Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

In May 2016 we published our very first note on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:149:1">Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP)</a>, in which we suggested a pair trade: Long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8239" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> against a Short position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a>. Our thesis was that, after years of depressed earnings due to high fuel prices and competition from High Speed Rail, core earnings at Air China were set to improve strongly in 2016-17, enabling the company's shares to perform as a proxy for growing Chinese tourism activity. On the Short…

In May 2016 we published our very first note on Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP), in which we suggested a pair trade: Long Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) against a Short position in Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US). Our thesis was that, after years of depressed earnings due to high fuel prices and competition from High Speed Rail, core earnings at Air China were set to improve strongly in 2016-17, enabling the company's shares to perform as a proxy for growing Chinese tourism activity. On the Short…

Closing Air China / Ctrip.com Long-Short Pair Trade Idea After Air China's Strong Recent Performance

Late Wednesday morning in New York <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a> was hit by news stories suggesting that certain of its sales practices were being investigated by authorities in China. Specifically, some Chinese consumers have complained that they inadvertently purchased ancillary items (travel insurance, restaurant vouchers, etc) due to a needlessly confusing opt-in / opt-out process on CTRP's website. If the reports turn out to be true, it may help to explain the dramatic Y/Y…

Late Wednesday morning in New York Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) was hit by news stories suggesting that certain of its sales practices were being investigated by authorities in China. Specifically, some Chinese consumers have complained that they inadvertently purchased ancillary items (travel insurance, restaurant vouchers, etc) due to a needlessly confusing opt-in / opt-out process on CTRP's website. If the reports turn out to be true, it may help to explain the dramatic Y/Y…

10 Things We Hate About Ctrip.com (As an Investment)

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

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Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in casinos effective on Jan. 1, 2019, one year later than our existing expectation. Our current forecasts across our narrow moat coverage universe already factor in a negative mid-single-digit percentage point impact to VIP play in 2018, and postponing that one year is not expected to have any significant impact to our fair value estimates. Our current fair value estimates per share are HKD 17 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/472" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:472:1">MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK)</a>, HKD 36 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/182" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1">Sands China Ltd (1928 HK)</a>, HKD 14 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/473" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:473:1">Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK)</a>, USD 17 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/810" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:810:1">Melco Crown Entertainment ADR (MPEL US)</a>, HKD 36 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/806" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:806:1">Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (27 HK)</a>, HKD 6.6 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/805" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:805:1">SJM Holdings Ltd (880 HK)</a>, $133 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/606" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:606:1">Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US)</a>, $56 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/807" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1">Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US)</a>, and $29.50 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16227:1">MGM Resorts International (MGM US)</a>. We continue to see Wynn trading at an attractive margin of safety.The revised bill creates a level playing field for casino operators. We have confirmed with a Macau legislative assembly member that the revised bill outlines that all VIP smoking gaming areas will be closed and that all casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges on both VIP and mass gaming floors. Therefore, under the proposed bill newer casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges in VIP gaming areas, while the older casinos will lose the smoking premium mass and VIP smoking area. As a result, Cotai casinos as a whole stand to gain market share at the expense of Macau peninsula casinos.Analyst: Chelsea Tam

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in casinos effective on Jan. 1, 2019, one year later than our existing expectation. Our current forecasts across our narrow moat coverage universe already factor in a negative mid-single-digit percentage point impact to VIP play in 2018, and postponing that one year is not expected to have any significant impact to our fair value estimates. Our current fair value estimates per share are HKD 17 for MGM China Holdings Ltd (2282 HK), HKD 36 for Sands China Ltd (1928 HK), HKD 14 for Wynn Macau Ltd (1128 HK), USD 17 for Melco Crown Entertainment ADR (MPEL US), HKD 36 for Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited (27 HK), HKD 6.6 for SJM Holdings Ltd (880 HK), $133 for Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN US), $56 for Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS US), and $29.50 for MGM Resorts International (MGM US). We continue to see Wynn trading at an attractive margin of safety.The revised bill creates a level playing field for casino operators. We have confirmed with a Macau legislative assembly member that the revised bill outlines that all VIP smoking gaming areas will be closed and that all casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges on both VIP and mass gaming floors. Therefore, under the proposed bill newer casinos will be able to establish smoking lounges in VIP gaming areas, while the older casinos will lose the smoking premium mass and VIP smoking area. As a result, Cotai casinos as a whole stand to gain market share at the expense of Macau peninsula casinos.Analyst: Chelsea Tam

Expected Macau Smoking Ban Creates a Level Playing Field for Operators

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies., Asia Frontier Capital

Scott Osheroff

Investing in high growth Asian frontier economies.

Asia Frontier Capital

Asia Frontier Capital Ltd. is a pioneering fund management company based in Hong Kong that specializes in investing in high growth Asian frontier economies by managing the AFC Asia Frontier Fund , AFC Iraq Fund and the AFC Vietnam Fund.

The AFC Asia Frontier Fund invests in public equities of Asian frontier countries that are seeing increasing consumption due to favorable demographic trends, rising incomes and high GDP growth. The fund invests in listed equities of companies that have their principal business activities in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Iraq, Laos, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar (Burma), Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka and Vietnam. The AFC Asia Frontier Fund is positioned to take advantage of the continuing economic shifts in these countries and offers high returns combined with significant diversification opportunities. This fund is directed by the founder and CEO of Asia Frontier Capital, Thomas Hugger, who has been investing in frontier markets across Asia and Africa for more than 20 years.

The AFC Iraq Fund was launched on the 26th June 2015 and aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation for investors by capturing value and growth potential in the post conflict high-growth & resource rich Iraq market. The fund emphasises long term investment horizon to truly capture the opportunity in Iraq. The fund's investable universe consists of locally listed companies that have their principal business activities in Iraq as well as foreign listed companies that have the majority of the business in Iraq as a whole including the prosperous Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI). The AFC Iraq Fund offers access to investments in post conflict recovery potential of Iraq, including the KRI, and/or stability in its territory. The AFC Iraq Fund is managed by Asia Frontier Capital (Iraq) Limited, Cayman Islands under the executive leadership team of Thomas Hugger (CEO & Fund Manager) and Ahmed Tabaqchali (CIO) who have more than 47 years of investment experience as well as an extensive background covering global, emerging, frontier and MENA markets.

The AFC Vietnam Fund invests exclusively in listed Vietnamese equities to capture value in growth companies with a focus on the small to medium size companies. This market segment offers a unique investment opportunity as the valuation gap between large- and small-cap stocks in Vietnam is presently much wider than in comparable neighboring markets and the valuations are significantly depressed versus their regional peers. The fund adopts a fundamental-quantitative approach and employs an in-house earnings model to identify attractive companies where we see high growth opportunities. In conjunction with targeting the maximum upside potential the portfolio has been structured to mitigate corporate government and liquidity risks. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of 70-90 attractively valued companies to carefully control concentration risk.  This approach allows the fund to sell, or buy, positions without having a significant market impact. The fund is directed under the executive leadership of Thomas Hugger and Andreas Vogelsanger who have more than 50 years combined experience managing investments in frontier markets, Asia and around the world.

For more information about the fund, management team and investment strategy please contact us at info@asiafrontiercapital.com.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos to visit portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos to visit portfolio companies and other companies on our shortlist. The photos in this article are all by AFC.

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Laos

Overall, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a> net revenue in Q4 increased by 76% Y/Y to US$730 mn, beating the consensus revenue estimate by about 1%, or US$7 mn. The main driver of strong revenue growth was the consolidation of affiliate Qunar's financials. The company also managed to report positive earnings per ADS on the back of a large non-cash re-valuation gain on an investment, and it offered Q1 revenue guidance that investors viewed positively. The stock traded up approximately 5%…

Overall, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) net revenue in Q4 increased by 76% Y/Y to US$730 mn, beating the consensus revenue estimate by about 1%, or US$7 mn. The main driver of strong revenue growth was the consolidation of affiliate Qunar's financials. The company also managed to report positive earnings per ADS on the back of a large non-cash re-valuation gain on an investment, and it offered Q1 revenue guidance that investors viewed positively. The stock traded up approximately 5%…

Ctrip.com Q4 Result & Q1 Guidance First Impressions: Low-Quality Earnings, Low-Quality Growth

China

Qunar Cayman Islands Limited operates a search-based commerce platform. The Company provides travel product information from thousands of travel services providers in one location. Qunar Cayman Islands offers its services in China.

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Qunar Cayman Islands (QUNR US)

Closing Air China / Ctrip.com Long-Short Pair Trade Idea After Air China's Strong Recent Performance

In May 2016 we published our very first note on Smartkarma (SMARTKARMA SP), in which we suggested a pair trade: Long Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)...

Daniel Hellberg

10 Things We Hate About Ctrip.com (As an Investment)

Late Wednesday morning in New York Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) was hit by news stories suggesting that certain of its sales practices...

Daniel Hellberg

Expected Macau Smoking Ban Creates a Level Playing Field for Operators

This week the Macau government proposed to the Second Standing Committee of Macau Legislative Assembly to allow smoking only in smoking lounges in...

Morningstar, Inc.

Asia Frontier Capital Travel Report: Laos

In line with our process of being on the ground in the countries we invest in, Scott Osheroff, Analyst at Asia Frontier Capital, traveled to Laos...

Asia Frontier Capital

Ctrip.com Q4 Result & Q1 Guidance First Impressions: Low-Quality Earnings, Low-Quality Growth

Overall, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) net revenue in Q4 increased by 76% Y/Y to US$730 mn, beating the consensus revenue estimate by...

Daniel Hellberg

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Market Cap (USDm)

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