ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> through its Alfamart and Alfamidi formats is one of the largest mini-market operators in Indonesia but is now expanding aggressively into the convenience store space through Lawson.</li>
<li>The company should have a strong finish to the year with an additional 1,200-1,300 new stores being added over the period plus margins improving as Alfamart adds new services.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> is a core proxy to the winning mini-market format in Indonesia plus it is looking to replicate its success in the Philippines in Collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sm-investments-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20015:1" rel="noopener">SM Investments</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya through its Alfamart and Alfamidi formats is one of the largest mini-market operators in Indonesia but is now expanding aggressively into the convenience store space through Lawson.
The company should have a strong finish to the year with an additional 1,200-1,300 new stores being added over the period plus margins improving as Alfamart adds new services.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is a core proxy to the winning mini-market format in Indonesia plus it is looking to replicate its success in the Philippines in Collaboration with SM Investments.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Lawson Taking Up the Reins of Convenience

Nippon Indosari Corpindo / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-indosari-corpindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1181:1" rel="noopener">PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ)</a> released a strong set of 3Q2022 results against all odds given the increased pressure from higher raw material prices and specifically wheat. </li>
<li>Quarterly sales hit record levels with modern trade driving growth and the company improved margins despite surging raw material costs and saved on operational costs through reduced ad spend.</li>
<li>Wheat prices are now -34% from peak levels which should be positive for ROTI's margins and it continues to expand distribution and new products, driving growth. Valuations are attractive.</li>
</ul>



PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) released a strong set of 3Q2022 results against all odds given the increased pressure from higher raw material prices and specifically wheat. 
Quarterly sales hit record levels with modern trade driving growth and the company improved margins despite surging raw material costs and saved on operational costs through reduced ad spend.
Wheat prices are now -34% from peak levels which should be positive for ROTI's margins and it continues to expand distribution and new products, driving growth. Valuations are attractive.


PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ) - The Nation's Baker

<ul>
<li>A recent conversation with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)</a> which operates Alfamart and AlfaMidi mini-markets in Indonesia further cemented a positive view on the outlook for the company.</li>
<li>The company should easily surpass its target for 1,000 new stores this year, with increasing basket sizes and fee-based income and some new features such as BeanStop potentially improving returns. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya</a> remains a core retail holding with an increasing investor following after MSCI inclusion. Valuations remain attractive versus history and ROE at 25% is higher than pre-COVID levels.</li>
</ul>


A recent conversation with Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) which operates Alfamart and AlfaMidi mini-markets in Indonesia further cemented a positive view on the outlook for the company.
The company should easily surpass its target for 1,000 new stores this year, with increasing basket sizes and fee-based income and some new features such as BeanStop potentially improving returns. 

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya remains a core retail holding with an increasing investor following after MSCI inclusion. Valuations remain attractive versus history and ROE at 25% is higher than pre-COVID levels.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Gaining Momentum and Scale

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> 1H2022 results were impressive, with sales up +107% YoY and profit by +74% YoY driven by strong demand for both petroleum products and chemicals.</li>
<li>Land sales for its JIIPE industrial estate were slow at 3.5 hectares in 1H2022 but expect FY2022 sales to hit over 40 hectares, with a 37-hectare plot due in 3Q2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/akr-corporindo-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13338:1" rel="noopener">AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ)</a> gives high-quality exposure to Indonesia's economy across its major sectors and especially to the rapid growth in smelters which require chemicals in abundance.</li>
</ul>



AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) 1H2022 results were impressive, with sales up +107% YoY and profit by +74% YoY driven by strong demand for both petroleum products and chemicals.
Land sales for its JIIPE industrial estate were slow at 3.5 hectares in 1H2022 but expect FY2022 sales to hit over 40 hectares, with a 37-hectare plot due in 3Q2022.

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) gives high-quality exposure to Indonesia's economy across its major sectors and especially to the rapid growth in smelters which require chemicals in abundance.


AKR Results (AKRA IJ) - Fuelled by Smelters and Industry

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.</li>
<li>There is passive inflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO)</a> due to index inclusion, and on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a> due to capping changes.</li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes each for the IDX30 Index and LQ45 Index and 11 changes for the IDX80 Index at the upcoming rebalance to be implemented on 29 July.
There is passive inflow on Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO) due to index inclusion, and on Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA) due to capping changes.
With only 4 days to implementation, there will be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Big Inflows on ARTO, BBRI, BBCA; Outflows on GOTO, TLKM, BMRI

Indonesia

PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is an Indonesian retail company engaged in the distribution of consumer products, operating minimarket networks and franchise services primarily under the Alfamart brand. It offers a wide range of food and non-food products, cosmetics, and provides digital services such as bill payments and e-vouchers. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia.

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Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ)