Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Why does <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? </li>
<li>From <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  </li>
<li>Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  </li>
</ul>


Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? 
From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  
Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  


Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the largest impact passive sell. </li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in September but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.25% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$3bn. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the largest impact passive sell. 
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US) at the close on Friday.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.</li>
<li>We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.</li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) has not given up on Intel Foundry Service (IFS), even though it currently lacks any sizable clients.
We are puzzled as to why Intel former CEO Pat Gelsinger insisted on entering the foundry market, which has so far weakened Intel’s financials without generating meaningful returns.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) CEO has publicly stated that Intel’s manufacturing technology is still not competitive.


Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Nota suggests target price of 11,948 won per share, which represents 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (9,100 won).</li>
<li>Nota's technology enables efficient operation of high-performance AI models. It has been able to develop one of the first commercially available generative AI-based intelligent video surveillance solution in Korea.</li>
<li>We estimate Nota to generate revenue of 13.8 billion won (up 65% YoY) in 2025 and 21.7 billion won (up 57% YoY) in 2026. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Nota suggests target price of 11,948 won per share, which represents 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range (9,100 won).
Nota's technology enables efficient operation of high-performance AI models. It has been able to develop one of the first commercially available generative AI-based intelligent video surveillance solution in Korea.
We estimate Nota to generate revenue of 13.8 billion won (up 65% YoY) in 2025 and 21.7 billion won (up 57% YoY) in 2026. 


<ul>
<li>Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota specializes in lightweight and optimized artificial intelligence (AI) technology.</li>
<li>The IPO price range is from 7,600 won to 9,100 won. At this price range, the company's expected market cap is from 163 billion won to 196 billion won. </li>
<li>Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance AI models even on resource-constrained edge devices, centered around its proprietary AI model optimization platform, NetsPresso®.</li>
</ul>


Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota specializes in lightweight and optimized artificial intelligence (AI) technology.
The IPO price range is from 7,600 won to 9,100 won. At this price range, the company's expected market cap is from 163 billion won to 196 billion won. 
Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance AI models even on resource-constrained edge devices, centered around its proprietary AI model optimization platform, NetsPresso®.


United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Nota IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Nota suggests target price of 11,948 won per share, which represents 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Nota IPO Preview

Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance...

Douglas Kim

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Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

​Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.

Patrick Liao

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

Capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.25% and a US$3bn trade for the SMH ETF in Sep. There will be more flows in the stocks...

Brian Freitas

Intel (INTC.US): Qualcomm CEO Has Publicly Stated that Intel’s Technology Is Still Not Competitive.

Intel has so far weakened its IFS financials without generating meaningful returns, while Qualcomm has publicly stated Intel’s manufacturing...

Patrick Liao

Nota IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Nota suggests target price of 11,948 won per share, which represents 31% higher than the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Nota IPO Preview

Nota is getting ready to complete its IPO on KOSDAQ in September. Nota provides technology that enables the efficient operation of high-performance...

Douglas Kim

Intel's CFO plans to use TSMC long-term, as TSMC avoids competition with customers. The future adoption of Intel's 14A technology is uncertain.