Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Deutschebank, one of Europe's biggest bank, is falling deeper into crisis. It has been called the 'Lehman Brothers of Europe', and Merkel has been vocal about not bailing it out. MCorp Review believes the German Chancellor will eventually eat her words and bail out the iconic bank, but there are many past examples (UBS, ING) that indicates that: 1) Deutsche will further divest its assets in Asia; and 2) the people who buy those assets do not necessarily do well.Hence, we highlight the risk of the Tisco-Deutsche brokerage partnership unraveling in Thailand, which would benefit rival Thanachart. Our favorite bank remains SCB. Like Deutsche, SCB has some history with derivatives, and it is certainly in a different league from Deutsche's Thai partner Tisco.

Deutschebank, one of Europe's biggest bank, is falling deeper into crisis. It has been called the 'Lehman Brothers of Europe', and Merkel has been vocal about not bailing it out. MCorp Review believes the German Chancellor will eventually eat her words and bail out the iconic bank, but there are many past examples (UBS, ING) that indicates that: 1) Deutsche will further divest its assets in Asia; and 2) the people who buy those assets do not necessarily do well.Hence, we highlight the risk of the Tisco-Deutsche brokerage partnership unraveling in Thailand, which would benefit rival Thanachart. Our favorite bank remains SCB. Like Deutsche, SCB has some history with derivatives, and it is certainly in a different league from Deutsche's Thai partner Tisco.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Alliance Bank Malaysia / Equity Bottom-Up

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in Malaysia. Or at least, not yet &ndash; not fully.There are few banks in Asia-Pacific that show a similar magnitude and steady decline in NPLs over the past nine years. From 2007 to 2015 (fiscal year ends in March), AFG&rsquo;s NPL ratio declined from 10.8% to 1.0%. This is a 91% decline over the periodThis has been a key driver in the bank&rsquo;s ability to see profit up nearly 400% over the period, as credit costs became less onerous. But what&rsquo;s happened with market capitalization?This requires a closer look.More below the fold....&nbsp;

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in Malaysia. Or at least, not yet &ndash; not fully.There are few banks in Asia-Pacific that show a similar magnitude and steady decline in NPLs over the past nine years. From 2007 to 2015 (fiscal year ends in March), AFG&rsquo;s NPL ratio declined from 10.8% to 1.0%. This is a 91% decline over the periodThis has been a key driver in the bank&rsquo;s ability to see profit up nearly 400% over the period, as credit costs became less onerous. But what&rsquo;s happened with market capitalization?This requires a closer look.More below the fold....&nbsp;

AFG MK: Winning NPL profile in Asia, not being rewarded…Yet

Malaysia

RHB Capital Berhad provides commercial and merchant banking services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides finance and leasing services, invests in properties, and trades securities. RHB Capital also provides nominee, unit trust, asset management, and insurance services.

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RHB Capital Bhd (RHBC MK)

Sathorn Series 5: Deutsche's Doomsday

Deutschebank, one of Europe's biggest bank, is falling deeper into crisis. It has been called the 'Lehman Brothers of Europe', and Merkel has been...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

AFG MK: Winning NPL profile in Asia, not being rewarded…Yet

Our experience is that the credit cycle is more important than anything else for banks.This is not holding true for Alliance Financial Group, in...

Daniel Tabbush

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