New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.</li><li>VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.</li><li>Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.</li></ul>

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

<ul><li>Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs will impact Rakon's US operations, affecting about 1%-2% of total revenue but remain manageable due to high gross margins.</li><li>Rakon is seeking exemptions and clarifications while maintaining its FY25 EBITDA guidance in the lower half of the NZ$5m to NZ$15m range.</li><li>Rakon's strategic adaptations include possible production shifts to minimize tariff costs, with potential competitive advantages due to varying tariff rates among international competitors.</li></ul>

Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs will impact Rakon's US operations, affecting about 1%-2% of total revenue but remain manageable due to high gross margins.Rakon is seeking exemptions and clarifications while maintaining its FY25 EBITDA guidance in the lower half of the NZ$5m to NZ$15m range.Rakon's strategic adaptations include possible production shifts to minimize tariff costs, with potential competitive advantages due to varying tariff rates among international competitors.

Rakon Limited - US Liberation Day Tariffs Impact

<ul><li>Rakon (RAK) announced it has received a non-binding, indicative proposal from a ‘credible industry player’ to purchase 100% of the company in an all-cash offer of NZ$1.70 per share.</li><li>The ‘​​​​​​​incomplete and highly conditional’ offer represents a significant &gt;170% premium to RAK's last undisturbed trading price of NZ$0.62 and is well above our blended spot valuation.</li><li>The timing of the bid appears opportunistic, with RAK amid a cyclical industry downturn that has weighed heavily on its share price.</li></ul>

Rakon (RAK) announced it has received a non-binding, indicative proposal from a ‘credible industry player’ to purchase 100% of the company in an all-cash offer of NZ$1.70 per share.The ‘​​​​​​​incomplete and highly conditional’ offer represents a significant &gt;170% premium to RAK's last undisturbed trading price of NZ$0.62 and is well above our blended spot valuation.The timing of the bid appears opportunistic, with RAK amid a cyclical industry downturn that has weighed heavily on its share price.

Rakon Limited - NZ1.70 Per Share Offer Received

<ul><li>Rakon (RAK) reported a subdued 1H24 with cyclicality evident as its Positioning and Telecommunications revenues slowed considerably.</li><li>A -30% fall in group revenue from 1H23, gross margin erosion from 49.9% to 42.6%, and significant operating deleverage saw underlying EBITDA dive -81% to NZ$5.3m, including &gt;NZ$2m of non-recurring costs.</li><li>While we had anticipated a weak result, given recent peer updates, the magnitude of the decline surpassed our expectations. </li></ul>

Rakon (RAK) reported a subdued 1H24 with cyclicality evident as its Positioning and Telecommunications revenues slowed considerably.A -30% fall in group revenue from 1H23, gross margin erosion from 49.9% to 42.6%, and significant operating deleverage saw underlying EBITDA dive -81% to NZ$5.3m, including &gt;NZ$2m of non-recurring costs.While we had anticipated a weak result, given recent peer updates, the magnitude of the decline surpassed our expectations. 

Rakon Limited- 1H24 — Sector Weakness Deepens

<ul><li>While Rakon (RAK) has previously said it expects customer inventory levels to normalise by the end of FY24 (to March 2024), our analysis of recent updates from listed telecoms infrastructure companies suggests challenging trading conditions persist and a recovery could take longer.</li><li>​​​​​​​On 17 July 2023, RAK said that a temporary slowdown in the telecoms sector meant up to NZ$10m in downside risk to its FY24 underlying EBITDA guidance range of NZ$24m–NZ$36m.</li><li>The temporary slowdown was, 'driven by a more conservative stance from the global mobile network operators for FY24', leading to a slower drawdown of stockpiled inventory amongst RAK's key telecoms infrastructure customers. </li></ul>

While Rakon (RAK) has previously said it expects customer inventory levels to normalise by the end of FY24 (to March 2024), our analysis of recent updates from listed telecoms infrastructure companies suggests challenging trading conditions persist and a recovery could take longer.​​​​​​​On 17 July 2023, RAK said that a temporary slowdown in the telecoms sector meant up to NZ$10m in downside risk to its FY24 underlying EBITDA guidance range of NZ$24m–NZ$36m.The temporary slowdown was, 'driven by a more conservative stance from the global mobile network operators for FY24', leading to a slower drawdown of stockpiled inventory amongst RAK's key telecoms infrastructure customers. 

Rakon Limited - Telecoms Weakness Persists

New Zealand

Rakon Ltd. manufactures frequency control products.  The Company produces crystal and oscillator products for global positioning, wireless, networking, cellular, telecommunications, radio, and microwave products.

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Rakon Ltd (RAK NZ)

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and...

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited - US Liberation Day Tariffs Impact

Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs will impact Rakon's US operations, affecting about 1%-2% of total revenue but remain manageable due to high...

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited- 1H24 — Sector Weakness Deepens

Rakon (RAK) reported a subdued 1H24 with cyclicality evident as its Positioning and Telecommunications revenues slowed considerably.

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited - Telecoms Weakness Persists

On 17 July 2023, RAK said that a temporary slowdown in the telecoms sector meant up to NZ$10m in downside risk to its FY24 underlying EBITDA...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and...

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited - US Liberation Day Tariffs Impact

Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs will impact Rakon's US operations, affecting about 1%-2% of total revenue but remain manageable due to high...

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited - NZ1.70 Per Share Offer Received

Rakon (RAK) announced it has received a non-binding, indicative proposal from a ‘credible industry player’ to purchase 100% of the company in an...

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited- 1H24 — Sector Weakness Deepens

Rakon (RAK) reported a subdued 1H24 with cyclicality evident as its Positioning and Telecommunications revenues slowed considerably.

Forsyth Barr

Rakon Limited - Telecoms Weakness Persists

On 17 July 2023, RAK said that a temporary slowdown in the telecoms sector meant up to NZ$10m in downside risk to its FY24 underlying EBITDA...

Forsyth Barr