Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>2Q25E net profit is expected to have declined YoY but improved QoQ.</li><li>The oil retail business has continued to face challenging marketing margins and limited oil sales volume growth due to intense competition, while the non-oil business will act as a buffer and key profit driver over the next two years.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating (12M FV Bt8.75). </li></ul>

2Q25E net profit is expected to have declined YoY but improved QoQ.The oil retail business has continued to face challenging marketing margins and limited oil sales volume growth due to intense competition, while the non-oil business will act as a buffer and key profit driver over the next two years.We maintain our Neutral rating (12M FV Bt8.75). 

PTG Energy - 2Q25E Earnings (-YoY, + QoQ);

<ul><li>1Q25 earnings were weak (though better than expected), and the performance is projected to accelerate in the remaining quarters, supported by seasonal increases in oil sales volume in 2Q and 4Q, a recovery in marketing margins, and continued strong growth in the non-oil business.</li><li>We maintain our 2025- 27E earnings forecasts and expect 2Y core EPS to grow at a 10% CAGR, driven by the non-oil segment under its high-return investment expansion plan (with no share buyback plans).</li><li>The valuation metrics signal a positive outlook on the current valuation (the current market price is trading at a discount to the 12M FV of Bt8.75).</li></ul>

1Q25 earnings were weak (though better than expected), and the performance is projected to accelerate in the remaining quarters, supported by seasonal increases in oil sales volume in 2Q and 4Q, a recovery in marketing margins, and continued strong growth in the non-oil business.We maintain our 2025- 27E earnings forecasts and expect 2Y core EPS to grow at a 10% CAGR, driven by the non-oil segment under its high-return investment expansion plan (with no share buyback plans).The valuation metrics signal a positive outlook on the current valuation (the current market price is trading at a discount to the 12M FV of Bt8.75).

PTG Energy - Weak (But Upbeat) 1Q25 Earning...

<ul><li>2025 guidance: The company targets oil sales volume growth of 5-10% YoY and expects the non-oil businesses to drive growth, with non-oil sales revenue (excluding LPG) projected to grow by 40-50% YoY and the GP contribution from non- oil businesses increasing to 30-35%.</li><li>Strong growth expected in non-oil businesses: i) Punthai Coffee remains the flagship business, with 2024 sales revenue growth of 83% YoY and a GPM of 53%, fueled by an aggressive expansion plan to add 600 touchpoints YoY, reaching 1,947 touchpoints in 2025E, with a long-term goal of 5,000 touchpoints by 2028E.</li><li>The expansion will focus on high-potential major districts nationwide. ii) AUTOBACS (automotive service and maintenance centers) aims to expand its customer base, targeting sales revenue of Bt1.7bn in 2025E (2024 sales revenue was recorded at Bt1.0bn, up 76% YoY, with a GPM of 22%). </li></ul>

2025 guidance: The company targets oil sales volume growth of 5-10% YoY and expects the non-oil businesses to drive growth, with non-oil sales revenue (excluding LPG) projected to grow by 40-50% YoY and the GP contribution from non- oil businesses increasing to 30-35%.Strong growth expected in non-oil businesses: i) Punthai Coffee remains the flagship business, with 2024 sales revenue growth of 83% YoY and a GPM of 53%, fueled by an aggressive expansion plan to add 600 touchpoints YoY, reaching 1,947 touchpoints in 2025E, with a long-term goal of 5,000 touchpoints by 2028E.The expansion will focus on high-potential major districts nationwide. ii) AUTOBACS (automotive service and maintenance centers) aims to expand its customer base, targeting sales revenue of Bt1.7bn in 2025E (2024 sales revenue was recorded at Bt1.0bn, up 76% YoY, with a GPM of 22%). 

PTG ENERGY Plc. - Analyst Meeting (March 6, 2025)

<ul><li>4Q24 and 2024 earnings were in line with expectations.</li><li>We maintain our profit estimates for 2025-26E and expect 2Y core EPS to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by a larger oil sales volume base and strong momentum in the non-oil business.</li><li>The company targets to increase the non-oil GP contribution to 30- 35% in 2025E. Meanwhile, the marketing margin remains the key challenge.</li></ul>

4Q24 and 2024 earnings were in line with expectations.We maintain our profit estimates for 2025-26E and expect 2Y core EPS to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by a larger oil sales volume base and strong momentum in the non-oil business.The company targets to increase the non-oil GP contribution to 30- 35% in 2025E. Meanwhile, the marketing margin remains the key challenge.

PTG ENERGY - In-Line 4Q24 Earnings Growth QoQ

<ul><li>A larger oil sales volume base and strong growth momentum in the non-oil business (with the company targeting the non-oil GP contribution to reach 30% in 2026E) are expected to drive profit growth in 2025-26E.</li><li>However, marketing margins remain a key challenge that may limit profit growth.</li><li>We have revised down our 2025-26E net profit forecasts by 11% and 1%, respectively, reflecting a conservative marketing margin outlook, an upward SG&amp;A trend, and the aggressive expansion of Punthai Coffee. </li></ul>

A larger oil sales volume base and strong growth momentum in the non-oil business (with the company targeting the non-oil GP contribution to reach 30% in 2026E) are expected to drive profit growth in 2025-26E.However, marketing margins remain a key challenge that may limit profit growth.We have revised down our 2025-26E net profit forecasts by 11% and 1%, respectively, reflecting a conservative marketing margin outlook, an upward SG&amp;A trend, and the aggressive expansion of Punthai Coffee. 

Ptg Energy - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Grown QoQ

Thailand

PTG Energy Public Company Limited is a leading integrated energy and lifestyle platform company in Thailand, primarily engaged in the distribution of petroleum and LPG products through a nationwide network of PT service stations. The company also operates non-oil businesses including convenience stores (Max Mart), coffee shops (Punthai Coffee), auto care centers, and provides services such as e-Money and logistics. PTG Energy was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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PTG Energy (PTG TB)

PTG Energy - 2Q25E Earnings (-YoY, + QoQ);

The oil retail business has continued to face challenging marketing margins and limited oil sales volume growth due to intense competition

Krungthai XSpring

PTG Energy - Weak (But Upbeat) 1Q25 Earning...

1Q25 earnings were weak (though better than expected), and the performance is projected to accelerate in the remaining quarters, supported by...

Krungthai XSpring

PTG ENERGY Plc. - Analyst Meeting (March 6, 2025)

Strong growth expected in non-oil businesses: i) Punthai Coffee remains the flagship business, with 2024 sales revenue growth of 83% YoY and a GPM...

Krungthai XSpring

PTG ENERGY - In-Line 4Q24 Earnings Growth QoQ

We maintain our profit estimates for 2025-26E and expect 2Y core EPS to grow at a 15% CAGR, supported by a larger oil sales volume base and strong...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptg Energy - 4Q24E Earnings to Have Grown QoQ

A larger oil sales volume base and strong growth momentum in the non-oil business (with the company targeting the non-oil GP contribution to reach...

Krungthai XSpring

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