Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The US election is approaching, US bond yields bounced up, and the baht depreciated.</li><li>If the support at 1,450 points cannot hold, a correction may occur, potentially ending the uptrend, with the next support at 1,431 points.</li><li>As we still expect it to succeed, we recommend buying at the support.</li></ul>

The US election is approaching, US bond yields bounced up, and the baht depreciated.If the support at 1,450 points cannot hold, a correction may occur, potentially ending the uptrend, with the next support at 1,431 points.As we still expect it to succeed, we recommend buying at the support.

<ul><li>The SET fluctuated within a 1% range last Friday.</li><li>The index rebounded from a low around 1,430 points, near the EMA25 line, and formed a hammer candlestick pattern, suggesting a potential reversal.</li><li>We estimate that the SET Index will move sideways as it is determined whether it will correct or continue the upward trend, projecting a range of 1,430 to 1,460 points.</li></ul>

The SET fluctuated within a 1% range last Friday.The index rebounded from a low around 1,430 points, near the EMA25 line, and formed a hammer candlestick pattern, suggesting a potential reversal.We estimate that the SET Index will move sideways as it is determined whether it will correct or continue the upward trend, projecting a range of 1,430 to 1,460 points.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We have revised down our Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2024-26E to USD80, USD75, and USD73/bbl, respectively.</li><li>The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to negatively impact PTTEP, as approximately 30% of its sales volume is exposed to crude oil prices, and the stock shows a high correlation of around 0.8 with crude oil prices.</li><li>For the refinery sector, we anticipate short-term negative effects, likely due to inventory losses in 3Q24E from the sharp decline in crude oil prices, against a neutral impact in the medium term given declining crude oil costs and crude premiums. </li></ul>

We have revised down our Dubai crude oil price assumptions for 2024-26E to USD80, USD75, and USD73/bbl, respectively.The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to negatively impact PTTEP, as approximately 30% of its sales volume is exposed to crude oil prices, and the stock shows a high correlation of around 0.8 with crude oil prices.For the refinery sector, we anticipate short-term negative effects, likely due to inventory losses in 3Q24E from the sharp decline in crude oil prices, against a neutral impact in the medium term given declining crude oil costs and crude premiums. 

Industry Update: Energy (Oil) - SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)</li><li>The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.</li><li>This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. </li></ul>

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. 

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The recent MPC meeting, which held the policy interest rate steady at 2.50%, increases the likelihood that it will maintain this rate at the next meeting on October 16, 2024.</li><li>The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting No. 4/2024 on August 21, 2024, voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50%.</li><li>The results of the MPC meeting aligned with market expectations and reflected the current economic situation, which has shown signs of solid growth in the second half of this year.</li></ul>

The recent MPC meeting, which held the policy interest rate steady at 2.50%, increases the likelihood that it will maintain this rate at the next meeting on October 16, 2024.The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting No. 4/2024 on August 21, 2024, voted 6 to 1 to maintain the policy interest rate at 2.50%.The results of the MPC meeting aligned with market expectations and reflected the current economic situation, which has shown signs of solid growth in the second half of this year.

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Policy Interest Rate at 2.50%

Thailand

PTT is a Thai state-owned integrated petroleum and natural gas company involved in exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil and gas, petrochemicals, and electricity generation. It operates extensive submarine gas pipelines and a network of LPG terminals. Headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, the company was founded in 1978.

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PTT (PTT TB)

Recommendation: Buy at the Support

The US election is approaching, US bond yields bounced up, and the baht depreciated. If the support at 1,450 points cannot hold, a correction may...

Krungthai XSpring

Technical Analysis

The SET fluctuated within a 1% range last Friday. The index rebounded from a low around 1,430 points, near the EMA25 line, and formed a hammer...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Energy (Oil) - SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The downward trend in oil prices due to global risks (e.g., increased supply and slower demand amid the unrest in the Middle East) is expected to...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: MPC Voted 6:1 to Maintain Policy Interest Rate at 2.50%

The recent MPC meeting, which held the policy interest rate steady at 2.50%, increases the likelihood that it will maintain this rate at the next...

Krungthai XSpring

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