Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q25 net loss was in line. Slow petrochemical price and spread recovery posting downside risk to 2025E net loss is priced in. The stock is trading at 0.31x 2026E PBV (–1.5 S.D.).</li><li>Maintain Buy (2026E FV Bt31.25). Positive catalysts—business portfolio adjustment, ethane ramp-up, EBITDA uplift, and deleveraging—should drive 2026–27E profit turnaround and boost the balance sheet.</li><li>Global petrochemical reforms should aid price and spread recovery.</li></ul>

3Q25 net loss was in line. Slow petrochemical price and spread recovery posting downside risk to 2025E net loss is priced in. The stock is trading at 0.31x 2026E PBV (–1.5 S.D.).Maintain Buy (2026E FV Bt31.25). Positive catalysts—business portfolio adjustment, ethane ramp-up, EBITDA uplift, and deleveraging—should drive 2026–27E profit turnaround and boost the balance sheet.Global petrochemical reforms should aid price and spread recovery.

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL Plc. (PTTGC): 3Q25 Loss In Line; Restructuring To Lift 2026E Momentum

<ul><li>We expect a net loss in 3Q25E. 2025E remains a short-term drag but is already priced in (0.35x 2026E PBV; –1.25 S.D.).</li><li>Positive drivers include business portfolio restructuring, ethane ramp-up, EBITDA uplift, and deleveraging, which should lead to a profit turnaround and stronger balance sheet in 2026–27E.</li><li>The petrochemical reform should limit downside in prices and spreads before gradual recovery.</li></ul>

We expect a net loss in 3Q25E. 2025E remains a short-term drag but is already priced in (0.35x 2026E PBV; –1.25 S.D.).Positive drivers include business portfolio restructuring, ethane ramp-up, EBITDA uplift, and deleveraging, which should lead to a profit turnaround and stronger balance sheet in 2026–27E.The petrochemical reform should limit downside in prices and spreads before gradual recovery.

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL (PTTGC): Expect 3Q25E Net Loss...

<ul><li>We hold a positive view on the recent round of non-core asset monetization, expecting Bt9.2bn in cash proceeds for debt reduction and a one-time gain of about Bt2.3bn (upside risk of 50% in 2026E), offset by a negative earnings impact of around Bt110mn (downside risk of 2% in 2026E).</li><li>PTTGC is moving ahead with its non-core asset monetization plan: i) The company will sell its 35.43% stake in Thai Tank Terminal (TTT) for Bt4.4bn (pre-tax), along with an additional earn-out of about Bt604mn tied to an 8-year extension (2044–52) of the ethane storage service agreement with TTT after the main 15-year contract expires in 2044.</li><li>We expect the deleveraging plans (perpetual bond issuance, non-core asset monetization, and extended credit terms from PTT) to strengthen the company’s financial position.</li></ul>

We hold a positive view on the recent round of non-core asset monetization, expecting Bt9.2bn in cash proceeds for debt reduction and a one-time gain of about Bt2.3bn (upside risk of 50% in 2026E), offset by a negative earnings impact of around Bt110mn (downside risk of 2% in 2026E).PTTGC is moving ahead with its non-core asset monetization plan: i) The company will sell its 35.43% stake in Thai Tank Terminal (TTT) for Bt4.4bn (pre-tax), along with an additional earn-out of about Bt604mn tied to an 8-year extension (2044–52) of the ethane storage service agreement with TTT after the main 15-year contract expires in 2044.We expect the deleveraging plans (perpetual bond issuance, non-core asset monetization, and extended credit terms from PTT) to strengthen the company’s financial position.

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL Plc. (PTTGC): Asset Monetization-Asset Light Boosts Deleveraging Progress

<ul><li>PTTGC is an integrated producer of petrochemicals (gas-based) and petroleum (with a middle distillates yield of around 70%).</li><li>We re-initiate coverage with a “Buy” rating and a 2026E fair value of Bt33.0, implying 0.5x PBV (-0.5 S.D.).</li><li>PTTGC has a combined chemical and petrochemical capacity of 14mta and a combined crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 280kbd.</li></ul>

PTTGC is an integrated producer of petrochemicals (gas-based) and petroleum (with a middle distillates yield of around 70%).We re-initiate coverage with a “Buy” rating and a 2026E fair value of Bt33.0, implying 0.5x PBV (-0.5 S.D.).PTTGC has a combined chemical and petrochemical capacity of 14mta and a combined crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 280kbd.

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL Plc. (PTTGC): Business Restructuring For Survival...

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.</li></ul>

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical PCL is a fully integrated petrochemical and chemical company. The Company's products are derived from its main product, Olefins, namely ethylene and propylene.

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PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB)

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL Plc. (PTTGC): 3Q25 Loss In Line; Restructuring To Lift 2026E Momentum

3Q25 net loss was in line. Slow petrochemical price and spread recovery posting downside risk to 2025E net loss is priced in. The stock is trading...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL (PTTGC): Expect 3Q25E Net Loss...

Positive drivers include business portfolio restructuring, ethane ramp-up, EBITDA uplift, and deleveraging, which should lead to a profit...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL Plc. (PTTGC): Asset Monetization-Asset Light Boosts Deleveraging Progress

We expect the deleveraging plans (perpetual bond issuance, non-core asset monetization, and extended credit terms from PTT) to strengthen the...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL Plc. (PTTGC): Business Restructuring For Survival...

PTTGC has a combined chemical and petrochemical capacity of 14mta and a combined crude oil and condensate distillation capacity of 280kbd.

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest...

Krungthai XSpring

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