Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Two stock remains, 12 stocks added into portfolio</li>
<li>Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 200% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 77%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology
Portfolio changes: Two stock remains, 12 stocks added into portfolio
Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total return of 200% versus the MSCI Asia ex Japan of 77%


<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.</li>
<li>The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   </li>
<li>UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  </li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is slightly affected by earthquakes, but production can resume in late 1Q25.
The UMC 12nm project could be in vain if Intel collaborates with TSMC or if TSMC takes over Intel's foundry service.   
UMC's annual revenue could see a -5% year-over-year growth in 2025, but there may be a few percentages increase in wafer shipments.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? </li>
<li>TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. </li>
</ul>


PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus &amp; Dell
Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix &amp; Micron's HBM DRAM Growth? 
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Taiwan

Realtek Semiconductor Corp. designs, tests, and distributes integrated circuits which are used in consumer electronics, computer systems and peripherals, and communication network hardware.  The Company also provides technical counseling and systems software services.

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Realtek Semiconductor (2379 TT)

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 48

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total...

A. Stotz Investment Research

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

The Stocks to Own in Asia – Vol. 48

We highlight 14 stocks in Asia that look interesting to us based on our FVMR methodology. Since its inception, it has generated a before-fee total...

A. Stotz Investment Research

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 1Q25 Results Could Be Upbeat, but 2Q25 Could Be a Bit Downside.

​Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...

Patrick Liao

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

Also: Performance of Snapdragon, AMD, and Intel in the PC monitor market; potential challenges for SK Hynix and Micron in the memory monitor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Earthquakes impact 1Q25 outlook can be resumed, UMC's 12nm project at risk with Intel-TSMC collaboration, UMC's revenue may decrease but wafer...