Quality-Value Investing

Marc Melendez, CFA

Emerging Market Small and Mid Cap Equities

Reperio Capital

Reperio Capital Research was founded in 2013 with the goal of better serving the investment community with in-depth, high quality, value oriented research.

Reperio means to discover in latin. Using value investing principles, we aim to discover a minimum of 12 investment opportunities per year within the Emerging Markets Small and Mid Cap universe.

We take a business owners perspective with a long term investment horizon. We conduct bottom up, fundamental research. We focus on downside risks and require a significant margin of safety in any investment to prevent the permanent loss of capital. All factors differentiating our research from the short term, trading focus of traditional research providers.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delfi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19714:1" rel="noopener">Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP)</a>  is the largest branded chocolate company in Indonesia with a 50% market share. The company has a strong competitive position driven by the company’s brands being the standard by which Indonesians compare other chocolates an extensive distribution network. Multinational chocolate companies have been in Indonesia for decades but are unable to gain a strong competitive position. Delfi and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)</a>, a local rival, have a combined market share of 80%.Despite the strength of the company’s competitive position, it trades at 5.2 times 2019 EBITDA. In 2018, Ferrero Rocher acquired Nestle’s US candy business for 20.7 times EBITDA. The US candy market is more mature and growing slower than the Indonesia Chocolate market and Nestle had a much weaker competitive position. Delfi is a very attractive asset to any acquirer. At 20 times 2019 EBITDA, Delfi is worth SGD2.62, 274% above the current share price of SGD0.70.  The Chuang brothers own a majority of Delfi’s shares and are all over 60. John Chuang, the CEO is 71. Joseph Chuang is 68 and William Chuang is 61. There is no family member inline to succeed. The highest position held by the next generation of the Chuang family is the Director of Information Technology. All make a potential for an acquisition over the next 10 years more likely.Assuming no acquisition and valuing the company on its current earnings with the current management team, Delfi’s base case valuation is closer to SGD1.25, 79% above the current share price. There is little downside. Assuming no growth and trough margins into perpetuity, the company’s fair value is SGD0.90, 28% above the current share price. Delfi is attractive at current prices.

Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP)  is the largest branded chocolate company in Indonesia with a 50% market share. The company has a strong competitive position driven by the company’s brands being the standard by which Indonesians compare other chocolates an extensive distribution network. Multinational chocolate companies have been in Indonesia for decades but are unable to gain a strong competitive position. Delfi and Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ), a local rival, have a combined market share of 80%.Despite the strength of the company’s competitive position, it trades at 5.2 times 2019 EBITDA. In 2018, Ferrero Rocher acquired Nestle’s US candy business for 20.7 times EBITDA. The US candy market is more mature and growing slower than the Indonesia Chocolate market and Nestle had a much weaker competitive position. Delfi is a very attractive asset to any acquirer. At 20 times 2019 EBITDA, Delfi is worth SGD2.62, 274% above the current share price of SGD0.70.  The Chuang brothers own a majority of Delfi’s shares and are all over 60. John Chuang, the CEO is 71. Joseph Chuang is 68 and William Chuang is 61. There is no family member inline to succeed. The highest position held by the next generation of the Chuang family is the Director of Information Technology. All make a potential for an acquisition over the next 10 years more likely.Assuming no acquisition and valuing the company on its current earnings with the current management team, Delfi’s base case valuation is closer to SGD1.25, 79% above the current share price. There is little downside. Assuming no growth and trough margins into perpetuity, the company’s fair value is SGD0.90, 28% above the current share price. Delfi is attractive at current prices.

Delfi: Indonesia's Dominant Chocolate Player at Available at 5.2 Times 2019 EBITDA

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co. / Equity Bottom-Up

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading Co. (ULTJ IJ)

Indonesia’s biggest milk company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> recently announced its 3Q2020 results, which saw a resilient performance from its dairy business and less so from packet tea. We caught up with management to garner a bit more colour on the simmering recovery that is taking place. 
In the dairy division white milk in larger packet sizes has been doing especially well, given the large portion of the population working and schooling from home. 
Smaller packet flavoured milks and packet tea under the Teh Sosroh brand continue to be under pressure given these are often picked up on the move but we expect a decent recovery as the economy opens up. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a continued rebound in earnings should be expected in 4Q2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. 
The company has opened a new Tetrapak line for larger packets to satisfy the growing demand for family packs. It is also investing in two large-sized dairy farms to ensure local supply.
Next year the company will invest in a new production and distribution centre closer to Jakarta, which will diversify its operations geographically. It has successfully secured IDR3tn in medium-term notes to finance its expansion. 
Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 15.5x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a core staple holding in Indonesia and one of our top long-term consumer picks.

