Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

Recently local articles mentioned that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16029:1" rel="noopener">Naver Corp (035420 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> are competing to buy the major shareholder's stake in Korea entertainment company $sm entertainment but if the worry about buying an entertainment company that never really makes consistent money bottom line was a worry to ROE or ROIC then why hasn't Kakao gone down as well?

Recently local articles mentioned that Naver Corp (035420 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS) are competing to buy the major shareholder's stake in Korea entertainment company $sm entertainment but if the worry about buying an entertainment company that never really makes consistent money bottom line was a worry to ROE or ROIC then why hasn't Kakao gone down as well?   

Kakao V. Naver - The New Unregulated Kings of Fintech

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Our investment process informs us that when our key questions are positively answered and when thesis threats are disproved, conviction in the thesis goes up. Very rarely has a thesis been confirmed so resoundingly, let alone in the first quarter of a public company. Growth in older cohorts and new geographies is rising while a sharp slowdown from the COVID surge isn’t materializing (yet). This morning's strong inflation number might give another entry point.<div class="content-highlight">Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</div>

Our investment process informs us that when our key questions are positively answered and when thesis threats are disproved, conviction in the thesis goes up. Very rarely has a thesis been confirmed so resoundingly, let alone in the first quarter of a public company. Growth in older cohorts and new geographies is rising while a sharp slowdown from the COVID surge isn’t materializing (yet). This morning's strong inflation number might give another entry point.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Founded in 2003 by the CEO Anthony Casalena, Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. Squarespace raised $300 million ($68.42 per share) in March 2021 from investors including Tiger Global, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity Management &amp; Research Company, valuing the company at nearly<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-squarespace-funding-idUSKBN2B832O" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> $10 billion. </a>Other major investors of the company include Accel, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic. Squarespace joins a list of numerous technology companies that have become public through the direct listing route, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/palantir-technologies-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27728:1" rel="noopener">Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/roblox-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29697:1" rel="noopener">ROBLOX Corp (RBLX US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coinbase-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32227:1" rel="noopener">Coinbase (COIN US)</a>. Squarespace's shareholders have registered to sell about 40.4 million common shares with the CEO Anthony Caslena holding a 68.2% stake. Squarespace is a one-stop-shop platform for websites creation, domains, e-commerce, and marketing tools for companies and organizations to manage their social media presence. The company generated sales of $621.2 million in 2020, up 28.1% YoY. Its sales growth accelerated by 31.3% YoY to $179.7 million in 1Q 2021. Although the company benefited from higher sales and gross margins, its operating margins declined from 12.7% in 2019 to 6.5% in 2020, which was caused by higher R&amp;D and sales &amp; marketing expenses.

Founded in 2003 by the CEO Anthony Casalena, Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. Squarespace raised $300 million ($68.42 per share) in March 2021 from investors including Tiger Global, D1 Capital Partners, and Fidelity Management &amp; Research Company, valuing the company at nearly $10 billion. Other major investors of the company include Accel, Index Ventures, and General Atlantic. Squarespace joins a list of numerous technology companies that have become public through the direct listing route, including Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US), ROBLOX Corp (RBLX US), and Coinbase (COIN US). Squarespace's shareholders have registered to sell about 40.4 million common shares with the CEO Anthony Caslena holding a 68.2% stake. Squarespace is a one-stop-shop platform for websites creation, domains, e-commerce, and marketing tools for companies and organizations to manage their social media presence. The company generated sales of $621.2 million in 2020, up 28.1% YoY. Its sales growth accelerated by 31.3% YoY to $179.7 million in 1Q 2021. Although the company benefited from higher sales and gross margins, its operating margins declined from 12.7% in 2019 to 6.5% in 2020, which was caused by higher R&amp;D and sales &amp; marketing expenses.

<div class="content-highlight">AppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares and at the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range ($85 per share), AppLovin would be valued at $30.4 billion. </div>Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively. We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%.

AppLovin announced its IPO price range of $75 to $85 per share. The company is selling 25 million shares and at the high end of the IPO price range, the company is aiming to raise $2.1 billion. At the high end of the IPO price range ($85 per share), AppLovin would be valued at $30.4 billion. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is EV of $35.1 billion, implied market cap of $35.7 billion, and implied target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% higher than the high end of the IPO price range of $85. We have a POSITIVE view of the AppLovin IPO. Our base case valuation of AppLovin is based on a 16x EV/S multiple (using 2021 sales estimate), which represents a 10% higher than the average EV/S multiple of the comps. It is also below the EV/S multiple of Unity Software and Roblox which trade at EV/S multiple of 26.8x and 19.2x, respectively. We estimate AppLovin to generate sales of $2.2 billion (up 51% YoY) and an operating profit of $65.2 million in 2021. From 2020 to 2025, we have assumed the company's sales to grow at a CAGR of 28.6%.

Roblox, an online gaming platform geared towards children, is poised to continue the accelerating usage and monetization triggered by the pandemic. Its business model produces a flywheel where its audience grows as new games are introduced, further incentivizing its user/developers to create more user generated content that strengthens the platform. A large, hyper engaged youth audience offers Roblox open-ended optionality around advertising, sponsorships, and other new monetization avenues. Already highly cash generative, Roblox is poised to invest in localization efforts to expand its global reach, while potentially introducing new metaverse-based gaming platforms for older demographics. 
Base Case Valuation: $30B Bull Case: $60B Bear Case: $10B
<div class="content-highlight">
Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  
</div>

Roblox, an online gaming platform geared towards children, is poised to continue the accelerating usage and monetization triggered by the pandemic. Its business model produces a flywheel where its audience grows as new games are introduced, further incentivizing its user/developers to create more user generated content that strengthens the platform. A large, hyper engaged youth audience offers Roblox open-ended optionality around advertising, sponsorships, and other new monetization avenues. Already highly cash generative, Roblox is poised to invest in localization efforts to expand its global reach, while potentially introducing new metaverse-based gaming platforms for older demographics. 
Base Case Valuation: $30B Bull Case: $60B Bear Case: $10B

Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  


Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

United States

Roblox Corporation provides entertainment products and services. The Company designs and develops a wide range of online games such as internet three-dimensional and tutorial games for kids, teens, and adults. Roblox serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ROBLOX (RBLX US)

Kakao V. Naver - The New Unregulated Kings of Fintech

If fintech is the flavor of 2H21, Naver should be strongly considered as another winner of this space where they will be unregulated for next 3 years.

Ken S. Kim

Roblox 1Q21: Growing Up

Resoundingly thesis confirming. Growth in older cohorts and new geographies is rising while a sharp slowdown from the COVID surge isn’t...

Aaron Gabin

Squarespace Direct Listing Preview

Squarespace is getting ready to complete its direct public listing on May 19 on the New York Stock Exchange. In this insight, we provide the key...

Douglas Kim

AppLovin IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of AppLovin is implied market cap of $35.7 billion and target price per share of $99.8. This represents 17% higher than the...

Douglas Kim

Roblox: If Its in the Game, Its in the Game

Roblox is set to IPO tomorrow. We think its a unique asset and are inclined to own this depending on how outlandish valuation turns out to be as...

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)