Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

With Japanese shoppers still reluctant to visit stores too often, more are turning to online food shopping.This trend was already building gradually before the pandemic, but demand has grown massively in the past nine months and large and small food retailers alike are rushing to add more online capacity.The winners will be the ones able to solve the last mile problem and add some customer-centric innovations. The sector is currently led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a> in its partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s </a>supermarket affiliate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1743:1" rel="noopener">Life Corp (8194 JP).</a> Others like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a> are also investing for the long-term and even <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> is having another go and we review the current status of all the main players below the fold.What is certain is that, with online penetration of the food retail sector still below 3%, there is plenty of share to mop up for all concerned.

With Japanese shoppers still reluctant to visit stores too often, more are turning to online food shopping.This trend was already building gradually before the pandemic, but demand has grown massively in the past nine months and large and small food retailers alike are rushing to add more online capacity.The winners will be the ones able to solve the last mile problem and add some customer-centric innovations. The sector is currently led by Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US) in its partnership with Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)'s supermarket affiliate, Life Corp (8194 JP). Others like Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) and Rakuten Inc (4755 JP) are also investing for the long-term and even Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) is having another go and we review the current status of all the main players below the fold.What is certain is that, with online penetration of the food retail sector still below 3%, there is plenty of share to mop up for all concerned.

Online Food Demand Brings New Ideas and Innovations

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

Regulatory concerns in Japan have returned as the new Prime Minister has made mobile pricing a key talking point. And it now appears likely that Softbank will carve out a new 20-30GB data tier at ¥5,000/month to address that. We expect that DoCoMo and KDDI (to a lesser degree) will have to follow. NTT is the most exposed as DoCoMo was late to the game in moving up to offering extra-large data bundles and its Gigaho 30GB plan is priced at ¥7,150/month. On the surface, this move gives the Prime Minister a win and should ease regulatory pressure and whilst mobile revenue erosion will accelerate, tiered pricing should help manage the downside. The main issue heading into reporting season is how much of a return to customers this is and whether the political and regulatory pressure will ease.

Regulatory concerns in Japan have returned as the new Prime Minister has made mobile pricing a key talking point. And it now appears likely that Softbank will carve out a new 20-30GB data tier at ¥5,000/month to address that. We expect that DoCoMo and KDDI (to a lesser degree) will have to follow. NTT is the most exposed as DoCoMo was late to the game in moving up to offering extra-large data bundles and its Gigaho 30GB plan is priced at ¥7,150/month. On the surface, this move gives the Prime Minister a win and should ease regulatory pressure and whilst mobile revenue erosion will accelerate, tiered pricing should help manage the downside. The main issue heading into reporting season is how much of a return to customers this is and whether the political and regulatory pressure will ease. 

Japan Telecom Sector: Softbank Moves First on Pricing

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/156/777/original/83v838d83t83b815b838b97p20188dc590v2028626x80029.jpg?1599082833" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="156777"></figure>Source: <a href="http://www.sugayoshihide.gr.jp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">http://www.sugayoshihide.gr.jp/</a>
</div>PM SUGA - In this Insight, we offer some thoughts on what appears to be the foregone conclusion that current Chief Cabinet Secretary and Abe's right hand for the last eight years, Suga Yoshihide, will be next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister of Japan.Abe Shinzo has done well during his tenure to divide and rule of the various LPD factional interest and has sought to (over-)promote allies and acolytes often those who supported his platform of constitutional reform. Mostly due to lack of political acumen, none of these 'friends-of-Shinzo' has emerged as a potential successor. Abe most fervent opponent within the LDP, Ishiba Shigeru, has been effectively sidelined and the rules for the upcoming election will be written to exclude his power base within the local LDP chapters.   Within the Cabinet, the most charismatic figures are Deputy PM Aso Taro (79-years old- not standing) and Defense Minister Kono Taro (57 years old-possibly standing). The latter is in the former's faction, and Aso has yet to content to Kono's candidature.<div class="content-highlight">Assuming the Suga Premiership commences on September 14th, the short-run market implications are benign; however, we believe that Suga's influence and control over policymaking could have more positive longer-term implications for Japan than anything achieved under 'Abenomics'.</div>


Source: http://www.sugayoshihide.gr.jp/
PM SUGA - In this Insight, we offer some thoughts on what appears to be the foregone conclusion that current Chief Cabinet Secretary and Abe's right hand for the last eight years, Suga Yoshihide, will be next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister of Japan.Abe Shinzo has done well during his tenure to divide and rule of the various LPD factional interest and has sought to (over-)promote allies and acolytes often those who supported his platform of constitutional reform. Mostly due to lack of political acumen, none of these 'friends-of-Shinzo' has emerged as a potential successor. Abe most fervent opponent within the LDP, Ishiba Shigeru, has been effectively sidelined and the rules for the upcoming election will be written to exclude his power base within the local LDP chapters.   Within the Cabinet, the most charismatic figures are Deputy PM Aso Taro (79-years old- not standing) and Defense Minister Kono Taro (57 years old-possibly standing). The latter is in the former's faction, and Aso has yet to content to Kono's candidature.Assuming the Suga Premiership commences on September 14th, the short-run market implications are benign; however, we believe that Suga's influence and control over policymaking could have more positive longer-term implications for Japan than anything achieved under 'Abenomics'.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Some Thoughts on Suga Yoshihide as PM

In June, the government’s rebate scheme that simultaneously aimed to reduce the burden of its October 2019 tax increase while also promoting cashless payments, came to an end. But there’s more to come.The initial scheme will be replaced in September by an entirely new one, this time to promote the My Number citizen registration system alongside, again, cashless payments.The new scheme requires consumers to choose one provider only. This will push payment providers to compete with ever more ferocity and, by this time next year, we are likely to see just one or two winners and a whole bunch of losers.

In June, the government’s rebate scheme that simultaneously aimed to reduce the burden of its October 2019 tax increase while also promoting cashless payments, came to an end. But there’s more to come.The initial scheme will be replaced in September by an entirely new one, this time to promote the My Number citizen registration system alongside, again, cashless payments.The new scheme requires consumers to choose one provider only. This will push payment providers to compete with ever more ferocity and, by this time next year, we are likely to see just one or two winners and a whole bunch of losers.

Government Fuels Japan Cashless Payments War

Japan

Rakuten Group, Inc. provides Internet services. The Company offers Internet finance services which including "Rakuten Card" and "Rakuten Bank". Rakuten Group also provides digital content services including electronic book services.

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Rakuten (4755 JP)

Online Food Demand Brings New Ideas and Innovations

E-commerce has less than 3% share of food retailing in Japan but this is about to change and fast. Amazon/Life is leading but Aeon, Rakuten and...

Michael Causton

Japan Telecom Sector: Softbank Moves First on Pricing

Softbank's response to regulatory pressure should be enough if sector follows suit. NTT is most exposed after announcing a premium bid for DoCoMo

Kirk Boodry

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Some Thoughts on Suga Yoshihide as PM

With only one results and two revisions yesterday this update will be brief.

Campbell Gunn

Government Fuels Japan Cashless Payments War

In June, the government’s rebate scheme that simultaneously aimed to reduce the burden of its October 2019 tax increase while also promoting...

Michael Causton

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