IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/musgrave-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2564:1" rel="noopener">Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU)</a> has recommended a cash and scrip off-market takeover offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> at 1 RMS share for every 4.21 MGV shares + A$0.04 cash.</li>
<li>RMS’ offer is attractive compared to adjusted exchange ratios and peer multiples. The offer, which has a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, has secured commitments from shareholders representing 12.13% of shares.</li>
<li>At the last close, RMS’ offer is 14.9% higher than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>’s rival scrip off-market takeover offer of 1 WGX share for every 5.37 MGV shares.</li>
</ul>



Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU) has recommended a cash and scrip off-market takeover offer from Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) at 1 RMS share for every 4.21 MGV shares + A$0.04 cash.
RMS’ offer is attractive compared to adjusted exchange ratios and peer multiples. The offer, which has a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition, has secured commitments from shareholders representing 12.13% of shares.
At the last close, RMS’ offer is 14.9% higher than Westgold Resources (WGX AU)’s rival scrip off-market takeover offer of 1 WGX share for every 5.37 MGV shares.


Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU): Ramelius’ Offer Edges past Westgold’s Offer

Golden Energy and Resources / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. </li>
<li>The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.</li>
<li>Notably, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. </li>
</ul>


The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. 
The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.
Notably, Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

<ul>
<li>A battle is brewing between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silver-lake-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6529:1" rel="noopener">Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/st-barbara-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3764:1" rel="noopener">St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)</a>’s Leonora assets. SLR's revised proposal addresses some Board's concerns.</li>
<li>SLR’s revised offer which shortens the completion timeline, is fully funded and higher than GMD’s offer, pressures the Board to engage to create a bidding war. </li>
<li>Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and investment portfolio.    </li>
</ul>


A battle is brewing between Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) and Silver Lake Resources (SLR AU) for St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)’s Leonora assets. SLR's revised proposal addresses some Board's concerns.
SLR’s revised offer which shortens the completion timeline, is fully funded and higher than GMD’s offer, pressures the Board to engage to create a bidding war. 
Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and investment portfolio.    


St Barbara (SBM AU): Silver Lake and Genesis Minerals Brewing Battle Creates Option Value

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a>/DSS shareholders have approved the sale of DSS' 77.49% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> to the Widjaja family. </li>
<li>No objection has also been received from the OJK and IDX. The make-for-break condition is the GEAR shareholder approval of the distribution resolution, which DSS will abstain from voting on. </li>
<li>Minorities and SIAS rightly claim that the revised offer remains light. A bump to the offer, particularly to the delisting offer price is S$0.181, is required for a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)/DSS shareholders have approved the sale of DSS' 77.49% stake in Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) to the Widjaja family. 
No objection has also been received from the OJK and IDX. The make-for-break condition is the GEAR shareholder approval of the distribution resolution, which DSS will abstain from voting on. 
Minorities and SIAS rightly claim that the revised offer remains light. A bump to the offer, particularly to the delisting offer price is S$0.181, is required for a done deal. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Two Conditions Satisfied, Now for the Hard Part

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD46.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon, Gold Road Resour, Brambles.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 7th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD46.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon, Gold Road Resour, Brambles.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 7th): Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon

Australia

Regis Resources Ltd. is a mineral exploration and production company. The Company mines for gold, nickel, and copper.

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Regis Resources (RRL AU)

Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU): Ramelius’ Offer Edges past Westgold’s Offer

RMS' takeover offer is attractive and is currently 14.9% higher than WGX’s rival takeover offer. The wide value gap could prove challenging for WGX...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Minorities are in a strong position as DSS is required to abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the...

Arun George

St Barbara (SBM AU): Silver Lake and Genesis Minerals Brewing Battle Creates Option Value

Irrespective of the winning bidder, SBM is attractive, and the shares offer a free option on realising value from its remaining assets and...

Arun George

Golden Energy (GER SP): Two Conditions Satisfied, Now for the Hard Part

Two conditions were satisfied but the make-for-break condition is the approval of the distribution resolution. The offer remains light vs GEAR's...

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 7th): Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Qube Holdings, Woodside Energy, Aurizon, Gold Road...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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