Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.</li><li>This last year was the year of AI through and through.</li><li>There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.</li></ul>

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and the immense growth spurt happened all right.This last year was the year of AI through and through.There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>After the peak of 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a>'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  </li>
<li>TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> could present products around 1Q26.</li>
<li>TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. </li>
</ul>


After the peak of 4Q24, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)'s  revenue will see a decline of about -5% QoQ in 1Q25.  
TSMC is expected to use 2nm technology in 4Q25, and we believe Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) and Apple (AAPL US) could present products around 1Q26.
TSMC could be set to announce its 2nm production plans, expansion into the US, Germany, and Japan, mature technology quotations, and the Capex budget for 2025. 


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Xiaomi's Japan market share rose to ~7% in C2Q24 from the year prior, driven by carrier partnerships and brand recognition from <em>SU7</em> media coverage and  a product partnership with LEICA;</li>
<li>Upon examination, we found Xiaomi filled a product gap left by the smartphone exits of Kyocera and Fujitsu, for the carriers, which account for 90% of handset sales in Japan;</li>
<li>In our view, Xiaomi’s success in Japan marks a turning point in its global brand perception, signaling potential for further growth in other developed and high end developing markets.</li>
</ul>


Xiaomi's Japan market share rose to ~7% in C2Q24 from the year prior, driven by carrier partnerships and brand recognition from SU7 media coverage and  a product partnership with LEICA;
Upon examination, we found Xiaomi filled a product gap left by the smartphone exits of Kyocera and Fujitsu, for the carriers, which account for 90% of handset sales in Japan;
In our view, Xiaomi’s success in Japan marks a turning point in its global brand perception, signaling potential for further growth in other developed and high end developing markets.


Xiaomi's Smartphone Share Gain in Japan Is a Harbinger of Good Things to Come

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33361:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOGL US)</a> Pixel 10 will use the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> T9000 modem.  </li>
<li>The shipment quantity to the smartphone market is small, and we see this as a small triumph for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> is facing a 3nm process issue and lacks the capacity to support its own smartphone CPU Exynos 2400.</li>
</ul>



Alphabet (GOOGL US) Pixel 10 will use the Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) T9000 modem.  
The shipment quantity to the smartphone market is small, and we see this as a small triumph for Mediatek Inc (2454 TT).

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) is facing a 3nm process issue and lacks the capacity to support its own smartphone CPU Exynos 2400.


MediaTek (2454.TT): Google Pixel 10 Will Use MediaTek's Modem

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Report -- Google Drops QCOM, Shifts to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G Modems</li>
<li>Strong "Double" Indication for Mediatek's Competitiveness -- Combined with Recent Reports that Mediatek Won Apple to Provide Modems for the Apple Watch</li>
<li>Mediatek's Opportunity to Deliver a Big Win for Google; Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for Mediatek.</li>
</ul>


Report -- Google Drops QCOM, Shifts to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G Modems
Strong "Double" Indication for Mediatek's Competitiveness -- Combined with Recent Reports that Mediatek Won Apple to Provide Modems for the Apple Watch
Mediatek's Opportunity to Deliver a Big Win for Google; Maintain Our Structural Long Rating for Mediatek.


Mediatek: Google Reportedly Dropping QCOM & Adopting Mediatek for Pixel 10 Modem; Structural Long

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

MediaTek (2454.TT): Google Pixel 10 Will Use MediaTek's Modem

Alphabet's Pixel 10 to use Mediatek T9000 modem, a small win for Mediatek. Samsung faces 3nm process issue for Exynos 2400 CPU.

Patrick Liao

Mediatek: Google Reportedly Dropping QCOM & Adopting Mediatek for Pixel 10 Modem; Structural Long

Google is reportedly switching from Qualcomm to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G modems, showing Mediatek's competitiveness and potential for to deliver...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook

Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a tremendous growth spurt, and...

Fabricated Knowledge

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 1Q25 Outlook, TSMC Will Use 2nm in 4Q25, and Production Will Occur in 1Q26.

​TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Patrick Liao

Xiaomi's Smartphone Share Gain in Japan Is a Harbinger of Good Things to Come

Xiaomi’s Japan success signals a broader global improvement in its brand image. High-profile products like the 14 Ultra and SU7 EV drive a shift...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

MediaTek (2454.TT): Google Pixel 10 Will Use MediaTek's Modem

​Alphabet's Pixel 10 to use Mediatek T9000 modem, a small win for Mediatek. Samsung faces 3nm process issue for Exynos 2400 CPU.

Patrick Liao

Mediatek: Google Reportedly Dropping QCOM & Adopting Mediatek for Pixel 10 Modem; Structural Long

​Google is reportedly switching from Qualcomm to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G modems, showing Mediatek's competitiveness and potential for to deliver...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC's revenue to decline in 1Q25, but expected to use 2nm technology by 4Q25 with potential partnerships with AMD and Apple by 1Q26. Expansion...

Alphabet's Pixel 10 to use Mediatek T9000 modem, a small win for Mediatek. Samsung faces 3nm process issue for Exynos 2400 CPU.

Google is reportedly switching from Qualcomm to MediaTek for Pixel 10's 5G modems, showing Mediatek's competitiveness and potential for to deliver...