External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t</li><li>We see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.</li><li>We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCO</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/tWe see NPI demand remaining robust as global SS demand is expected to grow by 5%, implying 9.5% higher nickel demand in FY24F.We resume coverage with an OW rating as we expect market balances to stabilize; our pecking order: NCKL&gt; MDKA&gt; MBMA&gt; ANTM&gt; INCOContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.</li><li>Given view of stabilizing NPI prices and falling cost, we expect earnings outperformance for producers with volume growth.</li><li>We maintain sector OW and prefer nickel names with high volume growth improvements such as NCKL and MBMA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.Given view of stabilizing NPI prices and falling cost, we expect earnings outperformance for producers with volume growth.We maintain sector OW and prefer nickel names with high volume growth improvements such as NCKL and MBMA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nickel: Expect NPI Price to Decouple and Stabilize

<ul><li>Amid our expectation of stabilizing price and margin in 2H23, we see the sectors’ performance in 2H23 to be driven by volumes and thus, prefer producers with volume growth improvements namely MBMA, NCKL.</li><li>Expect nickel prices and producers’ margin to stabilize in 2H23.</li><li>Using China NPI price as a proxy, we noted that price have bottomed in USD13,182/ton in July 2023, following weakness since 2Q23 due to oversupply from Indonesia. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Amid our expectation of stabilizing price and margin in 2H23, we see the sectors’ performance in 2H23 to be driven by volumes and thus, prefer producers with volume growth improvements namely MBMA, NCKL.Expect nickel prices and producers’ margin to stabilize in 2H23.Using China NPI price as a proxy, we noted that price have bottomed in USD13,182/ton in July 2023, following weakness since 2Q23 due to oversupply from Indonesia. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining - Expect nickel price and margins to stabilize, but volume will be key drivers in 2H23

<ul><li>Indonesia's GDP in 2Q23 exceeded expectations with strong growth of 5.17% y-y, with Household Consumption ticking strongly upward by 5.23% mainly underpinned by a combination of the festive season, long holidays and the disbursement of religious holiday allowances (THR), which contributed to increased purchasing power.</li><li>We revise up our Q3 &amp; FY GDP growth forecasts.</li><li>The anticipated fiscal expansion and infusion of election funds are poised to bolster consumption within the broader economy.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia's GDP in 2Q23 exceeded expectations with strong growth of 5.17% y-y, with Household Consumption ticking strongly upward by 5.23% mainly underpinned by a combination of the festive season, long holidays and the disbursement of religious holiday allowances (THR), which contributed to increased purchasing power.We revise up our Q3 &amp; FY GDP growth forecasts.The anticipated fiscal expansion and infusion of election funds are poised to bolster consumption within the broader economy.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The US Debt Ceiling Bill has passed the Senate, allowing the Treasury to raise funds for TGA and pay debt interest</li><li>The market expects around US$1tn in new T-bill issuances, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing yield volatility</li><li>Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due to a slowdown in loans growth and a decline in working capital credit</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The US Debt Ceiling Bill has passed the Senate, allowing the Treasury to raise funds for TGA and pay debt interestThe market expects around US$1tn in new T-bill issuances, potentially reducing liquidity and increasing yield volatilityDomestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due to a slowdown in loans growth and a decline in working capital creditContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

Indonesia

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk is Indonesia's largest integrated nickel producer, engaged in the exploration, mining, processing, and production of nickel in matte from lateritic ores. The company also operates hydroelectric power generating plants that supply electricity for its smelting and nickel ore processing facilities. It is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was founded on July 25, 1968.

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Vale Indonesia (INCO IJ)

Metal Mining: Better earnings prospect from possible price bottoming (OVERWEIGHT)

We believe the supply surplus may be buffered by demand from batteries and SS; our FY24-25F Ni price assumptions at US$18k/17.5k/t

BRI Danareksa Research

Nickel: Expect NPI Price to Decouple and Stabilize

While we expect LME nickel price to decline further in FY24F, we project NPI price will decouple and stabilize at US$14k/t.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining - Expect nickel price and margins to stabilize, but volume will be key drivers in 2H23

Using China NPI price as a proxy, we noted that price have bottomed in USD13,182/ton in July 2023, following weakness since 2Q23 due to oversupply...

BRI Danareksa Research

Strategy - Sustaining Growth

The anticipated fiscal expansion and infusion of election funds are poised to bolster consumption within the broader economy.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro and Flows Tracker - Liquidity Headwind

Domestically, weaker growth was signalled by the slowing of Money Supply (M2) growth to 5.5% y-o-y in April, the slowest in four years, partly due...

BRI Danareksa Research

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