Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/144/055/original/2020-07-03_06-20-43.png?1593724862" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="144055"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues fell by 8%, and operating income was 39% lower. Full-year net income was revised down by 48% relative to TTM, suggesting a grim second half.  If realised, this level of bottom-line profits would be the worst since 2008. More commentary on yesterday's announcements follows in the DETAIL section below.<div>DAILY STATS</div><hr><div>
10 Quarterly Results
<ul>
<li>
Results Score: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change:-2.6</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -13.0% Quarter YoY / -1.5% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt</li>
</ul>
</div><hr><div> 5 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.6</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsSCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues fell by 8%, and operating income was 39% lower. Full-year net income was revised down by 48% relative to TTM, suggesting a grim second half.  If realised, this level of bottom-line profits would be the worst since 2008. More commentary on yesterday's announcements follows in the DETAIL section below.DAILY STATS
10 Quarterly Results


Results Score: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 6 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-2.6

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.0% Quarter YoY / -1.5% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.2ppt

 5 Annual • 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 1 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.6


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are already predicting a completely new world in one way or another, but the reality is likely more prosaic.What is certain is that the Japanese consumer economy will recover and it is just a question of when.The most likely effect of the crisis is that it will catalyse a period of change already in process and which also happens to be one of the most dramatic and far-reaching seen so far in retail.But there is one trend that may well reverse as more businesses go under or contract, providing relief for many retailers: the labour shortage and rise in wages.The following offers an in-depth review of both the impact of the current crisis and implications as well as the long-term trends in Japanese retailing, providing insight into which sectors, formats and specific companies will win and lose in the next three years.For a short read, we provide the conclusions and winners and losers first.

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are already predicting a completely new world in one way or another, but the reality is likely more prosaic.What is certain is that the Japanese consumer economy will recover and it is just a question of when.The most likely effect of the crisis is that it will catalyse a period of change already in process and which also happens to be one of the most dramatic and far-reaching seen so far in retail.But there is one trend that may well reverse as more businesses go under or contract, providing relief for many retailers: the labour shortage and rise in wages.The following offers an in-depth review of both the impact of the current crisis and implications as well as the long-term trends in Japanese retailing, providing insight into which sectors, formats and specific companies will win and lose in the next three years.For a short read, we provide the conclusions and winners and losers first.

After Covid: The Future for Japanese Retail: Winners & Losers

Retailing in Japan is about to enter a period of unprecedented change – the biggest disruption in its history. The causes are threefold: population contraction, the labour shortage and e-commerce.
Most advanced markets face one or, at most, two of these pressures but Japan faces all three at the same time and, in terms of population and labour much sooner and more extremely than any other major country.
Retailers and brands in Japan are already beginning to respond and the next 10 years will see the emergence of a retail sector transformed by new solutions in productivity and efficiency.
Although e-commerce will take priority, physical shops will still have a place and in some ways be more relevant than before – and be a lot more profitable.
As well as this Insight on the causes and implications of these changes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-in-the-next-5-10-years" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we also have a separate Insight on the Winners &amp; Losers in retailing in the years to come</a>.

Retailing in Japan is about to enter a period of unprecedented change – the biggest disruption in its history. The causes are threefold: population contraction, the labour shortage and e-commerce.
Most advanced markets face one or, at most, two of these pressures but Japan faces all three at the same time and, in terms of population and labour much sooner and more extremely than any other major country.
Retailers and brands in Japan are already beginning to respond and the next 10 years will see the emergence of a retail sector transformed by new solutions in productivity and efficiency.
Although e-commerce will take priority, physical shops will still have a place and in some ways be more relevant than before – and be a lot more profitable.
As well as this Insight on the causes and implications of these changes, we also have a separate Insight on the Winners &amp; Losers in retailing in the years to come.

Japanese Retailing: The Big Disruption – and Opportunity – in the Next 5 Years

Japan

RETAIL PARTNERS CO., LTD. operates regional supermarket chain based in Yamaguchi Prefecture.  The Company also sells household utensils, appliances, and clothing.

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Retail Partners (8167 JP)

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 2nd July • Scrambled Eggs

SCRAMBLED EGGS - The was not so much 'love around the kitchen table' for Japan's beloved Kewpie (QP) mayonnaise recently. Second-quarter revenues...

Campbell Gunn

After Covid: The Future for Japanese Retail: Winners & Losers

No one really knows what will happen after the initial shock of the coronavirus fades away. Many observers in Japan, expert and otherwise, are...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing: The Big Disruption – and Opportunity – in the Next 5 Years

Retailing in Japan is about to enter a period of unprecedented change – the biggest disruption in its history. The causes are threefold: population...

Michael Causton

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