Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.</li><li>Overall, the index is expected to move in a downtrend in the range of 1,300-1,410 points.</li><li>Any rebound in the index is seen as a technical bounce back, likely due to the oversold condition as demonstrated by the oscillator indicator, with the short-term resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.Overall, the index is expected to move in a downtrend in the range of 1,300-1,410 points.Any rebound in the index is seen as a technical bounce back, likely due to the oversold condition as demonstrated by the oscillator indicator, with the short-term resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. The analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone. The macro challenges of an economic recession, prolonged Chinese lockdown</li>
<li>Neutral tone from analyst meeting Management guided that the sluggish petrochemical segment outlook was likely to persist into 2023. The cost concerns from the dynamic crude oil price situation</li>
<li>However, the polyolefins spread,viz.,HDPE and PP, which fell to a low base of US$390/ton and US$374/ton in 3Q22,are likely to pick up in 1H23 as demand recovers after China reopens.</li>
</ul>


Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. The analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone. The macro challenges of an economic recession, prolonged Chinese lockdown
Neutral tone from analyst meeting Management guided that the sluggish petrochemical segment outlook was likely to persist into 2023. The cost concerns from the dynamic crude oil price situation
However, the polyolefins spread,viz.,HDPE and PP, which fell to a low base of US$390/ton and US$374/ton in 3Q22,are likely to pick up in 1H23 as demand recovers after China reopens.


PTTGC : Weak Petrochemical Spread to Persist till 2024

<ul>
<li>Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. Given the macro challenges ahead viz, economic recession, prolonged China lockdown, and new olefins capacity addition in Asia</li>
<li>Disappointing 3Q22 results PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt13.4bn in 3Q22(compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22).The result came out lower than our expectation.</li>
<li>Stripping off the extra items (stock loss of Bt8.1bn, hedging Bt2.1bn etc.) the operating profit also dropped to Bt813m (-90%YoY, -94%QoQ) mainly dragged by frail refinery and petrochemical segment contribution.</li>
</ul>


Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. Given the macro challenges ahead viz, economic recession, prolonged China lockdown, and new olefins capacity addition in Asia
Disappointing 3Q22 results PTTGC reported a net loss of Bt13.4bn in 3Q22(compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22).The result came out lower than our expectation.
Stripping off the extra items (stock loss of Bt8.1bn, hedging Bt2.1bn etc.) the operating profit also dropped to Bt813m (-90%YoY, -94%QoQ) mainly dragged by frail refinery and petrochemical segment contribution.


PTTGC : Margin Pressure and Huge Stock Loss in 3Q22

<ul>
<li>We downgrade the recommendation to HOLD (from BUY) and revise down target price to Bt43.0 (19% down from previous Bt53.0), to reflect the earnings revision for 2022-23</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings to turn loss We estimate PTTGC to report a loss of Bt8.8bn in 3Q22, compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22. </li>
<li>Bleak 2023-2024 outlook The 2023-24 earnings should also remain in doldrums, as the softening crude oil price (projected to decline from US$100/bbl. in 2022 to US$85/bbl. in 2024)</li>
</ul>


We downgrade the recommendation to HOLD (from BUY) and revise down target price to Bt43.0 (19% down from previous Bt53.0), to reflect the earnings revision for 2022-23
3Q22 earnings to turn loss We estimate PTTGC to report a loss of Bt8.8bn in 3Q22, compared to a profit of Bt7.0bn in 3Q21 and Bt1.4bn in 2Q22. 
Bleak 2023-2024 outlook The 2023-24 earnings should also remain in doldrums, as the softening crude oil price (projected to decline from US$100/bbl. in 2022 to US$85/bbl. in 2024)


PTTGC : Weak Petrochemical Performance and One-Time Losses in 3Q22

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt53.0.The 2Q22 net profit fall 95% YoY and 67 QoQ to Bt1.4bn(a 7-quarter low)mainly dragged by huge hedging and FX loss</li>
<li>Hedging &amp; FX loss hit 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit fall to Bt1.4bn (-95% YoY, -67% QoQ), a 7-quarter low, mainly dragged by a huge hedging and FX loss. </li>
<li>Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.1bn, hedging loss of Bt12.7bn and FX gain of Bt4.4bn etc., the recurring profit stood at Bt13.7bn (+31% YoY, +120% QoQ), growing YoY and QoQ </li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt53.0.The 2Q22 net profit fall 95% YoY and 67 QoQ to Bt1.4bn(a 7-quarter low)mainly dragged by huge hedging and FX loss
Hedging &amp; FX loss hit 2Q22 profit The 2Q22 net profit fall to Bt1.4bn (-95% YoY, -67% QoQ), a 7-quarter low, mainly dragged by a huge hedging and FX loss. 
Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.1bn, hedging loss of Bt12.7bn and FX gain of Bt4.4bn etc., the recurring profit stood at Bt13.7bn (+31% YoY, +120% QoQ), growing YoY and QoQ 


PTTGC : 2Q22 Recurring Profit Grew from Strong Refinery Performance

Thailand

PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited operates as a petrochemical company. The Company manufactures and distributes upstream, intermediate, and downstream petrochemical products. PTT Global Chemical serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC-R TB)

KTX Zoom - APRIL 23, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, with the support at 1,340/1,330 points and the resistance at 1,356/1,365 points.

Krungthai XSpring

PTTGC : Weak Petrochemical Spread to Persist till 2024

Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. The analyst meeting came out in a neutral tone. The macro challenges of an economic...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTGC : Margin Pressure and Huge Stock Loss in 3Q22

Retain the HOLD rating with a target price of Bt43.0. Given the macro challenges ahead viz, economic recession, prolonged China lockdown, and new...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTGC : Weak Petrochemical Performance and One-Time Losses in 3Q22

We downgrade the recommendation to HOLD (from BUY) and revise down target price to Bt43.0 (19% down from previous Bt53.0), to reflect the earnings...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTTGC : 2Q22 Recurring Profit Grew from Strong Refinery Performance

We maintain the BUY call with a TP of Bt53.0. The 2Q22 net profit fall 95% YoY and 67 QoQ to Bt1.4bn (a 7-quarter low) mainly dragged by huge...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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