New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Retailers are facing a challenging outlook</li><li>We expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023</li><li>In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.</li></ul>

Retailers are facing a challenging outlookWe expect to see signs of consumers cutting back on non-essential spend by mid-2023In this Santa's Stocking report, we include a budget-friendly gift guide for the whole family which works for both last-minute Christmas presents, or gift ideas for the coming year.

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Restaurant Brands' (RBD) 3Q22 trading update continued to show robust sales performance helped by positive currency benefits.</li><li>Same store sales (SSS) growth remains positive in all regions except California, which continues to cycle US Government stimulus payments in the prior period.</li><li>We raise our FY22 revenue forecasts to reflect stronger than expected year-to-date sales growth, but higher input costs are the key risk — particularly in the North American markets where RBD does not control the supply chain.</li></ul>

Restaurant Brands' (RBD) 3Q22 trading update continued to show robust sales performance helped by positive currency benefits.Same store sales (SSS) growth remains positive in all regions except California, which continues to cycle US Government stimulus payments in the prior period.We raise our FY22 revenue forecasts to reflect stronger than expected year-to-date sales growth, but higher input costs are the key risk — particularly in the North American markets where RBD does not control the supply chain.

Restaurant Brands NZ: 3Q22 — Sales Takeaway

<ul><li>Restaurant Brands (RBD) has reported a robust 3Q22 update, which showed signs of strong revenue momentum heading into 2H22 across most geographies (quarter on quarter results were muddied by comparison against a low COVID-impacted 3H21)</li><li>Based on our FY22 revenue forecast of NZ$1.23b (which is at the midpoint of consensus), we estimate an undemanding implied 4Q22 revenue of ~NZ$323m</li><li>This looks reasonable in light of (1) 3Q22 revenue of NZ$322m, and (2) favourable NZD currency movements, particularly for the US businesses</li></ul>

Restaurant Brands (RBD) has reported a robust 3Q22 update, which showed signs of strong revenue momentum heading into 2H22 across most geographies (quarter on quarter results were muddied by comparison against a low COVID-impacted 3H21)Based on our FY22 revenue forecast of NZ$1.23b (which is at the midpoint of consensus), we estimate an undemanding implied 4Q22 revenue of ~NZ$323mThis looks reasonable in light of (1) 3Q22 revenue of NZ$322m, and (2) favourable NZD currency movements, particularly for the US businesses

Restaurant Brands (RBD): 3Q22 Update – Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Restaurant Brands' (RBD) 1H22 result was in line with our estimates and guidance provided in July 2022, but highlighted that cost pressures continue to be the key headwind with few signs of abating</li><li>Sales growth remains dependent on new store openings and acquisitions, with +19 stores expected to be opened in FY22</li><li>We remain cognisant that RBD's store roll-out pipeline may be impacted by building supply and labour shortages, particularly in New Zealand</li></ul>

Restaurant Brands' (RBD) 1H22 result was in line with our estimates and guidance provided in July 2022, but highlighted that cost pressures continue to be the key headwind with few signs of abatingSales growth remains dependent on new store openings and acquisitions, with +19 stores expected to be opened in FY22We remain cognisant that RBD's store roll-out pipeline may be impacted by building supply and labour shortages, particularly in New Zealand

Restaurant Brands: NZ 1H22 — Colonel Cost Marches On

<ul><li>Restaurant Brands (RBD) has reported a weaker 1H22 result relative to the prior year, but in line with guidance provided at the 2Q update in July</li><li>RBD expects margins and cost inflation will stabilise over the second half of FY22</li><li>RBD has provided updated guidance for FY22 of NZ$32-NZ$37m</li></ul>

Restaurant Brands (RBD) has reported a weaker 1H22 result relative to the prior year, but in line with guidance provided at the 2Q update in JulyRBD expects margins and cost inflation will stabilise over the second half of FY22RBD has provided updated guidance for FY22 of NZ$32-NZ$37m

Restaurant Brands (RBD): 1H22 Result – Initial Impressions

New Zealand

Restaurant Brands New Zealand Limited operates fast food restaurant chains in New Zealand & Australia. The Company operates close to 300 stores which operate under the KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks restaurant names.

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Restaurant Brands NZ (RBD NZ)

Retail Sector: Santa's Stocking: What's in Store for Christmas?

Retailers are facing a challenging outlook - although consumer spending has been generally robust over the past 12 months, the double-edged sword...

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands NZ: 3Q22 — Sales Takeaway

Restaurant Brands' (RBD) 3Q22 trading update continued to show robust sales performance helped by positive currency benefits; We raise our FY22...

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands (RBD): 3Q22 Update – Initial Impressions

Restaurant Brands (RBD) has reported a robust 3Q22 update, which showed signs of strong revenue momentum heading into 2H22 across most geographies...

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands: NZ 1H22 — Colonel Cost Marches On

Restaurant Brands' (RBD) 1H22 result was in line with our estimates and guidance provided in July 2022, but highlighted that cost pressures...

Forsyth Barr

Restaurant Brands (RBD): 1H22 Result – Initial Impressions

Restaurant Brands (RBD) has reported a weaker 1H22 result relative to the prior year, but in line with guidance provided at the 2Q update in July

Forsyth Barr

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