Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.</li>
<li>We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.</li>
<li>Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.</li>
</ul>


We believe there is significant evidence that global equities (MSCI ACWI) have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. Buys highlighted in global Technology, Discretionary, Real Estate, and Steel/Mining.
We discussed in our prior Int'l Compass (11/2/23) how the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency) was bullish, and a potent rally has ensued. We expect more upside ahead.
Now getting bullish 3+ month downtrend reversals and false breakdowns in the EURO STOXX 50, ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), MSCI EM (EEM-US), and EAFE (EFA-US). Major risk-on signals everywhere.


Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>There are two more weeks for the base date. As things stand, there could be six ADDs/DELs during the December 2023 review and probably two more intra-review changes after that.</li>
</ul>


The SE600 index is one of the most widely followed benchmark indices in Europe. This index is rebalanced on a quarterly basis.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes that could take place between now and the end of the December 2023 rebalance.
There are two more weeks for the base date. As things stand, there could be six ADDs/DELs during the December 2023 review and probably two more intra-review changes after that.


Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 6 ADDs/DELs and Two Intra-Review Changes Possible

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).</li>
<li>On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.</li>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI ACWI index ACWI-US briefly fell below major support at $90.50-$91.50, though we do not consider it a "decisive" breakdown and we now see a false breakdown (bullish).
On MSCI ACWI (local currency), a false breakdown appears to already be in place, which is bullish as long as the index does not break to a new low.
MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to hold above $36.50-$37 support, while MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US) and EAFE (EFA-US) remain above supports at $45 and $65-$66, respectively. Pullback is likely over.


Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>In Aug 2022, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zomato-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28820:1" rel="noopener">Zomato (ZOMATO IN)</a> completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.</li>
<li>Softbank then sold a part of its stake in Aug 2023, the rest of its stake will come out of lockup soon.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.</li>
</ul>


In Aug 2022, Zomato (ZOMATO IN) completed the acquisition of 91% of Blinkit’s outstanding shares via issuing its own shares. These shares were released from their lockup in Aug 2023.
Softbank then sold a part of its stake in Aug 2023, the rest of its stake will come out of lockup soon.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and recent updates.


Zomato Lock-Up - A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).</li>
<li>We estimate the company's operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.</li>
<li>Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. </li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share).
We estimate the company's operating margin to improve from 2.4% in 2022 to 13.2% in 2023 and 14.6% in 2024.
Although overall sales growth rate from 2020 to 2024 is lower for Instacart as compared to Uber and DoorDash, Instacart is having stronger growth in operating margins than its peers. 


United Kingdom

Deliveroo PLC provides software solutions. The Company offers an online food delivery platform which allows users to order meals from partner restaurants, grocery stores, and other food suppliers. Deliveroo serves customers worldwide.

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Deliveroo (ROO LN)

Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 6 ADDs/DELs and Two Intra-Review Changes Possible

The one-way for the 6 ADDs/DELs expected for December is around US$80mn. On average, there could be around 1.6 days to buy for the 6 ADDs and 1.2...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Zomato Lock-Up - A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release

Softbank had opted to sell only around half of its stake via a block to raise airing US$120m. The deal is very well flagged

Sumeet Singh

Instacart IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

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Year-End Rally Underway; Many Bullish Reversals/False Breakdowns; Buys: Tech, Cons. Disc., RE, Steel

There is significant evidence that global equities $ACWI have bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. It all started when we discussed that the...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Dec 23: 6 ADDs/DELs and Two Intra-Review Changes Possible

The one-way for the 6 ADDs/DELs expected for December is around US$80mn. On average, there could be around 1.6 days to buy for the 6 ADDs and 1.2...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Japan Bullishly Inflecting; Constructive Outlook Intact; Global Pullback Likely Over

​The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...

Vermilion Research

Zomato Lock-Up - A US$240m+ Softbank Linked Lockup Release

Softbank had opted to sell only around half of its stake via a block to raise airing US$120m. The deal is very well flagged

Sumeet Singh

Instacart IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Instacart is target price of $33.7 per share, which represents a 20% upside from the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

The MSCI $ACWI briefly fell below our $90.50 support but quickly reclaimed, suggesting a false breakdown and the likely end to this pullback in...