ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart)</a> booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. </li>
<li>Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. </li>
<li>Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. </li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Alfamart) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, a testament to its resilience during an election period, with the seasonal impact of Lebaran. 
Minimarkets continue to be the winning format in Indonesia and Alfamart continued to gain share during 1Q2024, neck and neck with Salim-backed Indomaret if you include Alfamidi, Lawson, and Dan+Dan. 
Alfamart will slow store openings to 1,300 stores this year after adding more than 1,800 outlets in 2023, with growth prospects remaining positive and profitability intact with a 25% ROE. 


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Solidifying Growth Prospects

Nippon Indosari Corpindo / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ)</a> saw a relatively slow finish to the year with a slight decline in sales but the key drag came from a higher return rate.</li>
<li>4Q2023 did not see the usual seasonal spike but 2024 has started well and the return rate has come down, which will boost profitability as new products gain traction. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">ROTI</a> has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control. Valuations are attractive with recovery ahead.</li>
</ul>



PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) saw a relatively slow finish to the year with a slight decline in sales but the key drag came from a higher return rate.
4Q2023 did not see the usual seasonal spike but 2024 has started well and the return rate has come down, which will boost profitability as new products gain traction. 

ROTI has launched several more affordable products to help drive its push into general trade whilst raw material prices remain under control. Valuations are attractive with recovery ahead.


PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - Headwinds Dissipating

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.</li>
<li>Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada</a> continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.</li>
</ul>



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) represents one of the most interesting plays on people and goods mobility and end-to-end logistics in Indonesia, being market leaders in auto leasing and auctions.
Revenues slowed in 9M2023 due to a slowdown in Anteraja because of slower e-commerce but other areas saw strong growth, especially its auction and used car business.

Adi Sarana Armada continues to build its renamed Cargoshare end-to-end logistics business with new customers and a move into cold chain logistics. Valuations are attractive relative to growth.


Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - Leading Player in People and Goods Mobility

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.</li>
<li>4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. </li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya has decided to pare back the velocity of the expansion of Lawson convenience stores as it consolidates its leading position and maximises efficiencies.
4Q2023 saw slower growth in November but December should be stronger, whilst its store expansion for 2023 reached 1,700 new stores, with plans for around 1,300 new stores in 2024.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains the best way to play the minimarket space in Indonesia. 4Q 2023 numbers should provide a positive catalyst given it is the seasonally high quarter. 


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Rationalising the Lawson Buildout

Indonesia

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is an Indonesian retail company engaged in the distribution of consumer products, operating minimarket networks and franchise services primarily under the Alfamart brand. It offers a wide range of food and non-food products, cosmetics, and provides digital services such as bill payments and e-vouchers. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)