Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a> at the close on 28 April.</li>
<li>There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.</li>
</ul>


Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and sell Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ) at the close on 28 April.
There will be passive changes to other stocks too, though the impact will not be material on most of the stocks.

GoTo (GOTO IJ) could be added to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in May. With the oversubscription option nearly all used up, the stock should trade weak near-term.


IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> lists on the IDX tomorrow. The IDX has <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>'s free float at 66% which would mean IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 Fast Entry index inclusion. </li>
<li>If included in the indices at a free float of 66%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> will have a weight of 13.55% in the IDX30 Index and 12.12% in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will then need to buy 13.2% of the real float on the stock. Active funds will also buy the stock as it would appear in their benchmarks.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) lists on the IDX tomorrow. The IDX has GoTo (GOTO IJ)'s free float at 66% which would mean IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 Fast Entry index inclusion. 
If included in the indices at a free float of 66%, GoTo (GOTO IJ) will have a weight of 13.55% in the IDX30 Index and 12.12% in the LQ45 Index.
Passive trackers will then need to buy 13.2% of the real float on the stock. Active funds will also buy the stock as it would appear in their benchmarks.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Potential LQ45, IDX30, IDX80 Index Fast Entry & Impact

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harum-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1604:1" rel="noopener">Harum Energy (HRUM IJ)</a> as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.</li>
<li>Given the focus is on liquidity, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> as higher probability deletion candidates.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 31 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We see Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Harum Energy (HRUM IJ) as higher probability inclusions in the LQ45 Index.
Given the focus is on liquidity, we see Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ), Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) as higher probability deletion candidates.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Currently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ)</a> debt to equity is at 2.5x, a five-year high and its earnings multiple is also at the 5 years high at 35x. Some of the bullishness comes from the creation of the INA, the first sovereign wealth fund of Indonesia that will create another funding avenue for Jasa Marga. </p><p>The commencement of vaccination for public servants and elderlies has also sparked positivity although the result (more traffic) is yet to be seen. At the current level, Jasa Marga's profitability is 28% lower than the peers despite almost having a 100% higher D/E ratio. It is also trading at 64% PER premium and 10% PBR premium. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/999/original/image_59574917191615277295474.png?1615277295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192999"></figure><div class="content-remarks"><p>source: Capital IQ</p></div><p>At the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D/E ratio as well. </p>

Currently, Jasa Marga (Persero) (JSMR IJ) debt to equity is at 2.5x, a five-year high and its earnings multiple is also at the 5 years high at 35x. Some of the bullishness comes from the creation of the INA, the first sovereign wealth fund of Indonesia that will create another funding avenue for Jasa Marga. The commencement of vaccination for public servants and elderlies has also sparked positivity although the result (more traffic) is yet to be seen. At the current level, Jasa Marga's profitability is 28% lower than the peers despite almost having a 100% higher D/E ratio. It is also trading at 64% PER premium and 10% PBR premium. source: Capital IQAt the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D/E ratio as well. 

Jasa Marga (JSMR): High Debt and Fully Valued

<p>The first half of the year was a moment to forget for the management; more toll road to build and share price plummeted as a result of earnings compression. As mentioned in my previous note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1">Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Pt (JSMR IJ)</a> , the current government has pushed for more development of toll road that aims to improve connectivity in the country. </p><h2>What's happened in the 1H?</h2><ul>
<li>Added 96.5 km new toll road</li>
<li>Increased market share by 1.4% to 65% in toll road in operation</li>
<li>Lebaran holiday </li>
</ul><p>The amount of…</p>

The first half of the year was a moment to forget for the management; more toll road to build and share price plummeted as a result of earnings compression. As mentioned in my previous note on Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Pt (JSMR IJ) , the current government has pushed for more development of toll road that aims to improve connectivity in the country. What's happened in the 1H?
Added 96.5 km new toll road
Increased market share by 1.4% to 65% in toll road in operation
Lebaran holiday 
The amount of…

Jasamarga (JSMR): Increase Awareness + Launch of ABS = Higher Share Price?

Indonesia

PT PP is an Indonesian state-owned enterprise specializing in construction and investment. The company undertakes a diverse range of projects including buildings, civil infrastructure, EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction), specialty projects, and energy plants. PT PP is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was established on August 26, 1953.

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PT PP (PTPP IJ)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy BBCA and sell BBRI at the close on 28 April. There are changes to other stocks as...

Brian Freitas

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Potential LQ45, IDX30, IDX80 Index Fast Entry & Impact

GoTo lists tomorrow and could get Fast Entry to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices if the IDX uses a float of 66%. That would require passives to...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Jasa Marga (JSMR): High Debt and Fully Valued

At the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Float & Capping Changes

Float and capping changes will require passive trackers to buy BBCA and sell BBRI at the close on 28 April. There are changes to other stocks as...

Brian Freitas

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia IPO: Potential LQ45, IDX30, IDX80 Index Fast Entry & Impact

GoTo lists tomorrow and could get Fast Entry to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices if the IDX uses a float of 66%. That would require passives to...

Brian Freitas

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Feb 2022): Potential Changes Later This Month

Changes to the LQ45 Index will be announced soon & become effective after the close on 31 Jan. We see three potential changes. The adds outperform...

Brian Freitas

Jasa Marga (JSMR): High Debt and Fully Valued

At the current level, investors should wait before adding more Jasa Marga into the portfolio as it is trading at 5 years high in PER and also its D...

Henry Soediarko

Jasamarga (JSMR): Increase Awareness + Launch of ABS = Higher Share Price?

The first half of the year was a moment to forget for the management; more toll road to build and share price plummeted as a result of earnings...

Henry Soediarko