ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a> booked a solid set of 9M2024 numbers but 3Q2024 saw some heightened competition from Telkomsel Lite, pressure from discounted and dual SIMs, as well as local wifi operators.</li>
<li>The company raised data prices in early September but peers did not follow suit. XL retained its subscribers but is seeing pressure on ARPUs as subscribers consume less data.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a> is now a major home broadband operator having taken over Link Net's subscribers and should continue to benefit from increasing convergence. Valuations are interesting but competitive pressures remain.</li>
</ul>



XL Axiata booked a solid set of 9M2024 numbers but 3Q2024 saw some heightened competition from Telkomsel Lite, pressure from discounted and dual SIMs, as well as local wifi operators.
The company raised data prices in early September but peers did not follow suit. XL retained its subscribers but is seeing pressure on ARPUs as subscribers consume less data.

XL Axiata is now a major home broadband operator having taken over Link Net's subscribers and should continue to benefit from increasing convergence. Valuations are interesting but competitive pressures remain.


XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Palpable Pressure in Mobile and Broadband

Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat (ISAT IJ)</a> remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. </li>
<li>The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA</a>, and building a data centre edge through BDx.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a> is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT's growth outlook. </li>
</ul>



Indosat (ISAT IJ) remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with the growing use of AI tools. 
The company also seeks to become an AI Native Telco whilst also pursuing a separate AI business through its tie-up with NVIDIA, and building a data centre edge through BDx.

Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ) is also optimistic about its home broadband business projecting 2m subscribers by 2028. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers, especially given ISAT's growth outlook. 


Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Streaming Ahead with AI

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a> shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.</li>
<li>The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a>) were approached.</li>
<li>The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. </li>
</ul>


On 21 March, Bloomberg reported that TPG and MBK had restarted a strategic review to reduce their HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) shareholdings. Previous privatisation rumours have fizzled out.
The options include going private, attracting new investors, or raising cash through some of HKBN’s assets. Infrastructure-focused funds and one Chinese telco (likely China Mobile (941 HK)) were approached.
The probability of an offer is low as TPG and MBK will need to accept a material discount on their cost per share and financing challenges due to high leverage. 


HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> continues to stand as the most direct way to play the data demand in Indonesia as well as being the most convergent of the listed telcos.</li>
<li>Although it saw some seasonal slowdown in 3Q, the solid growth trajectory remains intact for this year with the completion of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net</a> restructuring driving convergence growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> raised data prices again in November and will continue to ride the wave of price reparation over the coming quarters in a more rational pricing environment. </li>
</ul>



XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to stand as the most direct way to play the data demand in Indonesia as well as being the most convergent of the listed telcos.
Although it saw some seasonal slowdown in 3Q, the solid growth trajectory remains intact for this year with the completion of the Link Net restructuring driving convergence growth.

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) raised data prices again in November and will continue to ride the wave of price reparation over the coming quarters in a more rational pricing environment. 


XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Riding the Wave of Price Reparation and Convergence

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a> continues to impress with its growth in revenues and data, driven by its 4G focus and high-quality network, with improving margins at the same time.</li>
<li>The XL convergence story continues to build, with convergence penetration increasing but the real kicker wILL come once the restructuring with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-net-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1050:1" rel="noopener">Link Net</a> completes but benefits are already accruing. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata</a> remains the purest data player in Indonesia, with convergence set to be the next driver. Valuations are attractive on 4.4x FY2024E EV/EBITDA with strong growth ahead. </li>
</ul>



XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to impress with its growth in revenues and data, driven by its 4G focus and high-quality network, with improving margins at the same time.
The XL convergence story continues to build, with convergence penetration increasing but the real kicker wILL come once the restructuring with Link Net completes but benefits are already accruing. 

XL Axiata remains the purest data player in Indonesia, with convergence set to be the next driver. Valuations are attractive on 4.4x FY2024E EV/EBITDA with strong growth ahead. 


XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Linked Up for Future Growth

Indonesia

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk is an Indonesian mobile telecommunications services operator. The company provides a comprehensive suite of telecommunications services, including mobile communication, 4G LTE and 5G connectivity, fixed broadband via fiber optic, internet telephony, cloud and data center solutions, and Internet of Things (IoT) services. It operates under the core consumer brands XL, Axis, and Smartfren. Headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, the company was founded in 1989 and officially established as XLSMART in April 2025 following a merger.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera (EXCL IJ)

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Palpable Pressure in Mobile and Broadband

XL Axiata booked a solid set of 9M2024 numbers but 3Q2024 saw some heightened competition from Telkomsel Lite, pressure from discounted and dual...

Angus Mackintosh

Indosat (ISAT IJ) - Streaming Ahead with AI

Indosat remains optimistic about the outlook for its core mobile business as it expands into rural areas and simultaneously increases ARPUs, with...

Angus Mackintosh

HKBN (1310 HK): Déjà Vu as Privatisation Rumours Resurface

The probability of a takeover offer is low, which explains TPG/MBK's exploration of other options. An attractive dividend yield continues to...

Arun George

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Riding the Wave of Price Reparation and Convergence

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) continues to stand as the most direct way to play the data demand in Indonesia as well as being the most convergant of the...

Angus Mackintosh

XL Axiata (EXCL IJ) - Linked Up for Future Growth

XL Axiata remains the purest data player in Indonesia, with convergence set to the the next driver, boosted by LinkNet synergies. Valuations...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)