External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Radico Khaitan: Radico’s Q4FY23 print was weak, with EBITDAM at 9.5% (a 30-quarter low) and PAT falling by 20% despite sustained P&amp;A outperformance</li><li>Net sales grew by 2% YoY (HSIE 5%), with IMFL volumes marginally declining by 0.7% to 7.24mn cases (four-year CAGR at 9%)</li><li>P&amp;A volume/revenue grew by 17/18% (HSIE 14/15%) on a four-year CAGR basis, volumes grew in the high teens</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Radico Khaitan: Radico’s Q4FY23 print was weak, with EBITDAM at 9.5% (a 30-quarter low) and PAT falling by 20% despite sustained P&amp;A outperformanceNet sales grew by 2% YoY (HSIE 5%), with IMFL volumes marginally declining by 0.7% to 7.24mn cases (four-year CAGR at 9%)P&amp;A volume/revenue grew by 17/18% (HSIE 14/15%) on a four-year CAGR basis, volumes grew in the high teensContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Radico Khaitan, Kolte Patil Developers

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/radico-khaitan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20842:1" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)</a> had succeeded in getting de-leveraged to a strong extent,  as mentioned in our previous insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/radico-khaitan-limited-on-the-path-of-getting-debt-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30221" rel="noopener">Radico Khaitan Limited: On the Path of Getting Debt Free</a> </li>
<li>The company has entered into the new capex phase and has accumulated some debt, the annual report F22 also highlights few irregularities on the forensic side.</li>
<li>These include complex structure for land purchase, receivables provisioning, deviation between RoU and lease assets, etc. </li>
</ul>



Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN) had succeeded in getting de-leveraged to a strong extent,  as mentioned in our previous insight, Radico Khaitan Limited: On the Path of Getting Debt Free 
The company has entered into the new capex phase and has accumulated some debt, the annual report F22 also highlights few irregularities on the forensic side.
These include complex structure for land purchase, receivables provisioning, deviation between RoU and lease assets, etc. 


<ul><li>Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recovery</li><li>Urban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain muted</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recoveryUrban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain mutedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 170, based on (1) an increase in crude price realisation and (2) an improvement in domestic gas price realisation</li><li>Q3FY23 revenue/EBITDA at INR 386/204bn, came in marginally above our estimates but APAT, at INR 110bn, came below estimates due to higher-than-expected DD&amp;A and finance costs and lower-than-expected other income</li><li>Crude oil and gas production came broadly in line</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 170, based on (1) an increase in crude price realisation and (2) an improvement in domestic gas price realisationQ3FY23 revenue/EBITDA at INR 386/204bn, came in marginally above our estimates but APAT, at INR 110bn, came below estimates due to higher-than-expected DD&amp;A and finance costs and lower-than-expected other incomeCrude oil and gas production came broadly in lineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Bata India, Prestige Estates, Radico Khaitan

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Allied Blenders & Distillers / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/allied-blenders-distillers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36090:1" rel="noopener">Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers (ABD IN)</a> is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and Equirus Capital will be the bookrunners.</li>
<li>ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY21.</li>
<li>ABD has grown its brand over time and managed to stay profitable, despite COVID-19. However, sales volume has yet to return to pre-COVID levels, along with its profitability. </li>
</ul>



Allied Blenders &amp; Distillers (ABD IN) is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and Equirus Capital will be the bookrunners.
ABD is the largest Indian-owned Indian-made foreign liquor (IMFL) company and the third largest IMFL company in India, in terms of annual sales volumes between FY14 and FY21.
ABD has grown its brand over time and managed to stay profitable, despite COVID-19. However, sales volume has yet to return to pre-COVID levels, along with its profitability. 


Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO - Yet to Recover from COVID-19

India

Radico Khaitan Ltd. produces and distributes branded liquor.   The Company operates molasses and grain distilleries and produces whiskey, rum, brandy, and vodka.  Radico also produces country liquor and extra neutral alcohol.

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Radico Khaitan (RDCK IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Radico Khaitan, Kolte Patil Developers

Radico Khaitan: Radico’s Q4FY23 print was weak, with EBITDAM at 9.5% (a 30-quarter low) and PAT falling by 20% despite sustained P&A outperformance

HDFC Securities

Radico Khaitan: Forensic Analysis

The company has entered into the new capex phase and has accumulated some debt, the annual report F22 also highlights few irregularities on the...

Nitin Mangal

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Bata India, Prestige Estates, Radico Khaitan

We maintain our BUY recommendation on ONGC with a target price of INR 170, based on (1) an increase in crude price realisation and (2) an...

HDFC Securities

Allied Blenders and Distillers Pre-IPO - Yet to Recover from COVID-19

Allied Blenders & Distillers (ABD IN) is looking to raise about US$250m in its upcoming India IPO. I-Sec, Axis Capital, JM Financial, Kotak and...

Ethan Aw

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