Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qifu-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36657:1" rel="noopener">Qifu Technology (3660 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/q-technology-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:79:1" rel="noopener">Q Technology Group (1478 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31500:1" rel="noopener">JD Logistics (2618 HK)</a> all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-music-entertainment-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36601:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK)</a> disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services (6098 HK)</a> declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.
</li>
</ul>


Japan equity ETF flows have not recovered from the carry trade sell off.  Hong Kong Southbound Connect flows continue to be positive this month.

Qifu Technology (3660 HK) , Q Technology Group (1478 HK) and JD Logistics (2618 HK) all advanced on strong 2Q earnings announcements. 


Tencent Music Entertainment Group (1698 HK) disappointed on earnings and monthly user numbers.  Country Garden Services (6098 HK) declined in anticipation of a large drop in earnings in 2Q 2024.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Q-tech announced in-line 1H24 results driven by strong CCM/FPM growth and GPM improvement on smartphone demand rebound, share gains, an increasing UTR and a better high-end product mix.</li><li>For 2H24/2025, we remain positive on high-end spec upgrade to drive ASP/GPM, auto CCM sales growth to accelerate under rising NEV penetration and ultra-sound FPM upgrade in smartphones.</li><li>We slightly adjust down FY24-25E EPS by 1-8% to factor in 1H24 results and 2H seasonality, and our new EPS is 19-24% above consensus. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q-tech announced in-line 1H24 results driven by strong CCM/FPM growth and GPM improvement on smartphone demand rebound, share gains, an increasing UTR and a better high-end product mix.For 2H24/2025, we remain positive on high-end spec upgrade to drive ASP/GPM, auto CCM sales growth to accelerate under rising NEV penetration and ultra-sound FPM upgrade in smartphones.We slightly adjust down FY24-25E EPS by 1-8% to factor in 1H24 results and 2H seasonality, and our new EPS is 19-24% above consensus. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q-Tech (1478 HK) - 1H24 Earnings Recovery on Fast Track; Reiterate BUY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Apple reported 3QFY24 (2QCY24) revenue of US$85.78bn (+5% YoY) and EPS of US$1.40 (+11% YoY), which are 2% and 3% above Bloomberg consensus, thanks to strong iPad sales (+24%), record services revenue (+14%), and record sales in Americas, Europe, and the rest of APAC offsetting China weakness.</li><li>For 4QFY24E, mgmt. expected revenue to grow at a similar pace (+5% YoY) as fiscal 3Q, and service revenue to grow double digits at a similar rate (+10-14%) as the previous three quarters.</li><li>With the upcoming launch of Apple Intelligence/iOS18 in fall, we expect AI features and product upgrades to boost replacement cycle of iPhone 16 in 2H24E. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple reported 3QFY24 (2QCY24) revenue of US$85.78bn (+5% YoY) and EPS of US$1.40 (+11% YoY), which are 2% and 3% above Bloomberg consensus, thanks to strong iPad sales (+24%), record services revenue (+14%), and record sales in Americas, Europe, and the rest of APAC offsetting China weakness.For 4QFY24E, mgmt. expected revenue to grow at a similar pace (+5% YoY) as fiscal 3Q, and service revenue to grow double digits at a similar rate (+10-14%) as the previous three quarters.With the upcoming launch of Apple Intelligence/iOS18 in fall, we expect AI features and product upgrades to boost replacement cycle of iPhone 16 in 2H24E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Apple 3QFY24 Beat on Strong IPad and Services

Sunny Optical Technology Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Hong Kong market trades about 30% below analysts' estimated 12 month target price.</li>
<li>Analysts are raising forecasts for<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> as it meets success with new phone rollouts and its EV business.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> had a positive profit alert and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minth-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9232:1" rel="noopener">Minth Group Ltd (425 HK)</a> is showing growth in its international business. Both are rated BUY from analysts.</li>
</ul>


The Hong Kong market trades about 30% below analysts' estimated 12 month target price.
Analysts are raising forecasts forXiaomi Corp (1810 HK) as it meets success with new phone rollouts and its EV business.  

Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) had a positive profit alert and Minth Group Ltd (425 HK) is showing growth in its international business. Both are rated BUY from analysts.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 22)

Budweiser Brewing  APAC  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market still trades at a substantial discount to Analyst year end price targets.</li>
<li>Budweiser APAC is dependent on China's consumer to lift sales while Anta Sports is targeting increased sales from the upcoming Paris Olympics.</li>
<li>Sunny Optical is seeing substantial growth from it EV segment and Haitian continues to grow its international sales.  Shineway RX is a rare value play in the pharmaceutical sector.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market still trades at a substantial discount to Analyst year end price targets.
Budweiser APAC is dependent on China's consumer to lift sales while Anta Sports is targeting increased sales from the upcoming Paris Olympics.
Sunny Optical is seeing substantial growth from it EV segment and Haitian continues to grow its international sales.  Shineway RX is a rare value play in the pharmaceutical sector.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)

China

Q TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) Company Limited is a PRC-based camera module manufacturer focusing on mid-to-high end camera module market for Chinese branded smartphone, tablet and PC manufacturers.

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Q Technology Group (1478 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 16)

Japan ETF flows have been light after the massive outflow from carry trade unwind. Qifu Tech, Q Tech and JDL all had positive earnings announcement...

David Mudd

Q-Tech (1478 HK) - 1H24 Earnings Recovery on Fast Track; Reiterate BUY

Q-tech announced in-line 1H24 results driven by strong CCM/FPM growth and GPM improvement on smartphone demand rebound, share gains, an increasing...

CMB International

Technology - Apple 3QFY24 Beat on Strong IPad and Services

Apple reported 3QFY24 (2QCY24) revenue of US$85.78bn (+5% YoY) and EPS of US$1.40 (+11% YoY), which are 2% and 3% above Bloomberg consensus

CMB International

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 22)

Xiaomi launches its new AI enabled phone and has success in EVs. Sunny Optical has seen its auto lens business grow and Minth is successfully...

David Mudd

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stocks Update (July 15)

Hong Kong markets continue to trade at a 25% discount to analysts year end targets. Bud APAC, Anta Sports, Sunny Optical and Shineway RX are...

David Mudd

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