US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ryanair-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22127:1" rel="noopener">Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID)</a> raised its foreign ownership limit (FOL) from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, due to increasing EU national holdings over the last years.</li>
<li>The security is forecasted to be added to global standard in May and global all-world in September 2025 as it now has eligible foreign room after the FOL increase.</li>
<li>The security's free float is expected to rise from 50% to 80% in stoxx europe 600 and euro stoxx at the June 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



Ryanair Holdings (RYA ID) raised its foreign ownership limit (FOL) from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, due to increasing EU national holdings over the last years.
The security is forecasted to be added to global standard in May and global all-world in September 2025 as it now has eligible foreign room after the FOL increase.
The security's free float is expected to rise from 50% to 80% in stoxx europe 600 and euro stoxx at the June 2025 review.


Ryanair (RYA ID): Global Index Inclusion & EU Upweight Following Raised Foreign Ownership Limit

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. </li>
<li>​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.</li>
<li>​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.</li>
</ul>


Pre-Pandemic, Wizz Air traded on an equity value or market cap €43m-€44m per aircraft. However, it currently trades on only €9m per aircraft using its March 2025 fleet. 
​Key issues need to addressed to convince on the “right” to more than double fleet to 500 aircraft.
​We do not share equity issuance concerns – proper inspection illustrates leverage as a margin challenge not a balance sheet challenge.


<ul>
<li>Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.</li>
<li>​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.</li>
<li>Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.</li>
</ul>


Latest RDC fare data deep dive suggests scope for negative surprises at easyJet and Wizz Air - we publish a detailed analysis across booking windows.
​easyJet fare data suggest potential for late-market disappointment, albeit winter prospects more encouraging.
Wizz Air fare data cast doubt on hopes for fare growth.


European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

<ul>
<li>Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.</li>
<li>Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.</li>
<li>Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.</li>
</ul>


Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
Ryanair's cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.


Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

<ul>
<li>Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.</li>
<li>Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.</li>
<li>We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.</li>
</ul>


Latest fare data suggests an incrementally more concerning trend for Ryanair pricing from June.
Concerns over pricing continue to increase in Europe, following Lufthansa's profit warning last week.
We cut our FY25 net income by 9% to €2,289m albeit remain above consensus of €2,170m.


Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Ireland

Ryanair Holdings Plc is an Ireland-based ultra-low-cost airline group, serving as the parent company for several airlines including Buzz, Lauda Europe, Malta Air, Ryanair DAC, and Ryanair UK. It primarily operates short-haul, point-to-point flights across Europe and North Africa, offering low base fares and generating significant ancillary revenue from services like baggage, seating, and partner travel. The company is headquartered in Swords, County Dublin, Ireland, and was founded in 1984.

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Ryanair (0RYA LN)

Ryanair (RYA ID): Global Index Inclusion & EU Upweight Following Raised Foreign Ownership Limit

Ryanair's FOL increased from 50% to 80% on 7 March 2025, resulting in eligible foreign room and a forecasted inclusion in global indices for May...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Wizz Air - Fitness for 500?

Deep dive on Wizz Air's margin challenges and framing the key concerns management needs to address at its upcoming CMD on 1/2 October

Neil Glynn

European Airlines – Fare Data Suggests Risk to EasyJet/Wizz Peak Summer but Winter More Encouraging

Deep dive on peak summer/early winter fare data pinpoints potential negative surprises to expectations at easyJet and Wizz Air

Neil Glynn

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

We publish detailed analysis on Ryanair's pessimistic outlook, highlighting that FY25's performance simply reflects a normalization, and...

Neil Glynn

Ryanair - Pricing Appears to Be Softening; Re-Setting Profitability Expectations

Reflection of latest fare data in our Ryanair forecasts, with market pricing apparently softening further from June. We cut FY25 net income by 9%...

Neil Glynn

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