Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Given the possible disappointing 2Q23E earnings and challenging marketing margins, we revise down our NP estimates by 30% in 2023E and by 13-15% in 2024-25E.</li><li>We also trimmed the 12M FV to Bt11.50, based on the earnings yield under a required rate of return of 5.9%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is fully valued, while the long-term growth prospects are strong, and the tactical risk indicates very limited downside.</li></ul>

Given the possible disappointing 2Q23E earnings and challenging marketing margins, we revise down our NP estimates by 30% in 2023E and by 13-15% in 2024-25E.We also trimmed the 12M FV to Bt11.50, based on the earnings yield under a required rate of return of 5.9%.The valuation metrics suggest that the current valuation is fully valued, while the long-term growth prospects are strong, and the tactical risk indicates very limited downside.

PTG Energy - Likely Downbeat 2Q23E Earnings; Earnings Cut

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We maintain an Outperform rating (FV Bt15.44, based on a required rate of return of 5.7%). Our valuation metrics suggest that the current share price is fully valued.</li><li>The long-term earnings growth should gain positive momentum, with NP growth expected at a 24% CAGR in 2023-25E. The tactical risk is neutral.</li><li>PTG’s earnings performance is sensitive to the marketing margin, given that the oil GP contribution accounts for 77% in 2023E. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We maintain an Outperform rating (FV Bt15.44, based on a required rate of return of 5.7%). Our valuation metrics suggest that the current share price is fully valued.The long-term earnings growth should gain positive momentum, with NP growth expected at a 24% CAGR in 2023-25E. The tactical risk is neutral.PTG’s earnings performance is sensitive to the marketing margin, given that the oil GP contribution accounts for 77% in 2023E. 

Ptg Energy -1Q23E Earnings Recovery, with Better Momentum in 2Q and 4Q

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Our Outperform rating is maintained, with a FV of Bt15.4, based on a required rate of return of 5.7%.</li><li>Our valuation matrix suggests that the current share price is fully valued.</li><li>The long- term earnings growth should gain positive momentum, with an expected 24% CAGR in 2023-25E, driven by the potential growth in sales volume and greater contributions from the non-oil businesses.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Our Outperform rating is maintained, with a FV of Bt15.4, based on a required rate of return of 5.7%.Our valuation matrix suggests that the current share price is fully valued.The long- term earnings growth should gain positive momentum, with an expected 24% CAGR in 2023-25E, driven by the potential growth in sales volume and greater contributions from the non-oil businesses.

Ptg Energy -Targeting Across -The-Board Growth in 2023E

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<li>Expect a slim net loss in 4Q22E, weighed down by a weak oil marketing margin</li>
<li>2023E business guidance suggests stronger momentum, driven by sales growth and network expansion</li>
<li>2023-24E earnings estimates expecting a 26% CAGR maintained, still 5-12% behind the consensus estimates</li>
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Expect a slim net loss in 4Q22E, weighed down by a weak oil marketing margin
2023E business guidance suggests stronger momentum, driven by sales growth and network expansion
2023-24E earnings estimates expecting a 26% CAGR maintained, still 5-12% behind the consensus estimates





Ptg Energy - 2023E Guidance Leaps in Line with Earnings Momentum

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt17.5.We like PTG for its steady earnings growth of 55%/28%in 2022E/2023E from margin recovery,and sales growth driven by retail store expansion.</li>
<li>3Q22 profit improved YoY while dropped QoQ PTG reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt177m (+181% YoY, -71% QoQ), falling out lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>The YoY earnings surge was underpinned by improved oil sales volume, which grew 16% YoY to 1.3bn liters on the back of overall relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions.</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt17.5.We like PTG for its steady earnings growth of 55%/28%in 2022E/2023E from margin recovery,and sales growth driven by retail store expansion.
3Q22 profit improved YoY while dropped QoQ PTG reported 3Q22 net profit of Bt177m (+181% YoY, -71% QoQ), falling out lower than our expectation.
The YoY earnings surge was underpinned by improved oil sales volume, which grew 16% YoY to 1.3bn liters on the back of overall relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions.


PTG : Seasonal Weak Sales Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

Thailand

PTG Energy Public Company Limited consists of eight groups of businesses as follows: 1) Oil (the Company's core and original business) and Retail Business, 2) LPG Business, 3) Renewable Energy and Investment Business, 4) Logistics Business, 5) System and Equipment Management Business , 6) Food and Beverage Business 7) Auto Care and Maintenance Business, and 8) Electronic Money Business (e-Money). In this regard, the Company is determined to operate the business with the aim of satisfying consumers' needs in a comprehensive manner.

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PTG Energy PCL (PTG TB)

PTG Energy - Likely Downbeat 2Q23E Earnings; Earnings Cut

Given the possible disappointing 2Q23E earnings and challenging marketing margins, we revise down our NP estimates by 30% in 2023E and by 13-15% in...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptg Energy -1Q23E Earnings Recovery, with Better Momentum in 2Q and 4Q

We maintain an Outperform rating (FV Bt15.44, based on a required rate of return of 5.7%). Our valuation metrics suggest that the current share...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptg Energy -Targeting Across -The-Board Growth in 2023E

Our Outperform rating is maintained, with a FV of Bt15.4, based on a required rate of return of 5.7%. Our valuation matrix suggests that the...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptg Energy - 2023E Guidance Leaps in Line with Earnings Momentum

Expect a slim net loss in 4Q22E, weighed down by a weak oil marketing margin. 2023E business guidance suggests stronger momentum, driven by sales...

Krungthai XSpring

PTG : Seasonal Weak Sales Dragged 3Q22 Earnings

We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt17.5. We like PTG for its steady earnings growth of 55%/28% in 2022E/2023E from margin recovery, and sales...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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