Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">
The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this report, we highlight numerous major potential winners and discuss some of the most important factors impacting the OTT sector in Asia. There are three crucial trends that will impact the Asian OTT sector:
<ul>
<li>A surging growth of 5G services</li>
<li>Increased consolidations and partnerships especially among the global OTTs and local content providers/OTTs</li>
<li>Greater spending on higher quality contents in efforts to improve consumer retention</li>
</ul>
The main purpose of this report is as follows:
<ul>
<li>Identify the major players (both public &amp; private) in the OTT sector in Asia</li>
<li>Specify the key trends driving the Asian OTT industry</li>
<li>Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian OTT industry</li>
</ul>
</div>


The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this report, we highlight numerous major potential winners and discuss some of the most important factors impacting the OTT sector in Asia. There are three crucial trends that will impact the Asian OTT sector:

A surging growth of 5G services
Increased consolidations and partnerships especially among the global OTTs and local content providers/OTTs
Greater spending on higher quality contents in efforts to improve consumer retention

The main purpose of this report is as follows:

Identify the major players (both public &amp; private) in the OTT sector in Asia
Specify the key trends driving the Asian OTT industry
Provide an initial overview of the key companies in the Asian OTT industry



Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

KDDI will announce industry-low pricing tomorrow with a new plan for 20GB/month data at ¥2,480/month, which is ¥500 cheaper (-17%) than plans announced by NTT DoCoMo and Softbank last month (and who will likely tweak their plans to match). For the industry overall, this clearly means modestly steeper erosion for mobile service revenue in FY21 and beyond but the good news is KDDI’s announcement should draw a line under regulatory-driven pricing pressure. It is worse news for newcomer Rakuten which has gone from a disruptive price leader in April last year to behind the curve nine months later. News this morning that a Rakuten Mobile network employee has been arrested for trade secret theft does not help.

KDDI will announce industry-low pricing tomorrow with a new plan for 20GB/month data at ¥2,480/month, which is ¥500 cheaper (-17%) than plans announced by NTT DoCoMo and Softbank last month (and who will likely tweak their plans to match). For the industry overall, this clearly means modestly steeper erosion for mobile service revenue in FY21 and beyond but the good news is KDDI’s announcement should draw a line under regulatory-driven pricing pressure. It is worse news for newcomer Rakuten which has gone from a disruptive price leader in April last year to behind the curve nine months later. News this morning that a Rakuten Mobile network employee has been arrested for trade secret theft does not help.

Japan Telecom Sector - KDDI Response to DoCoMo Pricing Increases the Pressure on Rakuten

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Nissan Motor, Sony Financial, Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting, Resonac, Orix, Rakuten, Kioxia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Nissan Motor, Sony Financial, Mitsui Mining &amp; Smelting, Resonac, Orix, Rakuten, Kioxia.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jun): Nissan Motor, Sony Financial, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Orix

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Japan may be one of the top three luxury markets in the world but luxury e-commerce is poorly evolved, with much of the focus still on flagships, boutiques and department stores.While Rakuten opened its own luxury section last month, a new dedicated luxury platform, Milleporte, which is backed by Goldman Sachs and Itochu Corp, has just launched with the promise to offer both merchants and customers a true luxury experience.In marked contrast to the busier online fashion pages of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>’s new luxury store, where the focus remains on the platform-as-brand at the expense of the merchant, Milleporte strips away the store front to allow customers to focus on the luxury brands themselves.The site is a direct challenge to both Zozo and Rakuten.

Japan may be one of the top three luxury markets in the world but luxury e-commerce is poorly evolved, with much of the focus still on flagships, boutiques and department stores.While Rakuten opened its own luxury section last month, a new dedicated luxury platform, Milleporte, which is backed by Goldman Sachs and Itochu Corp, has just launched with the promise to offer both merchants and customers a true luxury experience.In marked contrast to the busier online fashion pages of ZOZO Inc (3092 JP) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)’s new luxury store, where the focus remains on the platform-as-brand at the expense of the merchant, Milleporte strips away the store front to allow customers to focus on the luxury brands themselves.The site is a direct challenge to both Zozo and Rakuten.

