Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


The SP 500 Index (you can guess) tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two regular changes in December 2025. There are also multiple live M&amp;A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.


[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks</li>
<li>The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Short-Term supports on SPX include 6480-6520, 6450, 6400-6410, 6340-6360, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059; buy pullbacks
The list of areas re-emerging as leadership has meaningfully expanded to include ARKK, ARKW, uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), and other themes including IPOs/A.I./nuclear/robotics/drones/autonomous driving/bitcoin


High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

Seagate Technology Holdings PL / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. </li>
<li>We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Shorter-Term, the SPX violated its 3.5-month uptrend yesterday, but managed to rally back to the breakdown level by yesterday's close. 
We would not yet call this a decisive breakdown, and we are on the lookout for a potential reclaim back above this uptrend at the 6425-3430 level. Or consolidation?


Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a> recently became eligible for addition to S&amp;P500 following the company's <a href="https://ir.doordash.com/news/news-details/2025/DoorDash-Releases-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2024-Financial-Results/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">positive earnings announcement</a> on 11 February 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doordash-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28881:1" rel="noopener">DoorDash (DASH US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase Global (COIN US)</a> are the main addition by transition candidates. APP is number one due to significant long-term mcap score.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/williams-sonoma-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11383:1" rel="noopener">Williams Sonoma (WSM US)</a> is the main addition by migration candidate and the expected addition by replacement if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capital-one-financial-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:255:1" rel="noopener">Capital One's</a> acquisition is completed prior to the March review.</li>
</ul>



DoorDash (DASH US) recently became eligible for addition to S&amp;P500 following the company's positive earnings announcement on 11 February 2025.

AppLovin (APP US), DoorDash (DASH US), and Coinbase Global (COIN US) are the main addition by transition candidates. APP is number one due to significant long-term mcap score.

Williams Sonoma (WSM US) is the main addition by migration candidate and the expected addition by replacement if Capital One's acquisition is completed prior to the March review.


Event-Driven

Erie Indemnity Company Cl A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dell-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32189:1" rel="noopener">Dell Technologies (DELL US)</a> is the main addition by transition candidate with a reduced probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erie-indemnity-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4804:1" rel="noopener">Erie Indemnity (ERIE US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the main addition by migration candidates with an increased probability due to weak transition candidates.</li>
<li>Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlisle-cos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7929:1" rel="noopener">Carlisle Cos (CSL US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dick-s-sporting-goods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1675:1" rel="noopener">Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US)</a> .</li>
</ul>



Dell Technologies (DELL US) is the main addition by transition candidate with a reduced probability due to no longer passing the S&amp;P 500 transition threshold.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the main addition by migration candidates with an increased probability due to weak transition candidates.
Addition by migration candidates have more inconsistent selection patterns. Other addition candidates include Texas Pacific Land (TPL US), Carlisle Cos (CSL US) and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS US) .


S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

United States

Pure Storage, Inc. provides enterprise storage solutions. The Company offers flash enterprise arrays for high performance workloads, including server consolidation, virtualization desktop, database, and cloud computing. Pure Storage serves customers throughout the United States.

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Pure Storage Inc (PSTG US)

[Quiddity Index] SP500/600 Dec25 Rebal: One Name (Always Bridesmaid Never the Bride) Stands Out

The S&P500 should have 2 ADDs + 2 DELs in Dec25 at this point. There are multiple possible intra-review M&A changes as well, which could reduce...

Travis Lundy

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership; Remain Overweight Growth; Bullish Outlook Intact on $SPX $QQQ $IWM. $ARKK $URA $HYDR $IONQ $OKLO $BBAI...

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Staples to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading As Prior Leaders Consolidate

Downgrading Staples $XLP to Underweight; New Leaders Still Leading While Prior Leaders Consolidate; $SMH Above $280, 10-yr Treasury yield below key...

Vermilion Research

S&P500: DoorDash Knocks

Announced additions: DASH, WSM , EXE, TKO. 2/3 of top addition picks materialized. EXE, TKO I believe were added by force due to a large number of...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P 500 September 2024 Forecasts: Dull for DELL. Brighter for ERIE, LII and TPL

ERIE, DELL and PLTR were the announced additions and the top migration and transition candidates. To improve convictions, transitions and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

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