Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.</li>
<li>By then, we expect Air, Defense &amp; Space revenues to double and the division's operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. </li>
<li>Given Japan's uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. </li>
</ul>


MHI is up nearly 60% year-to-date to 46x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-26 and 27x our EPS estimate for FY Mar-30.
By then, we expect Air, Defense &amp; Space revenues to double and the division's operating margin to rise from 10% to 15%, which is the likely cap on profitability. 
Given Japan's uncertain finances and the long time horizon that should already be discounted, we recommend profit taking. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smpp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44073:1" rel="noopener">SMPP Ltd</a> is planning to raise about US$476m through its upcoming IPO in India.</li>
<li>SMPP Ltd. designs and manufactures defence equipment, specialising in ammunition components and personal protection products for the Indian armed forces, police, and security agencies.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.</li>
</ul>



SMPP Ltd is planning to raise about US$476m through its upcoming IPO in India.
SMPP Ltd. designs and manufactures defence equipment, specialising in ammunition components and personal protection products for the Indian armed forces, police, and security agencies.
In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.


SMPP Ltd Pre-IPO - In the Right Space (Defence), at the Right Time but Growth Has Been Inconsistent

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a> currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rolls-royce-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22121:1" rel="noopener">Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN)</a> is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.</li>
<li>Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)</a>, respectively. </li>
</ul>



Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.

Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.
Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR), respectively. 


Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

<ul>
<li>Japan's top defense and aerospace contractor is being rerated to account for the limits on relying on the U.S. for defense in an alarming national security environment.</li>
<li>A reasonably optimistic scenario brings MHI's P/E ratio down to 22X in FY Mar-28, by which time Japan's defense spending is scheduled reach 2% of GDP.</li>
<li>The Trump administration wants Japan to spend more, but getting the budget through the national Diet is difficult enough as it is. </li>
</ul>


Japan's top defense and aerospace contractor is being rerated to account for the limits on relying on the U.S. for defense in an alarming national security environment.
A reasonably optimistic scenario brings MHI's P/E ratio down to 22X in FY Mar-28, by which time Japan's defense spending is scheduled reach 2% of GDP.
The Trump administration wants Japan to spend more, but getting the budget through the national Diet is difficult enough as it is. 


MHI (7011 JP): U.S. Presses Japan to Spend More on Defense

Germany

Rheinmetall AG is an automotive, electronics, defense, and engineering group. The Company produces automotive pumps and components to supply air, reduce emissions, and supply fuel, pistons for gasoline and diesel vehicle and stationary engines, bearings for engines and other applications and aluminum engine blocks, and offers aftermarket service to engine repair shops.

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Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)

MHI (7011 JP): Take Profits

Take profits, but don't short the stock without an obvious catalyst (high valuation doesn't count). Rising Japanese defense outlays should drive...

Scott Foster

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

SMPP Ltd Pre-IPO - In the Right Space (Defence), at the Right Time but Growth Has Been Inconsistent

SMPP Ltd is planning to raise about US$476m through its upcoming IPO in India. In this note, we look at the company's past performance.

Sumeet Singh

Glencore (GLEN): Fast-Exit from STOXX Europe50 In May 2025

Glencore (GLEN) is ranked ~79 as of 29 April. With only one day to go, the stock price needs to surge ~8% to avoid fast-exit. As a result, the...

Dimitris Ioannidis

MHI (7011 JP): U.S. Presses Japan to Spend More on Defense

Up 40% in the past month, but still reasonably valued on a 3-year view if Japan's defense spending rises and margins expand as expected. 22X...

Scott Foster

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