Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.</li>
<li>Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.</li>
</ul>


We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.


Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

High Quality Stock Setups, Weekly Stock Bull Finder

Weekly Stock Bull Finder

High Quality Stock Setups

Finding high potential stock setups on quality companies

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production or curtailing production due to spiraling energy costs. </li><li>This includes steel companies, fertilizer companies, aluminum foundries, and chemical companies which use natural gas in manufacturing to produce their end products. </li><li>This got me thinking these announcements may be just the next leg of continuing the theme started by Howard Mark’s memo (link below) of the “pendulum swing” whereby the inability to have cheap and stable energy prices will likely result in companies seeking alternative supply sources away from Europe.</li></ul>

The past two weeks have been full of announcements by various companies in Europe’s industrial sector that they are either shutting down production or curtailing production due to spiraling energy costs. This includes steel companies, fertilizer companies, aluminum foundries, and chemical companies which use natural gas in manufacturing to produce their end products. This got me thinking these announcements may be just the next leg of continuing the theme started by Howard Mark’s memo (link below) of the “pendulum swing” whereby the inability to have cheap and stable energy prices will likely result in companies seeking alternative supply sources away from Europe.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a> priced its H Share at HK$82.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$13,062 million (US$1.7 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>The H Share listing (HK$82.00) and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3300412/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E5%9B%9B%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E9%BD%8A%E8%B7%8C%E3%80%80%E5%A4%A9%E9%BD%8A%E9%8B%B0%E6%A5%AD9696%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E6%9A%AB%E8%9D%951100%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grey market price</a> (HK$76.50) imply an AH discount of 45% and 49%, respectively. This compares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a>’s current 35.3% AH discount.</li>
<li>The relative valuation is attractive. At the H Share listing price, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a>’s H Share trades at a -6% discount to the median peers’ CY2022 P/B multiple.</li>
</ul>



Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH) priced its H Share at HK$82.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$13,062 million (US$1.7 billion). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
The H Share listing (HK$82.00) and grey market price (HK$76.50) imply an AH discount of 45% and 49%, respectively. This compares to Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)’s current 35.3% AH discount.
The relative valuation is attractive. At the H Share listing price, Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)’s H Share trades at a -6% discount to the median peers’ CY2022 P/B multiple.


Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Trading Debut

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>On the ECM front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noah-holdings-ltd-spon-ads" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13585:1" rel="noopener">Noah Holdings (NOAH US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a> will debut on 13 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emperador-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3485:1" rel="noopener">Emperador Inc (EMP PM)</a> is pre-marketing a US$300-500m IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano International (709 HK)</a>, DTAC/True, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hwa-hong-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6648:1" rel="noopener">Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocoaland-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:493:1" rel="noopener">Cocoaland Holdings (COLA MK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
On the ECM front, Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH), Noah Holdings (NOAH US) and Miniso (MNSO US) will debut on 13 July, Emperador Inc (EMP PM) is pre-marketing a US$300-500m IPO.
Event-Driven developments at Link Administration (LNK AU), Giordano International (709 HK), DTAC/True, Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Cocoaland Holdings (COLA MK). 


Weekly Deals Digest (10 Jul) - Tianqi Lithium, Noah Holdings, Emperador, Link Admin, Hwa Hong

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianqi-lithium-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27789:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK)</a> has launched its H Share listing at an indicative price range of HK$69.00-82.00 per share. Pricing is on 6 July and listing on 13 July.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-tianqi-lithium-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5698:1" rel="noopener">Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)</a>'s AH discount range of 52.9%-44.0% is reasonable in the context of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26795:1" rel="noopener">Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)</a>’s average AH discount is 38.5% since its H Share listing.</li>
<li>Our relative valuation analysis suggests that Tianqi's H Share valuation is attractive in comparison to median peers' multiples. </li>
</ul>



Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) has launched its H Share listing at an indicative price range of HK$69.00-82.00 per share. Pricing is on 6 July and listing on 13 July.

Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH)'s AH discount range of 52.9%-44.0% is reasonable in the context of Ganfeng Lithium (1772 HK)’s average AH discount is 38.5% since its H Share listing.
Our relative valuation analysis suggests that Tianqi's H Share valuation is attractive in comparison to median peers' multiples. 


Tianqi Lithium H Share Listing: Valuation Insights

Chile

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA produces and markets specialty fertilizers including potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, and potassium sulfate for the agricultural industry.  The Company also produces industrial chemicals, iodine and lithium.  SQM markets its products in over 100 countries.

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)

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Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM US)

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Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Tianqi's AH discount range is reasonable. The H Share valuation is attractive in comparison to median peers' multiples. Participate in the H Share...

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