Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.</li><li>The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   </li><li>In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  </li></ul>

It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,860/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. </li><li>Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit costs (adjusted for contingent provisions)</li><li>Despite a 54bps sequential reduction in the stressed pool (restructured portfolio at 0.8%, BB &amp; below portfolio at 1.9%), ICICIBC’s move to build up its contingent provisioning (+10bps) appears counter-intuitive and raises questions on the possibility of emerging risk markers in the portfolio</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Reliance Industries: Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,860/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses; (2) continued EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams; and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses. Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit costs (adjusted for contingent provisions)Despite a 54bps sequential reduction in the stressed pool (restructured portfolio at 0.8%, BB &amp; below portfolio at 1.9%), ICICIBC’s move to build up its contingent provisioning (+10bps) appears counter-intuitive and raises questions on the possibility of emerging risk markers in the portfolioContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Persistent Systems

<div><div><div><ul><li>Imposition of a SAED of INR 6/ltr (USD 12/bbl) on exports of petrol and ATF <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">and INR 13/ltr (USD 27/bbl) on exports of diesel.</span></li></ul></div></div><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Levy of a SAED of INR 23,250/mt (USD 40/bbl) on domestically produced <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">crude oil. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">However, no cess will be imposed on the quantity of crude that is </span><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">produced in excess of FY22 production.</span></li></ul></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Imposition of a SAED of INR 6/ltr (USD 12/bbl) on exports of petrol and ATF and INR 13/ltr (USD 27/bbl) on exports of diesel.Levy of a SAED of INR 23,250/mt (USD 40/bbl) on domestically produced crude oil. However, no cess will be imposed on the quantity of crude that is produced in excess of FY22 production.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil and Gas Sector - Subsidy Overhang to Reduce

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,515/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses, (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams, and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses</li><li>RIL’s consolidated EBITDA at INR 410bn (+32% YoY, +8% QoQ, HSIE: INR 385bn) and APAT at INR 174bn (+27% YoY, +9% QoQ) came in above our estimates, supported by better-than-expected performance from its energy businesses.</li><li>We use EV/EBITDA to value downstream at Mar-25E EV/e, retail on peer benchmarked EV/e and E&amp;P and Jio on DCF.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our ADD rating on Reliance Industries (RIL) with a price target of INR 2,515/sh is premised on (1) recovery in the O2C businesses, (2) EBITDA growth in the digital business, driven by improvement in ARPU, subscriber addition, and new revenue streams, and (3) potential for further value unlocking in the digital and retail businessesRIL’s consolidated EBITDA at INR 410bn (+32% YoY, +8% QoQ, HSIE: INR 385bn) and APAT at INR 174bn (+27% YoY, +9% QoQ) came in above our estimates, supported by better-than-expected performance from its energy businesses.We use EV/EBITDA to value downstream at Mar-25E EV/e, retail on peer benchmarked EV/e and E&amp;P and Jio on DCF.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Reliance Industries (Q2FY24): Robust Earnings from Energy Businesses. Maintain ADD

India

Reliance Industries is an Indian multinational conglomerate with diverse businesses including energy, petrochemicals, oil and gas exploration, telecommunications (Jio), and retail (Reliance Retail). The company is a major producer of petroleum products and a significant player in digital services and consumer goods. Reliance Industries is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Reliance Industries (RELIANCE IN)

Head Fakes

The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally...

Untying The Gordian Knot

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank

Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Persistent Systems

Gross slippages, at 2.9%, were elevated on account of the KCC portfolio, but were offset by higher recoveries, reflecting in negligible credit...

HDFC Securities

Indian Oil and Gas Sector - Subsidy Overhang to Reduce

Reliance Industries (RIL), ONGC and Oil India (OIL) stocks declined 7-15% on 1st Jul-22 as investors took a dim view of the new levies applied on...

HDFC Securities

Reliance Industries (Q2FY24): Robust Earnings from Energy Businesses. Maintain ADD

RIL’s consolidated EBITDA at INR 410bn (+32% YoY, +8% QoQ, HSIE: INR 385bn) and APAT at INR 174bn (+27% YoY, +9% QoQ) came in above our estimates

HDFC Securities

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