AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Handset and edge networking demand powered a strong QCT beat, but licensing growth underwhelmed, and margins declined sequentially.</li>
<li>Apple modem revenues will fade by 2026, and the management conspicuously avoided commentary on China auto; both adding to uncertainty.</li>
<li>Snapdragon X's monetisation has been deferred,  while XR design momentum was a rare bright spot beyond mobile.</li>
</ul>


Handset and edge networking demand powered a strong QCT beat, but licensing growth underwhelmed, and margins declined sequentially.
Apple modem revenues will fade by 2026, and the management conspicuously avoided commentary on China auto; both adding to uncertainty.
Snapdragon X's monetisation has been deferred,  while XR design momentum was a rare bright spot beyond mobile.


[Earnings Review] Qualcomm Rides Android Wave, But Apple Exit and Licensing Strains Linger

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer</li>
<li>Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology</li>
<li>What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?


Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.</li>
<li>Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.</li>
</ul>


Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).
Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.
Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.


Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

<ul>
<li>We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.</li>
<li>We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.</li>
<li>We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.</li>
</ul>


We see early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone markets, stable server market (strengths in AI server, stable in non-AI server market), but weaknesses in automotive and industrial.
We expect the PC semi market recovery of more than 10% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and silicon contents increase by adding AI into PC.
We expect the smartphone semi market recovery of 7-8% y/y in 2024/2025, driven by inventory rebuild and adopting 3nE foundry node. But, Huawei/HiSilicon will take some of the growth.


First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

[Earnings Review] Qualcomm Rides Android Wave, But Apple Exit and Licensing Strains Linger

QCT beats expectations with strong handset demand, but licensing growth disappoints and margins decline. Uncertainty also looms with fading Apple...

Mint Finance

Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?

What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

William Keating

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

[Earnings Review] Qualcomm Rides Android Wave, But Apple Exit and Licensing Strains Linger

​QCT beats expectations with strong handset demand, but licensing growth disappoints and margins decline. Uncertainty also looms with fading Apple...

Mint Finance

Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?

What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

William Keating

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

First Run of Global Semis' Guidances to Tell Early Signs of Recovery

After the first Run of global semis' guidance, it tells early signs of recovery in PC and smartphone but weaknesses in automotive and industrial,...

Andrew Lu

QCT beats expectations with strong handset demand, but licensing growth disappoints and margins decline. Uncertainty also looms with fading Apple...