Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The purge out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> for Barito Group of companies has happened, causing the share prices to drop even lower. </li>
<li>As a result, the large bank stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and others should receive a higher weightings in the index, causing more inflows to the counters. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> is not only more advanced in providing lowest cost of fundings but also most transparent compared to other banks as well as other companies. </li>
</ul>


The purge out of Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) for Barito Group of companies has happened, causing the share prices to drop even lower. 
As a result, the large bank stocks like Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and others should receive a higher weightings in the index, causing more inflows to the counters. 

Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) is not only more advanced in providing lowest cost of fundings but also most transparent compared to other banks as well as other companies. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Dian Swastatika Sentosa / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index, and 5 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>Following their inclusion on the High Shareholding Concentration list, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will be deleted from the LQ45 and IDX80 indices.</li>
<li>While the size of the passive AUM is small, a lot of active funds use the LQ45 Index as a benchmark and could sell BREN/DSSA before the global index trackers.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index, and 5 changes each for the LQ45 Index and IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
Following their inclusion on the High Shareholding Concentration list, Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will be deleted from the LQ45 and IDX80 indices.
While the size of the passive AUM is small, a lot of active funds use the LQ45 Index as a benchmark and could sell BREN/DSSA before the global index trackers.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables Energy / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Minimum free float has been set at 15% with a timeline for companies to get there. A list of stocks with High Shareholding Concentration has also been released.</li>
<li>There could be 6 deletions from a global index in May with few other stocks having free float reductions. Estimated passive selling in Indonesia is US$1.3bn.</li>
<li>The changes to the free float thresholds and the improved disclosure brings Indonesia in line with other markets in Asia and should allay global index providers concerns.</li>
</ul>


Minimum free float has been set at 15% with a timeline for companies to get there. A list of stocks with High Shareholding Concentration has also been released.
There could be 6 deletions from a global index in May with few other stocks having free float reductions. Estimated passive selling in Indonesia is US$1.3bn.
The changes to the free float thresholds and the improved disclosure brings Indonesia in line with other markets in Asia and should allay global index providers concerns.


Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Amman Mineral Internasional / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.</li>
<li>Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. </li>
<li>The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.</li>
</ul>


Following feedback from a global index provider, the IDX (and KSEI) have released the list of shareholders that own more than 1% of a listed company.
Going through the list, we find many strategic holders of stock above 1% and identify 7 companies that could see a float reduction and passive selling in May. 
The lower float could see one stock deleted from the index; two others are close. But the risk of Indonesia being downgraded to a frontier market is now behind us.


Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)</a>' recent rally could result in the stock being added to a global index in February. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-resources-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15734:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)</a> trades marginally cheaper than its largest peers but all these stocks trade at more than 40x trailing PE.</li>
<li>Positioning appears stretched following the recent rally and there could be downside over the near-term. Trimming positions into strength appears prudent.</li>
</ul>



Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ)' recent rally could result in the stock being added to a global index in February. 

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ) trades marginally cheaper than its largest peers but all these stocks trade at more than 40x trailing PE.
Positioning appears stretched following the recent rally and there could be downside over the near-term. Trimming positions into strength appears prudent.


Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Indonesia

PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi is a holding company engaged in mineral and energy mining, primarily focusing on coal and gold operations through its subsidiaries. It produces thermal and metallurgical coal products and explores for resources including gold, silver, copper, and silica sand. The company also offers mining contracting, engineering, procurement, and construction services, as well as offshore supply base and other infrastructure services. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 2008.

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Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN IJ)

Indonesia: MSCI Downgrade - Transparency

Purge from Jakarta Stock Exchange Index leads to drop in share prices for Barito Group, boosting weightings for Bank Central Asia and other large...

Henry Soediarko

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables and Dian Swastatika Sentosa are deletions from local indices this week. Passive tracking AUM is small but active managers use the...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Min free float raised to 15% and companies given time to get there. High Shareholding Concentration list is out. There could be 6 deletions in May...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

Stocks that are expected to be downweighted (or deleted) have underperformed the index and peers. Index providers could announce their future...

Brian Freitas

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Bumi Resources could be added to a global index in Feb. Positioning appears stretched and valuations are expensive. Trimming positions into...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Indonesia: MSCI Downgrade - Transparency

​Purge from Jakarta Stock Exchange Index leads to drop in share prices for Barito Group, boosting weightings for Bank Central Asia and other large...

Henry Soediarko

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices

Barito Renewables and Dian Swastatika Sentosa are deletions from local indices this week. Passive tracking AUM is small but active managers use the...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Updated Disclosures Could Lead to Multiple Deletions & Float Decreases in May

Min free float raised to 15% and companies given time to get there. High Shareholding Concentration list is out. There could be 6 deletions in May...

Brian Freitas

Indonesia: Holdings Larger than 1% Disclosed; Stocks Affected & Impact

Stocks that are expected to be downweighted (or deleted) have underperformed the index and peers. Index providers could announce their future...

Brian Freitas

Bumi Resources (BUMI IJ): Potential Global Index Inclusion in Feb

Bumi Resources could be added to a global index in Feb. Positioning appears stretched and valuations are expensive. Trimming positions into...

Brian Freitas

Purge from Jakarta Stock Exchange Index leads to drop in share prices for Barito Group, boosting weightings for Bank Central Asia and other large...

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BREN and DSSA Deleted from Local Indices