External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%).</li><li>Both FeNi and MHP production segment recorded solid growth in FY23 with production volume jumped 300% yoy and 50% yoy, respectively.</li><li>We maintain our 2024-25F earnings forecasts and TP of Rp1,400 until further disclosure on its M&amp;A plan</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%).Both FeNi and MHP production segment recorded solid growth in FY23 with production volume jumped 300% yoy and 50% yoy, respectively.We maintain our 2024-25F earnings forecasts and TP of Rp1,400 until further disclosure on its M&amp;A planContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.</li><li>We expect TINS to be the best performer in 2Q24 as its ASP and volume improve, while NCKL has the least growth as it already had a solid 1Q24</li><li>We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.We expect TINS to be the best performer in 2Q24 as its ASP and volume improve, while NCKL has the least growth as it already had a solid 1Q24We reiterate our Overweight rating on the sector with TINS and NCKL as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

<ul><li>We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t</li><li>We see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.</li><li>We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCO</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/tWe see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCOContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.</li><li>In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.</li><li>We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The smooth elections bode well for stability, while the likelihood of a one-round Presidential election lowers market uncertainty.In our view, potential positives from a Prabowo govt are the prospect of higher economic growth, aided fiscal expansion and the key programs.We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

<ul><li>While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.</li><li>Given view of stabilizing NPI prices and falling cost, we expect earnings outperformance for producers with volume growth.</li><li>We maintain sector OW and prefer nickel names with high volume growth improvements such as NCKL and MBMA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.Given view of stabilizing NPI prices and falling cost, we expect earnings outperformance for producers with volume growth.We maintain sector OW and prefer nickel names with high volume growth improvements such as NCKL and MBMA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nickel: Expect NPI Price to Decouple and Stabilize

Indonesia

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk is a nickel resource and mining company. The Company offers laterite nickel ore, which consists of limonite and saprolite ore, as well as operates nickel smelters in Obi Island that process saprolite ore to produce ferronickel, which can be further processed into stainless steel. Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk serves customers in Indonesia.

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Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT (NCKL IJ)

Trimegah Bangun Persada - Expect Strong Production Growth

NCKL recorded FY23 net profit of Rp5.6tn, up 20.4% yoy which was broadly inline with ours (103.8%) and consensus (98.1%). Both FeNi and MHP...

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Strong Qoq Earnings Growth on Higher ASP, Expect 1H24 to Be Mixed

We estimate the sector’s 2Q earnings to proliferate on the back of a stronger ASP and volume, yet still leading to a slightly below 1H.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t

BRI Danareksa Research

Possible Positive ST Sentiment from the Likelihood of a One-Round Presidential Election

We maintain our FY24-end JCI target of 7,830 and see themes to play ST sentiment on big caps, select metals and cons. discretionary proxies.

BRI Danareksa Research

Nickel: Expect NPI Price to Decouple and Stabilize

While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.

BRI Danareksa Research

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