HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. </li>
<li>Our view is that this is a temporary rebound after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than a complete reversal.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.</li>
<li>In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.</li>
</ul>


Last week, we saw some rebounds in the healthcare sector, and many investors begin to believe that a complete reversal is imminent. 
Our view is that this is a temporary rebound after continuous pull-back due to the broken logic, rather than a complete reversal.We recommend investors to see the rebound rationally.
In terms of the future direction of stock price, we analyze it based on three scenarios.


The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

<ul>
<li>Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.</li>
<li>The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.</li>
<li>In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.</li>
</ul>


Based on our analysis, the growth rate of China's drug spending is linked to GDP, and it would not be a high growth rate, but a stable growth rate.
The logic behind China and US biotech companies is different. To some extent, the lower the domestic biotech’s share price, the greater the risk.
In the current policy environment, the risks of VBP on anesthetics could be low because of their high barriers, strict control and potential social risks.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

<ul>
<li>The 2021 national medical insurance negotiation released results on December 3.</li>
<li>If the COVID virus continues to mutate in a more transmissible direction, the logic of related companies would change.</li>
<li>For those new IPOs that fell on debut, the current "cold winter" is a rational return of the crazy healthcare investment capital market since 2019.</li>
</ul>


The 2021 national medical insurance negotiation released results on December 3.
If the COVID virus continues to mutate in a more transmissible direction, the logic of related companies would change.
For those new IPOs that fell on debut, the current "cold winter" is a rational return of the crazy healthcare investment capital market since 2019.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.3)-2021 Insurance Negotiation Results,new COVID Virus,a Rational Return

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The national medical insurance negotiation is coming soon.</li>
<li>Last Friday, a new document about the VBP on insulin was released, and the bidding would start on November 26.</li>
<li>At some point next year, we may see some slowdown in the growth of investment and financing transmitted from the industry and primary market as well as a slowdown in the growth of CXO orders. </li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on new drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antengene-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29705:1" rel="noopener">Antengene (6996 HK)</a>Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.35%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.35% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure: Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The national medical insurance negotiation is coming soon.
Last Friday, a new document about the VBP on insulin was released, and the bidding would start on November 26.
At some point next year, we may see some slowdown in the growth of investment and financing transmitted from the industry and primary market as well as a slowdown in the growth of CXO orders. 
Company news:News about the updated progress on new drugs of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) and Antengene (6996 HK)Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.35%, while CSI 300 decreased 1.35% over the same period of time.Risk disclosure: Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.5) - Final Two Domestic Policy Risks, Outlook of China CXO Industry

Industry viewpoints:<ul>
<li>The National Health Care Security Administration pointed out that the volume-based purchase (VBP) of Chinese patent medicine will be carried out.</li>
<li>The market is quite concerned about the centralized procurement of medical equipment.</li>
<li>Regarding the centralized procurement of medical devices, how can investors clearly distinguish the information and be more rational about the companies involved? We summarized some conditions that can be used for reference.</li>
</ul>Company news:News about the updated progress on cooperation agreement and new drugs of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/remegen-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29191:1" rel="noopener">Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27760:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK).</a>Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.47%, while CSI 300 increased 0.5% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

Industry viewpoints:
The National Health Care Security Administration pointed out that the volume-based purchase (VBP) of Chinese patent medicine will be carried out.
The market is quite concerned about the centralized procurement of medical equipment.
Regarding the centralized procurement of medical devices, how can investors clearly distinguish the information and be more rational about the companies involved? We summarized some conditions that can be used for reference.
Company news:News about the updated progress on cooperation agreement and new drugs of Remegen Co Ltd (9995 HK), Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience Co. Ltd. (1877 HK) and Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK).Market review:Last week, stock price for healthcare sector in A share decreased 1.47%, while CSI 300 increased 0.5% over the same period of time. Risk disclosure:Policy risk, R&amp;D risk, Company risk and COVID-19 risk.

China

RemeGen is a China-based biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery, development, production, and commercialization of innovative biological drugs. The company focuses on therapeutic antibody drugs, including antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), antibody fusion proteins, monoclonal antibodies, and bispecific antibodies, for major diseases such as autoimmune disorders, oncology, and ophthalmology. Key products include Telitacicept (RC18) and Disitamab Vedotin (RC48). RemeGen was co-founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Yantai, Shandong Province, China.

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RemeGen (9995 HK)

The Insecure Rebound in Healthcare Sector and the Future Direction of Stock Price (2022)

The rebound in China healthcare sector last week was a temporary rebound rather than a complete reversal. In terms of future direction of stock...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Jan.7)-China's Drug Spending,Logic Behind China/US Biotech, Anesthetics VBP

The insight mainly analyzed the relationship of drug spending with GDP growth, different logic behind China/US biotech companies and related risks...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.3)-2021 Insurance Negotiation Results,new COVID Virus,a Rational Return

This article analyzed the 2021 national medical insurance negotiation results, the change in logic of valuation due to the new COVID virus, and a...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.5) - Final Two Domestic Policy Risks, Outlook of China CXO Industry

The insight mainly analyzed the final two domestic policy risks (the national medical insurance negotiation & the VBP on insulin) by the end of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.13)

The insight analyzed the VBP of Chinese patent medicine, market concerns on centralized procurement of medical equipment, and necessary conditions...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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