Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

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Our S&amp;P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting this ST long ahead of the NFP Friday. A weak NFP number would boost the S&amp;P marginally into ideal short territory at 1,938 with risk to 1,950. Weaker sector links still look ugly with a focus on shorting small caps and financials. Our macro bear view stands - Short this rally for a slide to 1,720 and ultimately 1,620 by the summer.</div><div>Much like the BOJ induced…</div>


Our S&amp;P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting this ST long ahead of the NFP Friday. A weak NFP number would boost the S&amp;P marginally into ideal short territory at 1,938 with risk to 1,950. Weaker sector links still look ugly with a focus on shorting small caps and financials. Our macro bear view stands - Short this rally for a slide to 1,720 and ultimately 1,620 by the summer.Much like the BOJ induced…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%, which is not overly worrisome, but nonetheless it remains substantial.Indonesia tops the charts due to less well-known banks, and many that are subsidiaries from banks outside the country. On average NPL formation for Indonesia’s listed banks is 87% but when including only the major domestic banks the figure is less dramatic at 31%.  At the very least,…

Equity Bottom-Up

Alliance Bank Malaysia / Equity Bottom-Up

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in Malaysia. Or at least, not yet &ndash; not fully.There are few banks in Asia-Pacific that show a similar magnitude and steady decline in NPLs over the past nine years. From 2007 to 2015 (fiscal year ends in March), AFG&rsquo;s NPL ratio declined from 10.8% to 1.0%. This is a 91% decline over the periodThis has been a key driver in the bank&rsquo;s ability to see profit up nearly 400% over the period, as credit costs became less onerous. But what&rsquo;s happened with market capitalization?This requires a closer look.More below the fold....&nbsp;

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in Malaysia. Or at least, not yet &ndash; not fully.There are few banks in Asia-Pacific that show a similar magnitude and steady decline in NPLs over the past nine years. From 2007 to 2015 (fiscal year ends in March), AFG&rsquo;s NPL ratio declined from 10.8% to 1.0%. This is a 91% decline over the periodThis has been a key driver in the bank&rsquo;s ability to see profit up nearly 400% over the period, as credit costs became less onerous. But what&rsquo;s happened with market capitalization?This requires a closer look.More below the fold....&nbsp;

AFG MK: Winning NPL profile in Asia, not being rewarded…Yet

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

While the popular view remains that Iskandar's development is largely being driven by investments from Singapore households into the residential market, however, the actual dynamics are quite different.&nbsp;Over 60% of the cumulative investments have been from Malaysia while residential property makes up only 24% of the total investments.&nbsp;Thus, waning demand for residential assets is unlikely to derail the Iskandar express.

While the popular view remains that Iskandar's development is largely being driven by investments from Singapore households into the residential market, however, the actual dynamics are quite different.&nbsp;Over 60% of the cumulative investments have been from Malaysia while residential property makes up only 24% of the total investments.&nbsp;Thus, waning demand for residential assets is unlikely to derail the Iskandar express.

Can Iskandar Malaysia succeed without Singapore?

<ul><li>Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.</li><li>Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banks</li><li>Thai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.</li></ul>

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth&nbsp;as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the overall economy.Indonesian Bank loan growth has stepped down dramatically over the past few years. This reflects cyclically less corporate demand combined with increased caution from the banksThai Banks now report the lowest growth. With GDP growing at 0.5% this is reflective of demand.

South East Asian Loan Growth  - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Malaysia

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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Public Bank (PBK MK)

S&P Cap, DXY in Line, WTI and Copper

Our S&P buy limit at 1,875 was spot on per our dip/rally call, and we are seeing gains back to the touted 1,910-20 area where we are exiting...

Thomas Schroeder

A Gradual NPL Cycle in Asia

Only three countries in Asia Pacific are seeing NPLs in decline during over the past three to four quarters. The average rate of growth is 20%,...

Daniel Tabbush

AFG MK: Winning NPL profile in Asia, not being rewarded…Yet

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in...

Daniel Tabbush

Can Iskandar Malaysia succeed without Singapore?

While the popular view remains that Iskandar's development is largely being driven by investments from Singapore households into the residential...

PropertyGuru

South East Asian Loan Growth - Phillippine, Thai and Indonesian Banks Compared.

Philippine banks are now taking over others in SE Asia in terms of credit growth as they become more comfortable with their own financials and the...

Daniel Tabbush

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