Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>In KTX's view, unless the new government introduces substantial fiscal measures aimed at bolstering the economy that significantly heighten inflation risks, the MPC is likely to maintain the policy interest rate in the September 27 meeting.</li><li>We recommend buying on weakness in property development and retail stocks on the expectation that the Thai interest rate uptrend will soon peak.</li><li>We also suggest delaying investment in the finance sector while awaiting clarity concerning the BoT's hire purchase policies and bad debt write-off procedures.</li></ul>

In KTX's view, unless the new government introduces substantial fiscal measures aimed at bolstering the economy that significantly heighten inflation risks, the MPC is likely to maintain the policy interest rate in the September 27 meeting.We recommend buying on weakness in property development and retail stocks on the expectation that the Thai interest rate uptrend will soon peak.We also suggest delaying investment in the finance sector while awaiting clarity concerning the BoT's hire purchase policies and bad debt write-off procedures.

Low CPI Trend Likely to Prompt MPC to Maintain Interest Rates

<ul><li>While financial markets see a 93% probability that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 0.25% to 5.25% in the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, KTX expects it to maintain the rate.</li><li>Another Fed rate hike would exacerbate the problems in the banking sector, especially amid the debt ceiling crisis, by further tightening liquidity and increasing the risk of debt defaults, which would eventually worsen the economic slowdown.</li><li>The necessity for another rate hike has abated due to the continued decline in US inflation, with the real rate having turned positive after the CPI in March equal the current interest rate of 5%.</li></ul>

While financial markets see a 93% probability that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 0.25% to 5.25% in the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, KTX expects it to maintain the rate.Another Fed rate hike would exacerbate the problems in the banking sector, especially amid the debt ceiling crisis, by further tightening liquidity and increasing the risk of debt defaults, which would eventually worsen the economic slowdown.The necessity for another rate hike has abated due to the continued decline in US inflation, with the real rate having turned positive after the CPI in March equal the current interest rate of 5%.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,523/1,518 points and the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points.</li><li>The key issues today include US and global equity markets potentially being boosted by the expectation that the Fed could decide to maintain interest rates on May 3 (this differs from the market view expecting the Fed to raise the fed funds rate once more).</li><li>We recommend stocks benefiting from the peaking of interest rates and the downtrend of bond yields, namely those in the property sector (AP and QH) and the finance sector (AEONTS).</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,523/1,518 points and the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points.The key issues today include US and global equity markets potentially being boosted by the expectation that the Fed could decide to maintain interest rates on May 3 (this differs from the market view expecting the Fed to raise the fed funds rate once more).We recommend stocks benefiting from the peaking of interest rates and the downtrend of bond yields, namely those in the property sector (AP and QH) and the finance sector (AEONTS).

<ul><li>The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points.</li><li>Investment strategy: We suggest stocks related to China's reopening in response to the country's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs beating the expectations.</li><li>We also recommend tourism stocks, as they directly benefit from the reopening of China and the expansion in the service sector, which has boosted purchasing power and the number of tourist arrivals to Thailand.</li></ul>

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points.Investment strategy: We suggest stocks related to China's reopening in response to the country's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs beating the expectations.We also recommend tourism stocks, as they directly benefit from the reopening of China and the expansion in the service sector, which has boosted purchasing power and the number of tourist arrivals to Thailand.

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delisting-deceitful-chinese-companies-act-not-a-slam-dunk-and-has-more-bark-than-bite-if-it-passes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40025" rel="noopener">"Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes</a>, I made three "predictions." First, the U.S. House of Representatives would not get around to voting on the "delisting act" before the end of the Congressional session. Second, if the House does vote, it would likely pass the bill. Third, if the bill passes, it would have more bark than bite.As a bloke called Meat Loaf once sung, "two out of three ain't bad."On Wednesday, the House voted and passed Senate Bill 945, titled the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." That the House managed to vote amidst the dual chaos of a raging pandemic and an unhinged President – so close to adjourning this 116th Congress – is a surprise. That it voted to pass S945 is not at all surprising, however, given widespread bi-partisan support for the bill.The real epiphany comes from additional details provided during House testimony just prior to the vote. Not many, but those details that were disclosed (plus the tone in which they were articulated) shed light on how S945 will be implemented and enforced by the SEC, and why foreign issuers and investors should duly-cautious but not overly-concerned. And why this "delisting bill" is ...... more bark than bite.This Insight presents an updated analysis of S945 (general and China/Hong Kong-specific aspects), shares new details provided by Representative Brad Sherman, offers an opinion on the SEC's likely approach to writing and enforcing S945 rules, analyses China/Hong Kong stocks most at risk under S945, and stocks affected by the France/Belgium angle (similar to China/Hong Kong).

In "Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes, I made three "predictions." First, the U.S. House of Representatives would not get around to voting on the "delisting act" before the end of the Congressional session. Second, if the House does vote, it would likely pass the bill. Third, if the bill passes, it would have more bark than bite.As a bloke called Meat Loaf once sung, "two out of three ain't bad."On Wednesday, the House voted and passed Senate Bill 945, titled the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." That the House managed to vote amidst the dual chaos of a raging pandemic and an unhinged President – so close to adjourning this 116th Congress – is a surprise. That it voted to pass S945 is not at all surprising, however, given widespread bi-partisan support for the bill.The real epiphany comes from additional details provided during House testimony just prior to the vote. Not many, but those details that were disclosed (plus the tone in which they were articulated) shed light on how S945 will be implemented and enforced by the SEC, and why foreign issuers and investors should duly-cautious but not overly-concerned. And why this "delisting bill" is ...... more bark than bite.This Insight presents an updated analysis of S945 (general and China/Hong Kong-specific aspects), shares new details provided by Representative Brad Sherman, offers an opinion on the SEC's likely approach to writing and enforcing S945 rules, analyses China/Hong Kong stocks most at risk under S945, and stocks affected by the France/Belgium angle (similar to China/Hong Kong).

House Passes "Delisting Act" Giving SEC 90 Days to Write Its Rules (And Yes, More Bark Than Bite)

China

Quhuo Limited provides IT services. The Company offers technological infrastructure for workers and service companies. Quhuo serves customers in China.

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Quhuo Limited (QH US)

Low CPI Trend Likely to Prompt MPC to Maintain Interest Rates

In KTX's view, unless the new government introduces substantial fiscal measures aimed at bolstering the economy that significantly heighten...

Krungthai XSpring

KTX Expects the Fed to End Rate Hikes

While financial markets see a 93% probability that the Fed will raise the fed funds rate by 0.25% to 5.25% in the upcoming FOMC meeting on May...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,523/1,518 points and the resistance at 1,540/1,545 points. The key issues today include...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index today is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,615/1,607 points and the resistance at 1,630/1,635 points. Investment strategy:...

Krungthai XSpring

House Passes "Delisting Act" Giving SEC 90 Days to Write Its Rules (And Yes, More Bark Than Bite)

The U.S. House of Representatives passed Senate Bill 945, the "Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act." New details support the notion that S945...

Kyle Rudden

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