Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>UST yields rose on Friday, in a continuation of Thursday’s increase following the weak 30Y notes auction.</li>
<li>In addition, there were no macro catalysts, ahead of Tuesday’s CPI data release (which may alter market expectations for the rate cuts currently priced in).</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 3.76%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 3 bps at 4.28%. </li>
</ul>


UST yields rose on Friday, in a continuation of Thursday’s increase following the weak 30Y notes auction.
In addition, there were no macro catalysts, ahead of Tuesday’s CPI data release (which may alter market expectations for the rate cuts currently priced in).
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 3.76%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 3 bps at 4.28%. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6597:1" rel="noopener">Melco Holdings (6676 JP)</a> chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/base-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28353:1" rel="noopener">BASE Inc (4477 JP)</a> in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.</li>
<li>He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary. </li>
<li>This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.</li>
</ul>



Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary. 
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.


Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) - Interesting Situation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will become the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> after the placement.</li>
<li>There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).

Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>As short-term rates rise, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Japan Post - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silicon-integrated-systems" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7244:1" rel="noopener">Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


As short-term rates rise, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s perceived superior fundamentals may be leading to a short squeeze on the stock versus Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).
Preceding my comments on Japan Post - and Silicon Integrated Systems (2363 TT) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is "Cheap"

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Rakuten Group, Nickel Industries</li>
<li>UST yields declined for a third straight day, albeit there were few macro catalysts. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST declined 3 bps each to 3.83% and 4.35%, respectively. Equities were mixed, as tech stocks retreated ahead of their earnings releases next week.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,310, while the Nasdaq declined 0.4% to 20,893.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Rakuten Group, Nickel Industries
UST yields declined for a third straight day, albeit there were few macro catalysts. The yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST declined 3 bps each to 3.83% and 4.35%, respectively. Equities were mixed, as tech stocks retreated ahead of their earnings releases next week.
The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.1% to 6,310, while the Nasdaq declined 0.4% to 20,893.


Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

UST yields rose on Friday, in a continuation of Thursday’s increase following the weak 30Y notes auction. In addition, there were no macro...

Lucror Analytics

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) - Interesting Situation

Maki-san launched his tender at ¥400 on 7 May, 7 weeks after I wrote this as a sell at ¥496. The shares were higher. They came down. The company...

Travis Lundy

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) Is "Cheap"

As rates go up, Investors may simply prefer to get exposure directly with JPB; and this may be contributing to a short squeeze on JPB's stock. I'd...

David Blennerhassett

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Water Affairs, Rakuten Group, Nickel...

Lucror Analytics

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