Milleporte Counters Rakuten and Zozo on Luxury Platform

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/891/original/2020-10-01_13-26-50.png?1601526452" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162891"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics</div>
SHORT TENURE - Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years - Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 - the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA - Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe's premiership. The continuity offered by Suga's elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan's economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.
<hr>
In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA's BACKGROUND &amp; POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence &amp; Foreign Policy
Economic Policy
Administrative Reform
The Digital Agency
Telecommunications Services
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation &amp; Regional Bank Reform
SME restructuring
Carbon Neutrality &amp; A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS
<hr>
WHAT'S ORIGINAL? - This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga's policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.  
<hr>
<blockquote class="">
"Self-help, mutual help, public help, and "kizuna" (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people's expectations by giving birth to a "Cabinet that works for the People," which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
<h3>Statement of the Prime Minister</h3>
September 16th, 2020
</blockquote>


Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics
SHORT TENURE - Since 1979 the average prime ministerial tenure in Japan has been 750 days. Excluding the three longest-serving Prime Ministers of the last forty years - Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2 - the average is 494 days. The equity market has favoured long-serving Liberal Democratic Party government (marked in light green above) and disliked periods of coalition or opposition (野党 yatō) government and also tenures of less than eighteen months.
PM SUGA - Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide succeeded former Prime Minister Abe on 16th September the latter having stepped down for health reasons. Suga had served as Chief Cabinet Secretary (内閣官房長官, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan) for all of Abe's premiership. The continuity offered by Suga's elevation provides Japan with the prospect of an extended period of political stability. From his policy statements made during the brief prime-ministerial election campaign, Suga has bold aims for challenging Japan's economic and social ills. Given his previous role and mastery of the balance between political necessities and bureaucratic realities, the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy and stock market.

In the DETAIL below, we shall cover the following topics:-
I: SUGA's BACKGROUND &amp; POLITICAL CAREER
II: POLICY PRIORITIES
Defence &amp; Foreign Policy
Economic Policy
Administrative Reform
The Digital Agency
Telecommunications Services
Birth-rate and Fertility Treatment
Regional Revitalisation &amp; Regional Bank Reform
SME restructuring
Carbon Neutrality &amp; A Nuclear Renaissance
III: SUGA STOCKS RECOMMENDATIONS

WHAT'S ORIGINAL? - This Insight reviews the implications of PM Suga's policy platform for specific sectors and stocks in the Japanse equity market and concludes with five long and five short recommendations for large-cap growth and value-orientated portfolios.  


"Self-help, mutual help, public help, and "kizuna" (bonds) is our vision for society. With that in mind, we firmly believe, overcoming various issues, such as regional revitalization and the shrinking population, as well as the declining birth-rate and aging society, will create dynamism in Japan. To this end, we will meet the people's expectations by giving birth to a "Cabinet that works for the People," which gives its all to advance regulatory reforms without being constrained by the vested interests of the stakeholders, tearing down bureaucratic sectionalism and the notorious habit of following past precedents.
Statement of the Prime Minister
September 16th, 2020


🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Asian OTT Wars

The Asian OTT sector is one of the most attractive industries to be in the next five years. In this Smartkarma Original, we discuss some of the...

Douglas Kim

Japan Telecom Sector - KDDI Response to DoCoMo Pricing Increases the Pressure on Rakuten

New data pricing from KDDI undercuts NTT/Softbank, which is bad for FY21 sales but eases regulatory worries. It is definitely bad news for Rakuten...

Kirk Boodry

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jun): Nissan Motor, Sony Financial, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Orix

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Nissan Motor, Sony Financial, Mitsui Mining & Smelting, Resonac,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Milleporte Counters Rakuten and Zozo on Luxury Platform

Japan is the 3rd biggest luxury market but has no dedicated luxury online platform. Until now. Rakuten launched last month a new mall just launched...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan in the Suga Era - Policy Priorities & 'Suga Stocks'

We believe the Suga era could be as impactful as those of Nakasone, Koizumi and Abe 2. We view such an outcome as bullish for the Japanese economy...

Campbell Gunn

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