Indonesia’s biggest milk company Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) recently announced its 3Q2020 results, which saw a resilient performance from its dairy business and less so from packet tea. We caught up with management to garner a bit more colour on the simmering recovery that is taking place. 
In the dairy division white milk in larger packet sizes has been doing especially well, given the large portion of the population working and schooling from home. 
Smaller packet flavoured milks and packet tea under the Teh Sosroh brand continue to be under pressure given these are often picked up on the move but we expect a decent recovery as the economy opens up. 
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a continued rebound in earnings should be expected in 4Q2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. 
The company has opened a new Tetrapak line for larger packets to satisfy the growing demand for family packs. It is also investing in two large-sized dairy farms to ensure local supply.
Next year the company will invest in a new production and distribution centre closer to Jakarta, which will diversify its operations geographically. It has successfully secured IDR3tn in medium-term notes to finance its expansion. 
Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 15.5x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) remains a core staple holding in Indonesia and one of our top long-term consumer picks. 

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - Simmering Recovery

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> has come back onto the investment radar as its growth strategy starts to take shape (with an obvious delay from COVID-19), with automotive, including trucks, heavy equipment, and autos, now making up more than 50% of sales. 
The company is the sole distributor for HINO Trucks, the leading large-size truck brand, with more than 50% market share in Indonesia and has now 100% of the Volvo distribution for the country. 
The company has also started to revive its Nissan auto business, increasing its stake in the distributor to 75%, giving <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> a higher vested interest in the brand's success. It has also expanded the number of Suzuki dealers and is now the sole distributor for KIA in Indonesia. 
Indombil is one of Indonesia's largest multi finance companies, with a greater exposure to commercial vehicles than its peers, which makes it relatively defensive. Indorent is Indonesia's No.3 car leasing player and has been relatively defensive through the pandemic period. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a>  has also significantly grown in its trucking &amp; logistics business under a JV with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seino-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13248:1" rel="noopener">Seino Holdings (9076 JP)</a>, which now has more than 5,484 trucks in its fleet, covering a whole host of FMCG clients outside <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ).</a>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> is also pushing ahead with its micro-petrol stations across the country with Exxon Mobil and Federal Oil Lubricants. It has 500 stations already open with a target of 700 micro-stations by year-end. These micro-stations are aimed at servicing motorcycle drivers. 
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indomobil-sukses-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11738:1" rel="noopener">Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)</a> is an interesting restructuring story backed by the Salim Group, which has seen the monetization of its significant investments into the trucking space delayed by COVID-19. Trading on 0.25x FY2020 PBV, with the prospect of a sharp earnings recovery in 2020, driven by both its automotive and trucking exposure. 
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Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) has come back onto the investment radar as its growth strategy starts to take shape (with an obvious delay from COVID-19), with automotive, including trucks, heavy equipment, and autos, now making up more than 50% of sales. 
The company is the sole distributor for HINO Trucks, the leading large-size truck brand, with more than 50% market share in Indonesia and has now 100% of the Volvo distribution for the country. 
The company has also started to revive its Nissan auto business, increasing its stake in the distributor to 75%, giving Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) a higher vested interest in the brand's success. It has also expanded the number of Suzuki dealers and is now the sole distributor for KIA in Indonesia. 
Indombil is one of Indonesia's largest multi finance companies, with a greater exposure to commercial vehicles than its peers, which makes it relatively defensive. Indorent is Indonesia's No.3 car leasing player and has been relatively defensive through the pandemic period. 
Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ)  has also significantly grown in its trucking &amp; logistics business under a JV with Seino Holdings (9076 JP), which now has more than 5,484 trucks in its fleet, covering a whole host of FMCG clients outside Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ).
Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) is also pushing ahead with its micro-petrol stations across the country with Exxon Mobil and Federal Oil Lubricants. It has 500 stations already open with a target of 700 micro-stations by year-end. These micro-stations are aimed at servicing motorcycle drivers. 

Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) is an interesting restructuring story backed by the Salim Group, which has seen the monetization of its significant investments into the trucking space delayed by COVID-19. Trading on 0.25x FY2020 PBV, with the prospect of a sharp earnings recovery in 2020, driven by both its automotive and trucking exposure. 


Indomobil Sukses Internasional (IMAS IJ) Emerging Transport Monolith?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020, with a decline in growth for UHT milk with UHT white milk seeing better performance than flavoured products. This can be attributed to people working and breakfasting from home with PSBB measures in place, which also drove higher demand for larger size packets.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> did not see the usual benefits this year from Lebaran with packaged tea hit particularly hard, given far fewer people travelling due to the Mudik ban (return to home village). Normally Teh Kotak is a popular drink to pick up for long journeys. 
July saw a slight pick-up in milk sales with some relaxation of PSBB measures from mid-June but it is too soon to read the performance for August. We would suggest a continuing rebound in sales of flavoured milk, as the population start to become more mobile again.
We also expect a gradual pick up in sales of Teh Kotak packet tea sales as employees return to working from the office again, albeit at a reduced intensity to start with.
Increased capacity for large size packets will also help to drive UHT white and flavoured milk growth, given greater demand due to WFH and schooling from home, especially for breakfasting.  
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a rebound in earnings should be expected in 2H2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. It is unlikely that it will adjust prices higher in September this year, which may slow growth prospects slightly. Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 16.4x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-ind-trading" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a core staple holding in Indonesia.

Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) saw a more pronounced impact from COVID-19 in 2Q2020, with a decline in growth for UHT milk with UHT white milk seeing better performance than flavoured products. This can be attributed to people working and breakfasting from home with PSBB measures in place, which also drove higher demand for larger size packets.
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) did not see the usual benefits this year from Lebaran with packaged tea hit particularly hard, given far fewer people travelling due to the Mudik ban (return to home village). Normally Teh Kotak is a popular drink to pick up for long journeys. 
July saw a slight pick-up in milk sales with some relaxation of PSBB measures from mid-June but it is too soon to read the performance for August. We would suggest a continuing rebound in sales of flavoured milk, as the population start to become more mobile again.
We also expect a gradual pick up in sales of Teh Kotak packet tea sales as employees return to working from the office again, albeit at a reduced intensity to start with.
Increased capacity for large size packets will also help to drive UHT white and flavoured milk growth, given greater demand due to WFH and schooling from home, especially for breakfasting.  
Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) is likely to see a marginally slower growth performance this year but a rebound in earnings should be expected in 2H2020, driven by a move to a "new normal" in Indonesia and a gradual opening up of the economy. It is unlikely that it will adjust prices higher in September this year, which may slow growth prospects slightly. Valuations remain attractive with the company trading on 16.4x FY21E PER versus its peer group average of 26x forward PER. Ultrajaya Milk Ind &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) remains a core staple holding in Indonesia. 

Ultrajaya Milk Ind & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - A Wholesome Performance

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kino-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1083:1" rel="noopener">Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ)</a> remains an often overlooked Indonesian consumer play with an interesting stable of strong brands, with a leading market share in their respective categories. A recent visit to KINO’s offices in Serpong in Jakarta last month and a follow-up call this week revealed a company adapting fast to the changing environment.
A key strategy adopted by the company has been a massive increase in sales of hand sanitiser. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kino-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1083:1" rel="noopener">Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ)</a> has introduced a new brand of hand sanitiser called "Instance" whilst previously only producing Esculin Kids Hand Sanitiser. Management suggests that it will go a long way to offsetting any softening of demand for other products.  
Its core beverages business is dominated by Cap Kaki Tiga, which is seen as a health drink, which may even see a boost to demand. Its Sasha brand of Halal toothpaste should not see too much of an impact and baby bottle cleaning products will also continue to sell well.  Its Ellips hair vitamin may see some impact from slow down but women will continue to look after their hair despite COVID-19. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kino-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1083:1" rel="noopener">Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ)</a> is trading at close to record lows since its listing both in terms of its forward PER and PBV. This seems overdone given that there is a defensive side to its business, which should mean earnings are relatively resilient and the move to produce significant amounts of hand sanitiser will help to offset the downturn elsewhere. It also looks attractive relative to peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-t" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sd-mncl-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ),</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ).</a>

Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ) remains an often overlooked Indonesian consumer play with an interesting stable of strong brands, with a leading market share in their respective categories. A recent visit to KINO’s offices in Serpong in Jakarta last month and a follow-up call this week revealed a company adapting fast to the changing environment.
A key strategy adopted by the company has been a massive increase in sales of hand sanitiser. Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ) has introduced a new brand of hand sanitiser called "Instance" whilst previously only producing Esculin Kids Hand Sanitiser. Management suggests that it will go a long way to offsetting any softening of demand for other products.  
Its core beverages business is dominated by Cap Kaki Tiga, which is seen as a health drink, which may even see a boost to demand. Its Sasha brand of Halal toothpaste should not see too much of an impact and baby bottle cleaning products will also continue to sell well.  Its Ellips hair vitamin may see some impact from slow down but women will continue to look after their hair despite COVID-19. 
Kino Indonesia (KINO IJ) is trading at close to record lows since its listing both in terms of its forward PER and PBV. This seems overdone given that there is a defensive side to its business, which should mean earnings are relatively resilient and the move to produce significant amounts of hand sanitiser will help to offset the downturn elsewhere. It also looks attractive relative to peers such as Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ), Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), and Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ).

KINO Indonesia (KINO IJ) - Health Drinks, Hair Vitamins, Halal Toothpaste, and Hand Sanitiser

Indonesia

PT Mayora Indah Tbk is an Indonesian multinational food and beverage company that manufactures, markets, and distributes fast-moving consumer goods, including biscuits, candies, wafers, chocolates, coffee, and health foods. The company is known for brands such as Kopiko, Energen, Torabika, and Beng Beng. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, it was founded in 1977.

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Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)

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