Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Exploration & Production / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Core profit and net profit momentum in 4Q24 and 2024 remained fragile, pressured by a decline in the margin per unit.</li><li>We maintain our view calling for 2Y core EPS growth (2025-26E) at a CAGR of -8%, underperforming the sector due to a downtrend in the margin per unit.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.64.</li></ul>

Core profit and net profit momentum in 4Q24 and 2024 remained fragile, pressured by a decline in the margin per unit.We maintain our view calling for 2Y core EPS growth (2025-26E) at a CAGR of -8%, underperforming the sector due to a downtrend in the margin per unit.We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.64.

4Q24 Earnings Beat Forecast by 5%; 2025-26E Earnings to Be Pressured by Margin per Unit

<ul><li>We expect 4Q24E and 2024E core profit and net profit to be unremarkable, pressured by a declining margin per unit.</li><li>We maintain our view that 2-year core EPS (2025-26E) will contract at an average of a -8% CAGR, underperforming the sector due to a downward trend in the margin per unit and slower growth in petroleum sales volume.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks stemming from the US-China trade war, as well as the declining trend for the company’s 2025-26E earnings.</li></ul>

We expect 4Q24E and 2024E core profit and net profit to be unremarkable, pressured by a declining margin per unit.We maintain our view that 2-year core EPS (2025-26E) will contract at an average of a -8% CAGR, underperforming the sector due to a downward trend in the margin per unit and slower growth in petroleum sales volume.We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks stemming from the US-China trade war, as well as the declining trend for the company’s 2025-26E earnings.

PTT Exploration and Production - Expect Unremarkable 4Q24E and 2024E Earnings

<ul><li>PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower petroleum sales volume growth target of a 3.4% CAGR (vs.  +4.9% CAGR during 2024-28E).</li><li>We have revised down the net profit estimates for 2024-25E by 2% and 4%, respectively, while maintaining the 2026E net profit forecast, reflecting the updated 5-year plan.</li><li>The 2-year core EPS estimate is now revised downward to a -6% CAGR, underperforming the sector, owing to a downward trend in unit margins.</li></ul>

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower petroleum sales volume growth target of a 3.4% CAGR (vs.  +4.9% CAGR during 2024-28E).We have revised down the net profit estimates for 2024-25E by 2% and 4%, respectively, while maintaining the 2026E net profit forecast, reflecting the updated 5-year plan.The 2-year core EPS estimate is now revised downward to a -6% CAGR, underperforming the sector, owing to a downward trend in unit margins.

Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in response to the US presidential election results, with an upward trend anticipated if Kamala Harris wins and a downward trend if Donald Trump does.</li><li>The resistance levels are set at 1,494 and 1,506 points, while support levels are at 1,473 and 1,466 points (10-day EMA).</li><li>For the tactical play strategy, we suggest trading buy on selective stocks.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in response to the US presidential election results, with an upward trend anticipated if Kamala Harris wins and a downward trend if Donald Trump does.The resistance levels are set at 1,494 and 1,506 points, while support levels are at 1,473 and 1,466 points (10-day EMA).For the tactical play strategy, we suggest trading buy on selective stocks.

US Election and Composite/Services PMIs in Japan and the EU

<ul><li>PTTEP’s stock price has declined by 17% YTD, largely pricing in the negative factors, including weak oil demand and a downtrend in oil prices (with the Dubai crude oil price down 20% from the peak in mid-April 2024), as well as the weak profit momentum expected in 2025-26E (-5% CAGR owing to a downtrend in unit margins).</li><li>This has kept the current valuation inexpensive (with 24% upside) amid very limited tactical downside risk.</li><li>We maintain an Outperform rating and our fair value at Bt155.50.</li></ul>

PTTEP’s stock price has declined by 17% YTD, largely pricing in the negative factors, including weak oil demand and a downtrend in oil prices (with the Dubai crude oil price down 20% from the peak in mid-April 2024), as well as the weak profit momentum expected in 2025-26E (-5% CAGR owing to a downtrend in unit margins).This has kept the current valuation inexpensive (with 24% upside) amid very limited tactical downside risk.We maintain an Outperform rating and our fair value at Bt155.50.

Ptt Exploration and Production - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

Thailand

PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, also known as PTTEP, is a national petroleum exploration and production company. It focuses on the exploration, development, and production of petroleum, including crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and liquified petroleum gas. The company also invests in renewable energy and related businesses, such as gas pipeline transportation and solar power. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded on June 20, 1985.

PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP-R TB)

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PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP-R TB)

4Q24 Earnings Beat Forecast by 5%; 2025-26E Earnings to Be Pressured by Margin per Unit

Core profit and net profit momentum in 4Q24 and 2024 remained fragile, pressured by a decline in the margin per unit. We maintain our view calling...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Exploration and Production - Expect Unremarkable 4Q24E and 2024E Earnings

We maintain our Neutral rating and the fair value (FV) of Bt139.89, reflecting the weak oil market amid the oversupply trend and demand risks...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Exploration and Production -5-Year Expenditures Plan and Petroleum Sales Target

PTTEP has announced a 3% increase in its expenditures plan (Capex and Opex) for 2025-29E compared to the previous plan, along with a lower...

Krungthai XSpring

US Election and Composite/Services PMIs in Japan and the EU

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move in response to the US presidential election results, with an upward trend anticipated if Kamala...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Exploration and Production - In-Line 3Q24 Earnings

PTTEP’s stock price has declined by 17% YTD, largely pricing in the negative factors, including weak oil demand and a downtrend in oil prices

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)