Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect robust 1Q25E profit (with improved margins across all business segments and lower SG&amp;A expenses, despite a QoQ decline in oil sales volume due to seasonal factors).</li><li>However, challenges are anticipated in the remaining quarters (e.g., GP/ liter may decline in 2Q due to potential stock losses; oil sales volume for the mobility business may be affected by seasonal factors in 3Q; and the global business is expected to have passed its peak sales volume in 1Q, while SG&amp;A expenses may accelerate in 2Q-4Q in tandem with increased business activities).</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E profit forecasts (calling for 2Y core EPS growth at a 10% CAGR).</li></ul>

We expect robust 1Q25E profit (with improved margins across all business segments and lower SG&amp;A expenses, despite a QoQ decline in oil sales volume due to seasonal factors).However, challenges are anticipated in the remaining quarters (e.g., GP/ liter may decline in 2Q due to potential stock losses; oil sales volume for the mobility business may be affected by seasonal factors in 3Q; and the global business is expected to have passed its peak sales volume in 1Q, while SG&amp;A expenses may accelerate in 2Q-4Q in tandem with increased business activities).We maintain our 2025-27E profit forecasts (calling for 2Y core EPS growth at a 10% CAGR).

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Expect Solid 1Q25E Earnings but Challenges in Remaining Quarters

<ul><li>The 4Q24 and 2024 earnings came out in line with expectations.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts and expect the firm to close the earnings gap by 2026E, with 2Y core EPS growing at a 13% CAGR (in line with the sector), driven by recovering oil sales volume and an improving EBITDA margin in the lifestyle business following the divestment of unprofitable operations.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a positive view on the current valuation, as the market price implies around 25% upside from the unchanged 12M FV of Bt14.24 and the 2Y core EPS growth is in line with the sector’s average.</li></ul>

The 4Q24 and 2024 earnings came out in line with expectations.We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts and expect the firm to close the earnings gap by 2026E, with 2Y core EPS growing at a 13% CAGR (in line with the sector), driven by recovering oil sales volume and an improving EBITDA margin in the lifestyle business following the divestment of unprofitable operations.The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a positive view on the current valuation, as the market price implies around 25% upside from the unchanged 12M FV of Bt14.24 and the 2Y core EPS growth is in line with the sector’s average.

Ptt Oil and Retail Business -In-Line 4Q24/2024 Earnings

<ul><li>4Q24E profit is expected to recover YoY and QoQ. We have revised down our 2025-26E net profit estimates by 17%, reflecting a more conservative GP/liter assumption.</li><li>However, 2- year core EPS is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR, in line with the sector’s average.</li><li>We maintain our Outperform rating due to limited tactical risks and a positive view on the current valuation, with the stock trading at a discount to the new FV of Bt14.04 (previously Bt16.6).</li></ul>

4Q24E profit is expected to recover YoY and QoQ. We have revised down our 2025-26E net profit estimates by 17%, reflecting a more conservative GP/liter assumption.However, 2- year core EPS is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR, in line with the sector’s average.We maintain our Outperform rating due to limited tactical risks and a positive view on the current valuation, with the stock trading at a discount to the new FV of Bt14.04 (previously Bt16.6).

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - 4Q24E Earnings Recovery

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.</li>
<li>The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.


Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Oct 24th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True, Gulf Energy Development, PTT, Ptt, Advanced Info Service, True, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Oct 24th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.4bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True, Gulf Energy Development, PTT, Ptt, Advanced Info Service, True, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True

Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited distributes petroleum products. The Company offers oil, gas, fuels, LPG, lubricants, and other related items. PTT Oil and Retail Business serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB)

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Expect Solid 1Q25E Earnings but Challenges in Remaining Quarters

We expect robust 1Q25E profit (with improved margins across all business segments and lower SG&A expenses, despite a QoQ decline in oil sales...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Oil and Retail Business -In-Line 4Q24/2024 Earnings

We maintain our 2025-26E earnings forecasts and expect the firm to close the earnings gap by 2026E, with 2Y core EPS growing at a 13% CAGR (in line...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - 4Q24E Earnings Recovery

4Q24E profit is expected to recover YoY and QoQ. We have revised down our 2025-26E net profit estimates by 17%, reflecting a more conservative GP...

Krungthai XSpring

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August. Positioning has increased but appears...

Brian Freitas

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Oct 24th): Intouch, Advanced Info Service, True

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in Intouch (INTUCH TB), Advanced Info Service...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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