas 6800 automatic testing tool.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) continues to add to its digital capabilities to aims to provide convenience for customers, without them having to visit the Prodia Lab through teleconsulting and the Prodia App. 
The company plans to expand its clinical labs, hospital labs, POC outlets, and add one specialty clinic in 2021, after a pause in 2020. Apart from growing its network of outlets, the company plans to upgrade its existing clinical labs to provide a greater array of tests.
Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) valuations are very attractive versus healthcare peers in Indonesia but also Indian diagnostic peers, which trade on significantly higher multiples.

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Diagnosed as Resilient

Indonesia

PT Kimia Farma Tbk is a leading Indonesian pharmaceutical producer and distributor. The company manufactures, commercializes, and distributes a wide range of pharmaceutical products including finished drugs, herbal medicines, and cosmetics. It also provides integrated health services, encompassing manufacturing, research and development, marketing, distribution, retail, clinical laboratories, and clinics. Kimia Farma is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded in 1971 as PT Kimia Farma (Persero) through the nationalization of Dutch East Indies pharmaceutical firms.

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Kimia Farma (KAEF IJ)

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Past Is Not Indicative of Future

SIDO's record high performance during COVID is unlikely to be repeated, and FY 22 result was telling. The valuation level is also not cheap at 7x...

Henry Soediarko

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Kimia Farma (KAEF): Legitimate Pharmacy

ID government just released a rule to permit certain COVID-19 medications to be sold in pharmacies in Indonesia and Kimia Farma is the only listed...

Henry Soediarko

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Diagnosed as Resilient

Prodia remains one of our top healthcare picks in Indonesia, showing resilience during the pandemic, just releasing a strong set of numbers, and...

Angus Mackintosh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Past Is Not Indicative of Future

SIDO's record high performance during COVID is unlikely to be repeated, and FY 22 result was telling. The valuation level is also not cheap at 7x...

Henry Soediarko

IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 and LQ45 indices that will be implemented on 29 July. The largest passive inflows are on BBRI, ARTO and...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Kimia Farma (KAEF): Legitimate Pharmacy

ID government just released a rule to permit certain COVID-19 medications to be sold in pharmacies in Indonesia and Kimia Farma is the only listed...

Henry Soediarko

Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA IJ) - Diagnosed as Resilient

Prodia remains one of our top healthcare picks in Indonesia, showing resilience during the pandemic, just releasing a strong set of numbers, and...

Angus Mackintosh

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI