EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force.

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the Saudi-US relationship and months of press coverage culminated in the announcement of Saudi Vision 2030 today.This note analyses some of the drivers of the changes we have seen in Saudi policy and the likely impact of these going forward on local markets and the oil price.The upshot is that I am, just as was the case in 2015, once more bearish on oil and oil-related equities into summer, although I retain my bullish view longer term.This should also prevent significant appreciation in Middle East markets short-term, although it is likely to be an interesting few years ahead as reforms, many of which necessitate increased economic and market liberalization and sharp increases in FDI, start to come in force. 

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

In <a href="http://www.smartkarma.com/insights/how-oil-can-head-over-100-by-2017" target="_blank">my last thoughts on oil</a>, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the probability of a December OPEC cut was being underpriced by the market.Today we have seen headlines that Saudi will do, Draghi-style, "whatever it takes" to stabilize the oil price including co-operating with the broader OPEC cartel.A shift in Saudi Arabian production strategy was one of the main drivers of the "double dip" in oil prices over the summer…

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume.&nbsp;This has led to markets that are severely overstretched versus their fundamentals.If we look at the oil futures curve structure and elements likely to impact it, oil looks like it may surprise to the upside much as it has surprised to the downside.This piece summarises the bull case for a complex topic.

Saudi Arabia

Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company is an integrated oil and petrochemicals refining company.

Rabigh Refining And Petrochemical Company (PETROR AB)

Rabigh Refining And Petrochemical Company

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Rabigh Refining And Petrochemical Company (PETROR AB)

Saudi: A New Hope?

It has been an interesting few weeks for observers of Saudi Arabia as Doha oil freeze talks failed, concerns re-emerged over the stability of the...

Emad Mostaque

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move...

Emad Mostaque

The Sunni-Shia Canard

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of...

Emad Mostaque

Is an OPEC Cut Imminent?

In my last thoughts on oil, where I plotted some of the structural factors that might take it over $100 in the next few years, I noted that the...

Emad Mostaque

How Oil Can Head over $100 by 2017

Oil markets continue to be turgid as producers look to make up lower prices by increased volume. This has led to markets that are severely...

Emad Mostaque

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)