IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Dongzheng Automotive Finance / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-dongzheng-automotive-finance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27984:1" rel="noopener">Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)</a>'s composite document is out with the offer open from 15 September to 6 October. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saic-motor-corp-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20833:1" rel="noopener">SAIC Motor (600104 CH)</a>, which acquired a 71.04% stake, has launched an unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 per H Share. SAIC intends to maintain Dongzheng’s listing status.</li>
<li>At the last close and the 17 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 1.1% and 13.3%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK)'s composite document is out with the offer open from 15 September to 6 October. The IFA considers the offer to be fair and reasonable.

SAIC Motor (600104 CH), which acquired a 71.04% stake, has launched an unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 per H Share. SAIC intends to maintain Dongzheng’s listing status.
At the last close and the 17 October payment, the gross and annualised spread to the MGO price is 1.1% and 13.3%, respectively.


Dongzheng’s Unconditional MGO at HK$1.2430 Opens

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

Home Credit N.V. is an emerging market consumer finance company and they are planning to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange with various media reports suggesting that the company could raise more than $1.0bn through the IPO.
In our previous insight: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/home-credit-ipo-nim-improvement-driven-by-mismatch-in-maturity-of-assets-and-liabilities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32194" rel="noopener">Home Credit IPO: NIM Improvement Driven by Mismatch in Maturity of Assets and Liabilities</a>, we pointed out some important details such as the NIM outlook, likely reasons for slowing POS loans growth and its long-term repercussions, NPL ratio outlook and a more accurate estimation of the NPL coverage ratio.
Here we focus more on the valuation of the company, using a blend of valuation methodologies. Furthermore, we think it is also important to run bear and bull case scenarios as similar companies in the industry are exposed to macro factors/risks more than most other industries.
We look at the capital adequacy side of the business to assess the minimum capital requirement for achieving the growth estimates.

Home Credit N.V. is an emerging market consumer finance company and they are planning to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange with various media reports suggesting that the company could raise more than $1.0bn through the IPO.
In our previous insight: Home Credit IPO: NIM Improvement Driven by Mismatch in Maturity of Assets and Liabilities, we pointed out some important details such as the NIM outlook, likely reasons for slowing POS loans growth and its long-term repercussions, NPL ratio outlook and a more accurate estimation of the NPL coverage ratio.
Here we focus more on the valuation of the company, using a blend of valuation methodologies. Furthermore, we think it is also important to run bear and bull case scenarios as similar companies in the industry are exposed to macro factors/risks more than most other industries.
We look at the capital adequacy side of the business to assess the minimum capital requirement for achieving the growth estimates.

Home Credit IPO Valuation: Pricing Is Likely to Be Towards the Lower End of Our Target Valuation

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing services in China, focusing on SME’s in the province of Hubei. The company announced late last week that its FY18 (ending March 2018) will see an even higher loss of at least HKD340 million compared with its HKD277 million loss in FY17. The causes for this: less revenue, higher provisions. To us, this is ultimately the way forward for China’s banks…

We often look at fringe finance companies as a window on mainstream banks. China Rongzhong Financial Holdings (CRZFH) provides financial leasing services in China, focusing on SME’s in the province of Hubei. The company announced late last week that its FY18 (ending March 2018) will see an even higher loss of at least HKD340 million compared with its HKD277 million loss in FY17. The causes for this: less revenue, higher provisions. To us, this is ultimately the way forward for China’s banks…

China Banks – Periphery Lender Reveals Worsening Financials

China

Quanzhou Huixin Micro-Credit Co., Ltd. offers micro lending and other related financial services to individuals and small business throughout China.

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