Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23</li>
<li>The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY</li>
<li>This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&amp;I and Other Loans To Non FI's</li>
</ul>


Commercial paper outstanding in the US issued by non-financials is at its highest levels in the most recent week, since at least early FY23
The growth rate of CP outstanding in the US, from companies that make stuff, not banks, is growing at 10% YoY
This is another indicator of relatively strong underlying economics in the US, like what we see with HFD for US banks with C&amp;I and Other Loans To Non FI's


US Banks & Economy - Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

<ul>
<li>In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. </li>
<li>Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.</li>
<li>Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April</li>
</ul>


In the last week of April, US banks saw USD22bn higher 'loans to non-depository financial institutions. Much of this will be C&amp;I through private credit. 
Total cash holdings moved down in the same week from USD3,240bn to USD3,072bn, marking a significant delta in risk aversion - toward risk, not away.
Deposits are still high at USD18,058bn which can move back into markets, where non-large time deposits appear to be doing this, over month of April


US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

<ul>
<li>The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit </li>
<li>This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders </li>
<li>The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health</li>
</ul>


The most recent Fed Financial Stability Report released on 25 April shows that Other Lending to FI's for banks includes Private Credit 
This means that the C&amp;I loan category of banks is partly diluted, where banks are providing this lending via private lenders 
The implications are highly positive to the understanding of underlying credit demand, economic strength, and bank health


US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

<ul>
<li>A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed</li>
<li>Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. </li>
<li>The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. </li>
</ul>


A commercial &amp; industrial (C&amp;I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed
Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&amp;I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ. 
The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ. 


US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

United States

Remitly Global Inc provides financial services. The Company offers online money transer and payment solutions. Remitly Global serves customers worldwide.

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Remitly Global (RELY US)

US Banks & Economy - Commercial Paper Outstanding in Recent Week, Is Highest of Any Week in Series

US commercial paper outstanding issued by non-financials is at highest level in most recent week since Fed's time series, growth is 10% YoY, this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Last Week of April Saw $22bn Loan Rise, With Cash Down $168bn

Weekly data from US banks shows very strong rise in loans to other FIs and an exceptionally strong decline in total cash assets. View this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Granular Data in Fed Report, Shows Private Credit Growth Is Strong

There is granular data from Fed showing that loans to nonbank FI's will include CLOs and private credit. This means that C&I lending is stronger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

Off balance sheet data for US banks shows C&I loan commitments down a lot in 4Q24, the most recent comparable period was in early FY20. This can be...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

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