Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Most are aware of the many reported incidents of fraud within India banking. A simple scan of our colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/941" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:941">Hemindra Hazari</a>'s work will reveal quite a bit. <a href="http://www.iiasadvisory.com" target="_blank">Institutional Investor Advisory Services</a> is a rich source of incidents of fraud in India banking, where they highlight 12,533 cases of fraud, totalling INR182 billion, during 2017. We wonder if India’s banks are structurally more likely to  fraud and operational risk than large peers globally and within Asia? We say this due to stark…

Most are aware of the many reported incidents of fraud within India banking. A simple scan of our colleague Hemindra Hazari's work will reveal quite a bit. Institutional Investor Advisory Services is a rich source of incidents of fraud in India banking, where they highlight 12,533 cases of fraud, totalling INR182 billion, during 2017. We wonder if India’s banks are structurally more likely to  fraud and operational risk than large peers globally and within Asia? We say this due to stark…

India Banks – Is Staffing Critical in Controlling Fraud?

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha, ANTYA Investments

ANTYA Investments

Actionable Insights, Assured Alpha

Investing That Empowers You

ANTYA Investments Inc., regulated by the Ontario Securities Commission, is registered to provide wealth management services in Canada. ANTYA manages institutional, and high net-worth client portfolios on a discretionary basis. Our investment philosophy embraces a Core-Satellite approach.  The core of the portfolio is chosen from a group of fifteen asset classes. A few stock specific asymmetrical investment opportunities comprise the satellite segment. ANTYA invests only in global, large capitalization, and investment grade companies.  

Indian banks are dealing with multiple issues, none of which are easily resolvable. However, the recent decline in GOI bond yields has given the banks a temporary reprieve, and in our view, most banks could surprise to the upside when Q4-F18 results are reported. The massive bond hoardes in available for sale portfolios, which impacted some of the banks negatively in Q3-F18, would be marked upwards, realising investment gains on the income statement. The longer term story is less sanguine.

Indian banks are dealing with multiple issues, none of which are easily resolvable. However, the recent decline in GOI bond yields has given the banks a temporary reprieve, and in our view, most banks could surprise to the upside when Q4-F18 results are reported. The massive bond hoardes in available for sale portfolios, which impacted some of the banks negatively in Q3-F18, would be marked upwards, realising investment gains on the income statement. The longer term story is less sanguine.

The Indian Conundrum - A Growing Economy & Stagnant Bank Credit

Associate Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Naman Mishra

Associate Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

Recovery in growth, strong inflationary pressures- Room for a rate hike!!A better than expected growth recovery in Oct-Dec’17 might have shaved off some concerns over growth for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The real GDP grew at a pace of 7.2% year on year (YoY), the fastest in the last five quarters. The bright spot was that the growth was led by a rebound in investment demand which grew by a multi-quarter high growth of 12% YoY.Investment propels GDP growth to a five-quarter high of…

Recovery in growth, strong inflationary pressures- Room for a rate hike!!A better than expected growth recovery in Oct-Dec’17 might have shaved off some concerns over growth for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The real GDP grew at a pace of 7.2% year on year (YoY), the fastest in the last five quarters. The bright spot was that the growth was led by a rebound in investment demand which grew by a multi-quarter high growth of 12% YoY.Investment propels GDP growth to a five-quarter high of…

India: RBI Should Act Sooner than Later to Curb Inflation!

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time of that announcement, there was euphoria over the renewed and positive outlook of these ailing, fledgling government banks. And still the figures did not add up then and they add up even less now. Besides hardly covering the non-performing loans (NPLs) and restructured loans of targeted banks, the recapitalization plan did not require a change in…

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time of that announcement, there was euphoria over the renewed and positive outlook of these ailing, fledgling government banks. And still the figures did not add up then and they add up even less now. Besides hardly covering the non-performing loans (NPLs) and restructured loans of targeted banks, the recapitalization plan did not require a change in…

India – Recap Euphoria, Going, Going, Gone

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

After the discovery of PNB (Punjab National Bank) loan fraud in mid-Feb, worth Rs114bn (now revised to Rs127bn), there is a spate of bad news regarding more loan frauds in the system and several PSU banks have disclosed scams now crossing Rs60bn in the two weeks after the PNB case. The figure is expected to climb as the government has asked banks to carry out a forensic audit of all NPLs above Rs500m. Banks have also been asked to do system checks and adopt best practices within a matter of 15…

After the discovery of PNB (Punjab National Bank) loan fraud in mid-Feb, worth Rs114bn (now revised to Rs127bn), there is a spate of bad news regarding more loan frauds in the system and several PSU banks have disclosed scams now crossing Rs60bn in the two weeks after the PNB case. The figure is expected to climb as the government has asked banks to carry out a forensic audit of all NPLs above Rs500m. Banks have also been asked to do system checks and adopt best practices within a matter of 15…

Why Banks May Prefer A Loan Fraud Over NPL? Race to Discover Loan Frauds Can Create Policy Paralysis

India

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

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Punjab National Bank (PNB IN)

India Banks – Is Staffing Critical in Controlling Fraud?

Most are aware of the many reported incidents of fraud within India banking. A simple scan of our colleague Hemindra Hazari's work will reveal...

Daniel Tabbush

The Indian Conundrum - A Growing Economy & Stagnant Bank Credit

Indian banks are dealing with multiple issues, none of which are easily resolvable. However, the recent decline in GOI bond yields has given the...

ANTYA Investments

India: RBI Should Act Sooner than Later to Curb Inflation!

Recovery in growth, strong inflationary pressures- Room for a rate hike!!A better than expected growth recovery in Oct-Dec’17 might have shaved off...

Naman Mishra

India – Recap Euphoria, Going, Going, Gone

It was always a stretch that the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) INR2.1 trillion could well recapitalise the main government-owned banks. At the time...

Daniel Tabbush

Why Banks May Prefer A Loan Fraud Over NPL? Race to Discover Loan Frauds Can Create Policy Paralysis

After the discovery of PNB (Punjab National Bank) loan fraud in mid-Feb, worth Rs114bn (now revised to Rs127bn), there is a spate of bad news...

Asia Advisors

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